worldnews

🔹 The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) stepped back into the foreign exchange market to defend the city's long-standing currency peg to the U.S. dollar. The Hong Kong dollar slipped below the lower bound of HK$7.85 per USD, triggering immediate action from the central bank.
🔹 In response, HKMA sold HK$9.4 billion (approximately $1.2 billion USD) from its reserves to buy back the local currency and push its value up. This move also reduced liquidity in the banking system, pushing up interbank interest rates—significantly complicating the popular carry trade strategy, where investors borrow in low-interest Hong Kong dollars and convert them into higher-yielding U.S. dollars.

Cheap Hong Kong Dollar Bets Get More Expensive
📉 Until recently, traders could cheaply borrow Hong Kong dollars, convert them into U.S. dollars, and pocket the yield difference. But May and June’s extreme volatility brought this game to a halt. With tighter liquidity and rising interest rates, HKMA is rewriting the rules.
📌 During the previous intervention in May, HKMA faced the opposite issue—a strengthening Hong Kong dollar. Back then, they injected more HKD into the market, slashing lending rates close to zero and fueling a speculator’s dream. Now, the situation has reversed, and the environment is getting much tougher.

Peg Under Scrutiny, but No Changes for Now
📊 Hong Kong’s currency peg, in place since 1983, is a cornerstone of the city's financial system. But May 2025 saw the steepest drop in the HKD since the peg was established, raising questions about its long-term sustainability. Despite this, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu made it clear in early June: the peg isn’t going anywhere.
💬 “Maintaining the peg is crucial to our financial credibility,” Lee stated, aiming to calm market speculation.

Hong Kong Has the Firepower, But the Pressure Remains
💰 With foreign currency reserves exceeding $431 billion, HKMA has ample ammunition to defend the peg. However, carry trades remain tempting—the gap between U.S. and Hong Kong one-month interest rates is currently around 3.4%, drawing global investors into the game.

🧭 While the Hong Kong dollar has returned to its target range, the real question is: How long can it stay there?

#HongKong , #dollar , #economy , #worldnews , #forex

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2025. According to fresh data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, inflows amounted to just $52.8 billion, down from $79.9 billion in the final quarter of 2024.
🔹 This sharp decline in capital inflows coincides with growing uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariff policies. As businesses reconsider their strategies in response to changing import rules, many are holding off on major investments until clearer guidelines are established.

Temporary Slowdown or Alarming Trend?
Despite the worrying numbers, analysts caution that this slowdown might be temporary. Several major foreign firms are launching new manufacturing projects across the U.S., which could soon turn the tide. One notable example is Japan’s Nippon Steel, which plans to acquire US Steel in a $15 billion deal — a move expected to lift investment figures in upcoming quarters.
The decline in FDI also coincided with a record current account deficit, which reached $450.2 billion in Q1 2025. Companies rushed to import goods in advance of Trump’s proposed tariffs, putting further pressure on the trade balance.

Tariffs Undermine Dollar and Inflate Deficit
In addition to weakened FDI, America’s external trade faces serious strain. Imports surged to an all-time high of $1 trillion, driven by non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical goods. In contrast, service imports dipped slightly due to lower payments for intellectual property licenses.
Economists warn that the combination of a ballooning current account deficit and federal budget shortfalls could undermine the long-term confidence in the U.S. dollar as a safe haven.

Trump: Tariffs Bring Jobs Back to America
President Trump views the situation differently. He argues that aggressive tariffs are motivating companies to bring manufacturing back to U.S. soil, aligning with his “America First” policy to boost domestic industry.
However, economists like Paul Ashworth from Capital Economics remain cautious. While he acknowledges that uncertainty may have affected some investment decisions, he believes the Q1 drop in FDI could be attributed to one-off deals or isolated business transactions, rather than a broader systemic problem.

Still, Ashworth warned: “Prolonged uncertainty over tariffs may cause firms to delay investment even further, potentially weighing on future economic growth.”

#US , #economy , #TRUMP , #Tariffs , #worldnews

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

According to the latest forecast from JPMorgan, the U.S. tariff policy may lead to a painful scenario of stagflation — a toxic mix of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. This warning comes as the bank revises its 2025 U.S. GDP growth estimate down from 2% to just 1.3%.
In its semiannual economic outlook, JPMorgan stated that there is now a 40% probability of a recession in the second half of next year.

Economy Suffers Between Rising Prices and Slowing Growth
Stagflation — a nightmare scenario reminiscent of the 1970s — involves high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment, and is notoriously difficult to address using traditional policy tools. JPMorgan now sees this risk rising due to new tariffs introduced in April, which are likely to drive up both import and domestic production costs.
“The stagflationary impulse from higher tariffs was a key driver in our downward revision of the GDP forecast,” the bank stated. “We continue to see elevated recession risks.”

Bond Markets React – and the Fed May Delay Rate Cuts
Fears surrounding the impact of tariffs are already being reflected in bond markets. Yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries have risen to 3.8%, while 10-year yields are nearing 4.3%, indicating investors are reassessing inflation and interest rate expectations.
Despite this volatility, JPMorgan expects some stabilization by year-end:

🔹 2-year bonds: yields to drop to 3.5%

🔹 10-year bonds: expected to decline to 4.35%
However, the bank also warns of rising term premiums — the extra yield investors demand for holding long-term debt — which could increase by 40 to 50 basis points due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and waning interest from foreign buyers, including China, Japan, and the Federal Reserve itself.

Rate Cuts? Not Until December — and Slowly
While some market participants are betting on the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts later this year, JPMorgan remains cautious. With inflation still “sticky”, and tariffs adding upward pressure, the Fed is unlikely to act before December 2025.
🔸 The bank expects a gradual rate-cutting cycle of 100 basis points, extending into spring 2026.
Should the economy weaken more than anticipated, the Fed may need to respond more aggressively. But for now, JPMorgan is preparing for a measured, step-by-step recalibration.

Falling Dollar, Stronger Emerging Currencies? Likely
JPMorgan also offered a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, arguing that the greenback could weaken as foreign economies outperform the U.S. thanks to pro-growth international policies. Meanwhile, the U.S. leans toward protectionism and potentially isolationist policies, which may weigh on domestic expansion.
⚠️ The bank warns that the sheer size of the U.S. bond market may become harder to sustain if foreign buyers continue to pull back from U.S. assets.

Tech and AI Keep Equities Afloat
Not all outlooks are grim, though. JPMorgan remains bullish on U.S. equities, citing several reasons for optimism:

🔹 Strong consumer spending

🔹 Robust tech sector earnings

🔹 Persistent investor demand for stocks
Unless there’s a major geopolitical or political shock, JPMorgan believes that technology and AI-driven growth will continue to support equity markets.

#JPMorgan , #Inflation , #US , #economy , #worldnews

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

The U.S. economy is flashing serious warning signs, and the Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to cut interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is preparing to testify before Congress this week, as tension builds across markets and political lines.

🔹 Economic Warning: LEI Index Drops Again

According to The Conference Board, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for the sixth consecutive month in May—this time by 0.1%. It is now 16% below its peak, reaching the lowest level in nine years. The current pace of decline has historically been a reliable indicator of an impending recession.
📉 Over the past 39 months, the LEI has declined in 37—one of the worst streaks on record. Every time something similar has occurred since 1960, a recession has followed.

🔹 Powell Under Fire in Congress

Jerome Powell will testify this week before both chambers of Congress. While these hearings are routine, this time the pressure is anything but ordinary. Powell faces criticism from both sides of the aisle—and even from within the Fed itself.

🔹 Trump-Appointed Fed Officials Call for July Rate Cut

Two key Fed members—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, both appointed by former President Trump—have now publicly called for rate cuts starting in July. Bowman presented her case in Prague, while Waller echoed her stance on CNBC.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian noted: “Political influence is beginning to creep into the FOMC.” He added that the synchronized timing of two Republican-leaning governors advocating a July cut is no coincidence.

🔹 Trump Allies Push for Aggressive Cuts, Powell Holds Steady

While Trump and his inner circle want dramatic cuts of up to two percentage points, Powell and Waller favor a more cautious approach. “I want to start slow,” Waller said. Even the Fed’s latest projections suggest a target rate around 3%, only modestly below current levels.
📊 History shows that cutting rates too quickly can backfire. When the Fed slashed rates by 1% last fall, bond yields actually rose—driven by market fears of rekindled inflation.

🔹 Powell Resignation Rumors Swirl

Bill Pulte, head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, posted on X that “Powell’s immediate resignation is imminent,” claiming Powell shows “clear political bias” against President Trump. Powell has not responded, but unity within the Fed appears increasingly fractured.

🔹 Pressure from the Left, Too

Senator Elizabeth Warren is also calling for lower rates, though for different reasons than the Republicans. Powell is expected to face tough questioning from both sides during his congressional testimony—Republicans demanding action, and Democrats urging urgency.

#Fed , #JeromePowell , #FederalReserve , #USmarket , #worldnews

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang has officially begun a large-scale selloff of his company shares. Under a pre-approved 10b5-1 trading plan established in March 2025, Huang could gradually sell up to 6 million shares by the end of the year – a total worth approximately $865 million.
🔹 Huang has already sold 100,000 shares, netting $14.4 million in two batches.

🔹 He also filed to sell an additional 50,000 shares in the coming days.

🔹 Despite the big numbers, these sales represent less than 1% of his total holdings, which amount to nearly 900 million shares of Nvidia stock.

10b5-1 Trading Plan: Transparent and Legal
The 10b5-1 plan allows executives to sell shares at predetermined times, even if they possess confidential or market-sensitive information. This structure prevents accusations of insider trading and shows investors that the transactions are pre-planned and not reactive to market events.
Nvidia publicly disclosed the plan, ensuring clarity and helping investors understand that Huang's sales are part of a long-term financial strategy.

Board Member Mark Stevens Also Sells – Without a Pre-Set Plan
Nvidia board member and billionaire investor Mark Stevens has also joined the insider selling wave. In June, Stevens sold over 600,000 shares, earning around $88 million – but unlike Huang, he did not use a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan.
🔹 Stevens has more flexibility but faces greater scrutiny, as ad hoc trading may raise concerns over insider knowledge.

🔹 He has previously filed to sell up to 4 million shares, potentially worth $550 million depending on market value.

🔹 So far, he's already sold over 2 million shares as part of a broader portfolio rebalancing.
These types of real-time, discretionary trades are completely legal and fairly common among board members and major investors. However, they lack the built-in safeguards of formal trading plans and may appear more opportunistic.

What Does This Mean for Nvidia?
While executive stock sales can sometimes rattle investors, in this case, they appear to be strategic and expected.
Both Huang and Stevens still hold the vast majority of their wealth in Nvidia shares. The company continues to rank among the most valuable in the world, fueled by its leadership in AI chip innovation and surging demand across industries.

#NVIDIA , #stockmarket , #TechStocks , #insidertrading , #worldnews

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

Madrid has negotiated an exemption from NATO’s ambitious defense target—Prime Minister Sánchez called it excessive and harmful to social stability.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced on Sunday that his country will not commit to NATO’s new goal of spending 5% of its GDP on defense by 2035. He described the target as “unnecessary” and “disproportionate.”
This decision comes after all 32 NATO member states reached a consensus on increasing defense budgets. However, Sánchez formally requested an exemption in a letter to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, warning that Spain’s participation in the summit could be disrupted otherwise.
🔹 Spain’s Argument: The Prime Minister stated that Spain already meets all of its NATO obligations in terms of personnel and equipment with defense spending at just 2.1% of GDP. Further budget increases, he warned, would threaten crucial social services such as pensions or require tax hikes.
🔹 Current Status: In 2023, Spain spent only 1.28% of its GDP on defense—NATO’s lowest. Nonetheless, Madrid has pledged to accelerate its progress toward the original NATO goal of 2% by the end of 2024.

✍️ Diplomatic Compromise Softens Commitment
Thanks to diplomatic negotiations, the final summit declaration wording was adjusted from “we commit” to “allies commit,” allowing countries like Spain to opt out of the collective pledge without violating the agreement.

Trump Pushes Europe for Higher Spending
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, along with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, has called for increasing military budgets, not only for traditional defense but also for cyber security and infrastructure to support military logistics. This would push total spending toward 5% of GDP. Trump warned that countries failing to meet the targets shouldn’t expect protection from the United States.
He also reiterated criticism of Spain’s low defense spending and issued a warning. However, Sánchez stood firm, saying that attempting to meet the 5% goal would come at too high a cost for Spanish citizens.

#NATO , #Geopolitics , #TRUMP , #worldnews , #Spain

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

The UK government has unveiled an ambitious industrial strategy for 2025–2035 aimed at significantly boosting economic growth. A key measure will be to cut electricity costs for energy-intensive businesses by up to 25% by 2027, providing relief to more than 7,000 companies and enhancing their global competitiveness.

🔌 Relief for Manufacturers, a Boost for the Economy
High energy prices have long been a drag on British industry. The new strategy will offer businesses a reduction of up to £40 per megawatt-hour and significant discounts on network charges. The goal is to soften the impact of climate-related levies and bolster the UK’s ability to compete with countries like the US and EU member states, which are already heavily supporting their industries.
The government promises that these energy cost reductions will not be funded by taxpayers or households, but rather through a transformation of the energy system. Further details will be refined following consultations with stakeholders and experts.

💼 Goal: One Million New Jobs and More Investment
The strategy aims to create over one million new jobs within the next decade, especially in high-potential sectors like clean energy, defense, financial services, and the creative industries. The government has also pledged £1.2 billion per year to support skills development in small and medium-sized enterprises through the British Business Bank.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described the plan as a “turning point” that offers businesses the long-term certainty they need for investment, innovation, and growth.

💬 Support and Criticism
Industrial groups including Make UK and the Confederation of British Industry welcomed the strategy as “a crucial step forward.” They praised the focus on better access to finance and solving the skilled labor shortage.
However, opposition Conservatives were critical. According to Andrew Bowie, the shadow energy minister, the government must address the root causes of high energy costs, rather than simply offering “handouts from taxpayers to keep businesses afloat.”

🏭 Supercharger Scheme and Faster Factory Connections
The government also plans to expand the British Industry Supercharger program, which already provides a 60% discount on network charges – to be increased to 90% after 2026. Additionally, the time it takes to connect new factories and projects to the energy grid will be shortened and simplified.

#UKGovernment , #worldnews , #economy , #UK

Stay one step ahead – follow our profile and stay informed about everything important in the world of cryptocurrencies!
Notice:
,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“