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Ryan Detrick of Carson Group is warning investors that history may be working against the market this September.
He pointed to data showing that when the S&P 500 rises more than 1 percent in August and sets at least five all-time highs, September has never ended positive.
That pattern has held since 1950, producing negative returns in every instance. The average decline has been 2.3 percent, with a median drop of 1.9 percent. Past examples include steep selloffs like September 2008, when the index fell nearly 9 percent during the financial crisis.
August 2025 checked all the boxes, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.9 percent to 6,508 and logging five new record highs.
According to Detrick, this puts the market in dangerous territory for September.
Bank of America data reinforces the concern, showing that September has been the weakest month for stocks historically, with declines in more than half of the years since 1928.
Analysts note that seasonal weakness often collides with broader economic uncertainty, amplifying volatility.
This year, traders are also weighing the Federal Reserve's next move, with markets pricing in a high likelihood of a rate cut.
Whether that offsets the historical trend remains to be seen.

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Wall Street is convinced – the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates in just 15 days. Yet, there’s no celebration in the markets. Investors are steering clear of risk, and the bond market is behaving in a way completely opposite to what textbooks suggest. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is surging toward the 5% mark – a level not seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.

Fed under pressure, but bonds refuse to follow
Traders currently expect total rate cuts of 50 basis points in 2025. There’s even a 34% probability that the Fed will lower rates by 75 basis points this year. Still, optimism is nowhere to be found.
Instead of relief, skepticism dominates – Treasury yields are climbing higher. In just five weeks, the U.S. Treasury has issued over $200 billion in new bonds, yet buyers are scarce. Investors demand stronger compensation for rising risks, confirmed by surging term premiums on 10-year bonds, now at their highest levels since 2014.
At the same time, core inflation has risen above 3% again. If the current pace continues, the dollar could lose more than 25% of its value over the next decade. Since 2020, it has already depreciated by around 25%, squeezing consumers while government spending continues to grow unchecked.

Global bond markets flash red
The U.S. is not alone in this struggle. The U.K. has already faced the consequences. The Bank of England cut rates five times in one year, hoping to support a weakening labor market. The result? Quite the opposite – yields on 30-year gilts surged above 5.70%, their highest since 1998. Investors rejected the central bank’s move and demanded higher returns for the increased risk.
Japan is experiencing a similar trend. Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds now stand above 3.20%, more than thirty times higher than in 2019. The global bond market is sending a clear message: central banks can no longer “buy” their way out of structural debt spirals.

Gold hits records as stocks bleed
While bond markets struggle, one asset remains unfazed – gold. Its price has climbed to a record $3,600 per ounce, marking a 33% increase since the beginning of the year. That’s more than triple the gains of the S&P 500.
Equities, however, are taking the hit. The Dow Jones fell 249 points on Tuesday, closing at 45,295. The S&P 500 dropped 0.69% to 6,415, while the Nasdaq slid 0.82% to 21,279. Big names also declined – Nvidia lost 2%, while Amazon and Apple both fell around 1%.
September has historically been a brutal month for equities, and after a strong summer rally – with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 2% in August, breaking through 6,500 for the first time and posting five new all-time highs – traders are locking in profits and shifting toward safer assets.

Stagflation emerges as reality
The Fed now faces a difficult dilemma. On one side, youth unemployment among those aged 16 to 24 has reached 10%, which could serve as justification for cutting rates. On the other side, inflation is accelerating, the labor market is weakening, and economic growth is slowing.
This combination is the nightmare scenario for central banks: stagflation. And it is now becoming a reality not only in the United States, but across global markets.

#WallStreet , #FederalReserve , #stockmarket , #GOLD , #S&P500

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U.S. stock futures dropped on Tuesdayfollowing Friday's negative moves. Futures of major benchmark indices were trading lower.
President Donald Trump warned on Monday that a record $15 trillion in planned investment in the U.S. would be "immediately cancelled" if courts are permitted to strike down his tariff policies.
The declaration comes in response to a recent U.S. appeals court ruling that deemed his administration's broad use of tariffs unconstitutional.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.27% and the two-year bond was at 3.65%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool's projections show markets pricing an 89.8% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates for the Sept. 17 decision.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.48% at $641.98, while the QQQ declined 0.65% to $566.69, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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The U.S. S&P 500 index on Thursday crossed the 6,500-point mark for the first time in history. Investors reacted to Nvidia’s quarterly results, which became the key driver of gains across the tech sector, while stronger-than-expected economic data added further optimism.

A Record Day on Wall Street
The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, surpassing its previous record high.
Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%,Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 81 points (0.2%).
CNBC data shows that despite some concerns, investors interpreted Nvidia’s results as confirmation that the AI boom remains intact.

Nvidia Lifts Markets, With a Few Warning Signs
Nvidia, which now makes up about 8% of the S&P 500, reported a 56% revenue increase, beating Wall Street expectations. Still, two elements caught attention:
Data center revenue came in slightly below forecasts.Guidance of $54 billion for the current quarter was only marginally above analysts’ $53.1 billion estimate (LSEG).
The stock fell before the open but later recovered, trading around 0.5% lower by midday. Importantly, Nvidia noted that its outlook does not include H20 chip sales to China.
Ben Reitzes of Melius Research told CNBC’s Squawk Box:

“Core growth outside China was very strong. In Q4, we expect another big jump, so the overall trajectory remains positive.”

Chipmakers and AI Stocks Rebound
After the report, analysts at JPMorgan, Citi, and Bernstein raised their price targets on Nvidia. The optimism spread across the semiconductor sector:
Broadcom and Micron Technology each gained about 3%.Snowflake, another AI-linked firm, soared 22% after beating Q2 earnings estimates.
This renewed confidence in technology stocks helped propel all major indexes higher.

Political Drama in Washington
Markets also moved against a backdrop of political turbulence. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. On Thursday, Cook responded by filing a lawsuit, with a federal court hearing expected Friday. The dispute added another layer of uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy.

Stronger GDP and Fed Expectations
The Commerce Department reported a revised 3.3% annualized GDP growth rate for Q2.
Above the previous 3.0% estimate.Stronger than the Dow Jones forecast of 3.1%.
The upbeat growth data bolstered investor sentiment ahead of Friday’s PCE inflation report. Economists expect a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.6% year-over-year increase.
According to Manish Kabra, head of U.S. equities and multi-asset strategy at Société Générale:

“We think the bigger driver for stocks will be the Fed and the rate-cut outlook. We forecast more than 100 basis points of cuts over the next 12 months.”

Markets Enter Uncharted Territory
The combination of Nvidia’s strong results, renewed AI momentum, robust GDP growth, and political uncertainty in Washington pushed the S&P 500 into record-breaking territory above 6,500 points.

#S&P500 , #NVIDIA , #AI , #stockmarket , #WallStreet

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US equities closed higher on Tuesday, shrugging off political turbulence stemming from President Donald Trump’s latest confrontation with the Federal Reserve.
Instead of focusing on political drama, investors turned their attention to Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, fueling optimism on Wall Street. According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 gained 0.41% to close at 6,465.94 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.44% to 21,544.27, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 135.60 points, finishing at 45,418.07.

Fed and Cook’s Dismissal
The tension was triggered by Trump’s decision to dismiss Fed board member Cook, accusing her of lying on a mortgage application. Cook responded that the president had no authority to remove her. The White House rejected her claim and insisted on her dismissal, which rattled the bond market more than equities.
Long-term Treasury yields climbed while short-term yields fell, steepening the curve. Traders interpreted this as a signal that rates could fall in the short term, but a politicized Fed might raise inflation risks over time. The US dollar weakened, with the dollar index falling 0.2%.

VIX Under Pressure: Betting on Calm
Despite political noise, volatility is evaporating. Traders and hedge funds have been piling into short bets on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).
According to CFTC data, as of August 19 net short positions in VIX futures reached 92,786 contracts – the highest since September 2022. The situation recalls February, when a period of market calm quickly reversed as trade war fears and recession concerns sparked turbulence. A similar scenario unfolded in August, when the yen carry trade imploded, shaking global assets.
Currently, the VIX remains below 15 – 24% lower than its yearly average. Last Friday it hit a fresh low after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled support for a September rate cut. Stocks rallied, keeping volatility suppressed. But the lower the VIX drifts, the greater the risk of a sharp reversal.

Historical Parallels: Nixon’s Shadow Over Trump
Trump’s move immediately drew comparisons to President Richard Nixon, who in 1972 pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to loosen monetary policy ahead of the election.
Craig Chan, head of FX strategy at Nomura, warned that Trump’s pressure on the Fed could “refocus investors on Nixon’s strategy.” While today’s environment includes floating exchange rates and the influence of cryptocurrencies, the parallel lies in a president pressuring the Fed during a key election year.
History shows the costs of Nixon’s interference were steep. The US dollar briefly strengthened after the 1972 election but fell 18% by mid-1973. Equities followed a similar path – the Dow Jones rose initially but then dropped 19% within a year and 44% by the second year. Yields on 10-year Treasuries surged 130 basis points to 7.58%, far above today’s ~4.3% level.

Warning Signs for Dollar and Gold
Chan cautioned that if investors begin to doubt the Fed’s independence, risks of a weaker US dollar could intensify. Markets may already be pricing this in: on Tuesday the dollar fell 0.3%, deepening its 2025 loss to nearly 10%.
Gold futures also climbed, as investors hedged against the risk of a politicized central bank lagging in its response to inflation pressures.

#S&P500 , #WallStreet , #stockmarket , #NVIDIA , #FederalReserve

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“