🔥Fed News ;🔥CME fed Likely on Hold Through September.
Rate Cuts Are a 2026 Story, Not a Summer Story.
The CME FedWatch tool is pricing an 83 percent probability that rates
stay unchanged through September. A 25 basis point cut has only a
16 percent chance by then. A 50 basis point cut is at 1 percent. The
market is no longer betting on imminent easing. The timeline has shifted.
This matters for crypto. The macro tailwind that pushed BTC from
63,000 to 79,000 was partly built on rate cut expectations. The
market was front-running the pivot. The pivot is not coming in June.
It is not coming in July. It may not come until late 2025 or early 2026.
The Fed is patient. Inflation is sticky. Oil is above 100. The economy
is growing at 2 percent. There is no urgency to cut.
Bitcoin is holding near 79,000 despite this. That is the signal. The bid
is not dependent on immediate rate cuts. The ETF inflows continue.
Corporate treasuries are buying. Supply is being absorbed. The
market is finding footing without the easy money narrative.
The risk is that the rate cut expectation gets pushed further out. If
September becomes December, risk assets may reprice. The longer
rates stay elevated, the more pressure builds on growth-sensitive
assets. Crypto has decoupled from tech stocks at times, but not
permanently.
$TST Observation. The Fed is on hold. The market knows it.
$BTC is holding
gains. That is relative strength. If the macro picture worsens, the
74,000 support will be tested. If it holds, the market is saying it does
not need rate cuts to continue. That is a bullish statement.
$PARTI #Fed #ratecuts #CME #BTC