Bitcoin Futures Traders De-Risk Ahead of FOMC, but Coinbase Premium Signals Spot Demand at $115K
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin futures open interest dropped $2B in five days, showing cautious positioning ahead of the Fed.
Binance taker volume fell to cycle lows, highlighting muted derivatives activity.
Coinbase premium is rising, suggesting US spot buyers are defending the $115,000 level.
Bitcoin Futures Market Shows Caution
Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $116,588 on Tuesday as futures traders scaled back exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17 policy decision.
Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest fell by $2 billion since Friday, sliding below $40 billion after briefly reaching $42 billion. The decline reflects de-risking as BTC hit $116,700 earlier this week.
Aggregate futures trading volumes remain subdued, while the funding rate — a measure of leverage costs in perpetual futures — is trending lower. On Tuesday’s London session, a sharp hourly funding spike mirrored patterns last seen on Aug. 14, when Bitcoin topped locally.
Analyst Maartunn highlighted that Binance hourly net taker volume has dropped below $50 million, compared to an average of $150 million, signaling that derivatives markets are effectively sidelined ahead of the Fed’s rate decision.
Coinbase Premium Points to Spot Buying
In contrast to futures markets, spot demand appears resilient. The Coinbase premium index — tracking BTC’s price difference on Coinbase vs. other exchanges — has climbed steadily since last Tuesday.
This divergence signals strong US-based buying demand, with buyers actively defending the $115,000 level, the largest cluster of demand since early August.
Sentiment Balances Between Fear and Confidence
Market sentiment indicators reflect this cautious optimism. The Bitcoin Bull Score, which measures momentum shifts, has rebounded to neutral (50) from a bearish 20 over the past four days, suggesting selling pressure is fading.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Risk Index — which tracks the likelihood of sharp pullbacks — is near cycle lows at 23%, a level that historically signals calmer trading environments. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted a similar setup last occurred in late 2023, just before Bitcoin began a major uptrend.
Outlook: FOMC as the Deciding Catalyst
With Bitcoin trading in a narrow band and spot buyers showing quiet strength, the Fed’s interest rate decision could provide the next breakout signal.
If BTC clears $117,000–$118,000 resistance, analysts say the path toward $120,000+ could open. Conversely, failure to sustain spot demand at $115,000 risks a slide back toward $113,000, according to Cointelegraph.