Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s weekly stochastic RSI has flashed its 9th bullish signal this cycle.
Historically, these crossovers led to average rallies of 35%, implying upside toward $155,000.
Some models suggest Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 170 days, though short-term liquidity pressures remain.
The FOMC’s Sept. 17 interest rate decision could be the next decisive catalyst.
Bitcoin Consolidates Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady above $115,000, with immediate resistance clustered around the $117,000–$118,000 zone. Traders are watching closely as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to announce its first interest rate cut of 2025 this week.
Market optimism has been buoyed by technical signals. Crypto investor Jelle highlighted that the weekly stochastic relative strength index (RSI) has just turned bullish — the ninth such crossover this cycle. Historically, each of the prior eight signals has triggered an average rally of 35%, which, if repeated, could push BTC toward $155,000.
Analysts Debate $155K–$200K Potential
Not all forecasts rely on chart patterns. Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson argued that while he doesn’t place much weight on technical analysis, repeating cycle behaviors remain a strong roadmap. His model suggests Bitcoin could reach $200,000 within 170 days, giving such an outcome better than 50% odds.
However, short-term caution persists. Analyst Skew pointed out that new ask-bid liquidity clusters near $116,000 signal heavy positioning ahead of the Fed decision. He warned that the “top-heavy” setup could reflect market maker manipulation rather than organic demand.
Momentum vs. Macro Headwinds
The broader market remains divided. According to CryptoQuant, 8 of 10 bull market indicators have already turned bearish, hinting at cooling momentum. Yet other traders stress that the macro backdrop still favors Bitcoin.
RookieXBT noted that the Dollar Index sits at 15-year support, while equities and commodities remain strong — the S&P 500 is up 12% this year, and gold has surged nearly 40%.
Onchain signals also look constructive. Trader Darkfost said short-term holder whales are back in profit after defending the $108,000–$109,000 support zone earlier this month, a dynamic that previously fueled rallies in March and April.
At a Crossroads
With Bitcoin trading less than 8% below all-time highs, the market is at an inflection point. If the latest RSI signal delivers like previous ones, Bitcoin could soon test $155,000–$200,000. But if the FOMC decision triggers fresh volatility, momentum could stall.
This week’s Fed outcome may ultimately decide whether Bitcoin enters its next cycle-defining breakout — or faces another period of consolidation, according to Cointelegraph.
