Key Takeaways
Bloomberg analysts assign 95% approval odds for an XRP ETF, with a decision expected in October.
CME XRP futures open interest surged 74% in the past month, signaling growing institutional participation.
Despite price momentum, XRPL adoption lags, with just 2% of tokenized Real World Assets (RWA).
XRP faces challenges sustaining a rally as stablecoin growth remains Ethereum-centric.
XRP Breaks $3 Before Rejection
XRP briefly touched $3.04 on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two weeks, before facing rejection. The move was fueled by speculation over a potential XRP ETF approval in the US and rising demand for XRP derivatives. Traders are now debating whether XRP can retest the $3.60 level last seen in July.
Institutional Demand Driving Futures Growth
Futures activity has surged:
XRP futures demand climbed 5% month-over-month to 2.69 billion XRP (~$7.91 billion).
CME XRP open interest jumped 74% to 386 million XRP, highlighting greater involvement from professional funds and market makers.
Current futures contracts trade at a 7% premium to spot, consistent with neutral leverage conditions. This suggests enthusiasm but not excessive speculation.
ETF Approval Odds at 95%
Bloomberg analysts estimate a 90–95% chance that the SEC will approve an XRP ETF by October. Alternative structures, such as Rex-Osprey’s ETF/ETN hybrids, may arrive even sooner, bypassing direct SEC approval.
The ETF narrative remains central to XRP’s price momentum. Without confirmation, the rally risks losing steam.
XRPL Adoption Still Weak
While Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin surpassed $700M in assets, nearly 90% of issuance is on Ethereum, limiting XRP Ledger demand. Meanwhile:
XRPL accounts for just 2% of tokenized RWAs, behind Avalanche, Stellar, and Aptos.
Total value locked (TVL) on XRPL sits near $100M, far below leading DeFi ecosystems.
This weak adoption raises concerns over whether XRP can sustain rallies beyond short-term ETF-driven speculation.
XRP Price Outlook
Bullish scenario: ETF approval could push XRP toward $3.60, breaking resistance from July.
Bearish scenario: Weak XRPL adoption and muted altcoin inflows may cap gains, keeping XRP rangebound.
XRP has underperformed the broader altcoin market, which advanced 14% since August, led by SOL (+28%), ADA (+19%), and ETH (+18%).
For now, XRP’s path to $3.60 appears possible — but ETF approval remains the key catalyst, according to Cointelegraph.
