CryptoQuant’s MVRV analysis suggests Bitcoin’s market cycle top could form by Sept. 10, with a potential price peak as early as late August amid Fed rate cut expectations.
Key Takeaways
CryptoQuant’s MVRV 365-day moving average shows Bitcoin may be nearing a market cycle top.
Analysts say the “two-humped camel” pattern mirrors the 2021 cycle.
The cycle top could form by Sept. 10, but the price peak might come as early as late August.
MVRV Suggests Bitcoin Is Nearing a Top
According to TechFlow, analysts at CryptoQuant highlighted that the 365-day moving average of the MVRV indicator – which measures Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value – is showing signs of a late-cycle peak.
The indicator is forming what analysts call a “two-humped camel” structure, similar to what was seen during the 2021 bull cycle, historically preceding major tops.
Timing the Peak: August or September?
Based on CryptoQuant’s six-month interval model, the market cycle top could form around September 10.
However, because MVRV is a lagging indicator, the actual BTC price peak could arrive earlier — as soon as late August.
This timeline aligns with expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and improving macro sentiment, both of which could fuel short-term bullish momentum before a cooling phase.
Implications for Traders
- Short-term upside possible before a cycle peak forms.
- Caution warranted as the MVRV structure historically signals overheating.
- Macro factors, including Fed policy shifts, could accelerate or delay the timing of the market top.
