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比特币的叙事正经历重要演变：除传统的“数字黄金”价值存储属性外，其作为能源存储载体的新功能日益凸显。

英伟达CEO黄仁勋的解读极具代表性。他指出，比特币实质上在将全球未被利用或过剩的能源，转化为一种可数字化储存、并自由转移的新型资产形式。这赋予了比特币更深层的意义——它不仅是价值容器，更成为连接能源世界与金融世界的创新纽带，为能源的时空转移和价值捕获提供了全新解决方案。#BTU #ETU #币圈

Recently, a bunch of people came out to short Bitcoin, which I find quite funny. I believe Bitcoin is digital gold, and there is not much difference from physical gold. Both emerged as alternatives due to the lack of trust in the US dollar.

In terms of value, Bitcoin has little actual value, but gold is similar except for a few industrial uses.

In terms of consensus, gold has a longer history, but Bitcoin has already become a mainstream asset allocation globally.

In terms of scarcity, Bitcoin is somewhat scarcer than gold; gold's annual increment is over 2%, while Bitcoin is less than 1%. However, if we consider the various projects and tokens diluting liquidity on the blockchain, they are about the same.

In terms of lifecycle, gold is definitely ahead; Bitcoin will be fully mined by 2140, and in theory, without miners to support it, the transaction system will collapse. However, there may be other businesses on the blockchain that can sustain it in the future. Moreover, no one reading this will live until 2140.

In terms of volatility, Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold, but greater volatility also means stronger potential for price increases, and its reactions to interest rates and liquidity are more pronounced.

In terms of investment options, there are far more choices with gold than with Bitcoin, as Bitcoin has a limited supply, halving every four years, and fierce competition, making it difficult to pick good assets.

This is roughly my understanding of Bitcoin and gold.

Currently, these two assets are actually on the same boat, having a long-term relationship of rising and falling together, so I only care about long-term trends, not short-term emotions.

Cognition is the ultimate weapon. In 2011, Roger Ver bet on Bitcoin during a time when everyone laughed, saying it would outperform gold, silver, stocks, and real estate. Back then, Bitcoin was only 10 dollars. Today, #BTC is over 120,000 dollars. This is not luck; it is a level of differentiation brought about by cognitive disparity! If cognition remains unchanged, even today, it will still resist new opportunities and lose direction...

Japan has long been the easiest source of cheap capital globally, but it may now become a trigger point for global volatility.

The last time yen carry trades underwent a large-scale unwind, Bitcoin formed a significant bottom against the backdrop of liquidity being pulled from risk assets.

The recent market situation is very strange, with short-term interest rate cut expectations rising, and the U.S. is expected to cut rates in December. However, inflation remains stubborn, geopolitical risks are increasing, and Japan is raising interest rates, leading to negative impacts. These are small negative factors, but they result in a significant drop in the market.

Currently, most old Bitcoin mining machines have fallen below the shutdown price, and miners are no longer making a profit, with the investment payback period exceeding 3 years.

The market is currently worried about MicroStrategy (MSTR) facing a crisis: the sharp decline in BTC has led this company to sell a large amount of BTC, which is likely also a factor for the big drop.

MSTR's total BTC position exceeds 650,000 (approximately 3% of the total Bitcoin supply) with an average position cost of about $74,400. However, analysis shows that BTC price would have to drop to $50,000 for the company to sell a significant amount of coins:
- mNAV significantly below 1.0, and the stock price may drop below $100
- Financing channels are essentially closed, unable to raise funds through the stock or bond markets
- The company may be forced to sell 10-20% of its Bitcoin to pay off upcoming debts
- Even so, the company's debt-to-asset ratio will still remain above 2.0, and it will not be insolvent

So it seems that there is not much to worry about. The buying strength seems decent; in the past week, a total of ten newly created wallets received 2,612 BTC from BitGo, worth approximately $231 million at current prices. The whale with ID 1011 has also transferred a large amount of funds to Binance. On-chain data shows an increase in whale proportion.

Therefore, our current judgment is:
We are approaching a temporary bottom, but we need to be cautious of a pullback to $80,000; however, $80,000 should be a temporary bottom, and there will definitely be new lows next year.

BTC needs to break through $110,000 and hold for 2 days to have a real reversal; otherwise, it’s all fake, which is obviously very difficult. Thus, the focus will still be on rebounds.

Pay attention to these major events this week that will influence the strength of the rebound:
Today at 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak;
Tomorrow at 21:15, U.S. November ADP employment numbers;
Thursday at 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (in ten thousand);
Friday at 23:00, U.S. PCE price index annual rate;
Friday at 23:00, U.S. December one-year inflation expectation preliminary value;
Friday at 23:00, U.S. December University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value.

The analysis is for reference only; adults must take responsibility for their decisions. Investment carries risks, please invest with spare funds and think independently!

【Don't ignore Japan's interest rate hikes anymore: it's influencing the direction of BTC】 The most underestimated macro variable in the past two years is not the Federal Reserve - but the Bank of Japan. Why? Because every little movement from the BOJ has a 'precision strike' effect on Bitcoin. Historical impact review:  2024/3 Japan's interest rate hike 10bp BTC: -2% ~ -3%  2024/7 The most intense 25bp BTC: instant halving drop -12% ~ -20%  2024/9 BOJ hints at further tightening BTC: -3% ~ -6%  2024/9 Late September New Prime Minister strengthens interest rate hike expectations BTC drops about -4% again  2025/1 Market has already priced in the interest rate hike BTC instead rises +2% ~ +3% The key point is: the market is not afraid of the rate hike itself, but of 'unexpected' events. Once Japan releases signals of tighter policy beyond expectations → the first to be hit will always be BTC. Today's decline? More of a repeat of the old script triggered by 'liquidity panic + not fully priced BOJ interest rate hike expectations'. Opinion: If the BOJ ultimately turns dovish, or the market confirms that the interest rate hike has been fully priced in, BTC will rebound very quickly. Conversely, if there is a 'sudden increase' - history has already told us what will happen. This is why the truly smart money is focused on Japan, not on headlines.

Market Overview
According to the latest market data, BNB (Binance Coin) is currently fluctuating between $877 and $893.
Short-term trend (24 hours): The price has shown a slight downward trend in the past 24 hours, with a decline of about 0.44% to 1.82%.
Medium-term trend (weekly): From a weekly perspective, BNB has performed strongly, with a price increase of about 6.64% to 7.62% over the past 7 days.
Long-term trend (monthly): However, compared to last month, there has been a significant pullback in price, with a decline of about 20%.
The current price is approximately 35% down from the historical high of about $1,375 set on October 12, 2025.
Currently, market technical indicators show divergence. Some short-term analyses (such as the 4-hour level) indicate a demand for pullbacks and downward trend pressure, while the monthly rating is 'buy'.
This contradiction suggests that the market may continue to oscillate or slightly dip in the short term, but in the long term, there is still potential for growth.

【bnb from 0.15 u to over 1000 u myth: Looking back in 2025, how much 'luck' did Binance really have?】

The story of Binance and the rise of BNB is one of the most legendary myths in the crypto world over the past decade:

ICO issuance price: 0.15 USD

Lowest price in 2017: about 0.10 USD

Price in 2025: fluctuating between hundreds to thousands of dollars

Highest increase: over ten thousand times

In a nutshell — investing 10,000 yuan early could turn into over a billion at its peak.

But looking back, did Binance achieve what it has today solely through strength? Or did it ride the wave of the times?

I believe both are true.

① Timing: Established at the peak of the biggest dividend

Binance went live in July 2017, and just over a month later, the 9·4 policy suddenly dropped.

Huobi and OK were pressed by regulators due to their RMB business and hit the pause button;
Binance, being light asset and without burdens, directly 'went all out overseas', successfully avoiding the storm.

② Location: While competitors hit the brakes, it was racing ahead
During that time, Huobi and OK were busy shutting down and rectifying;

Binance, however, was:

Crazy about listing coins
Crazy about increasing users
Promoting BNB
Offering rebates
Global expansion
While others hit the brakes, it pressed the accelerator all the way down.

③ People: Caught up in the super bull market of ICO

The second half of 2017 was a legendary frenzy:

Dozens of new projects launched every day

Global retail investors flooded into the market

Coin prices skyrocketed, trading demands exploded

Binance just happened to launch at the strongest wave —
Fast coin listings, low fees, and great experience, directly soaring to the sky.

④ Huge dividends during the regulatory vacuum period

2017–2020 belonged to the 'vacuum era' of global regulation,
Whoever runs fast is the king.

Binance happened to be in those years when it was easiest to grow in the industry.

⑤ Beyond luck, it's execution power
Without the speed, judgment, and execution power of CZ and He Yi,
It definitely wouldn't have made it to today relying solely on luck.

In summary:

The myth of Binance and BNB being ten thousand times is the ultimate product of timing + location + people. Luck allowed it to take off, execution power made it sustain.

Can BNB really rise to $10,000?
Current annual trading volume ≈ $845 billion, 690 million independent addresses, and 2 million daily active users. The collaboration of BlackRock + Franklin Templeton + Ondo + VBNB ETF + NBNB is expected to bring an incremental $400 billion. I asked AI for my #BNB valuation and it estimated ≈ $930–$1,292, which is too conservative. Tom Lee stated that we might see $20,000 directly in January next year! Looking forward to working together with Nina to grow stronger.

The period when the US stock market isn't really moving, Bitcoin has no direction, after looking around and thinking about it, it's better to just follow the real money and make a move.

This year, Bitcoin has lagged far behind both the US stock market and gold, making it almost the worst year in terms of ratio; let's see if it can make a comeback in the last month.

Benchmarking against a 25 trillion market value: How many times can Bitcoin rise? Jason Huang, founding partner of NDV (NextGen Digital Venture), stated during a call with Tiger Brokers on November 18 that after the Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2014, it has become an asset class recognized by mainstream financial markets, yielding reasonable returns over a two-and-a-half-year period within a trillion-dollar scale. He believes that Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million, compared to gold's asset scale of 23-25 trillion, has significant long-term growth potential, and after the ETF approval, its price has shifted to be demand-driven. Amid global political and economic instability and the Trump tariff war, Bitcoin and gold recovered earlier than the Nasdaq, and many view it as a 'digital gold' allocation; he remains optimistic about its future performance.

Conclusion: You hoard gold, I hoard Bitcoin, and we both have a wonderful life.

Currently, the market value of gold is 29 trillion, still the most popular investment target in the world.

My view is simple: Bitcoin is slowly challenging the status of gold...

Why?

Because Bitcoin is the strongest consensus digital gold.

"Bitcoin and Gold" are the preferred long-term hedging assets against inflation

The indices on Wall Street screens remain impressive, and beneath this apparent prosperity, Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and "global liquidity expert," mentioned in his latest interview that faced with a staggering $38 trillion in U.S. national debt and the refinancing cliff approaching in 2026, investors' long-term hedging assets may be limited to gold and Bitcoin.

Agree

Compared to gold's $25 trillion market capitalization: How many more times can Bitcoin grow?

Jason Huang, Founding Partner of NDV (NextGen Digital Venture), stated in an interview with Tiger Brokers on November 18th that since the Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2014, it has become a recognized asset class in the mainstream financial market. After two and a half years, the return is acceptable given its trillion-dollar scale. He believes that Bitcoin's fixed total supply of 21 million, compared to gold's $23-25 ​​trillion asset size, has significant long-term growth potential, and its price has shifted to demand-driven after the ETF's approval. Following global political and economic instability and Trump's tariff war, Bitcoin and gold recovered earlier than the Nasdaq, and many have adopted them as "digital gold" for portfolio allocation. He is optimistic about their future performance.

【How much can Bitcoin rise?】
Jason Huang, founding partner of NDV (NextGen Digital Venture), stated during a connection with Tiger Brokers on November 18 that:
Bitcoin will be officially accepted by mainstream finance after the ETF passes in January 2024, and its performance over a two-and-a-half-year period under a trillion-dollar scale is "acceptable".

He pointed out:
• The total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million coins
• The market value of gold is approximately 23–25 trillion USD
Compared to asset scales, Bitcoin still has huge upward potential in the long term.

Jason believes that after the ETF passes, Bitcoin's price has shifted from being "story-driven" to "demand-driven".
Amid global political and economic instability and the impact of Trump's tariff war, Bitcoin and gold have rebounded first, and are seen by more investors as "digital gold".
He expressed optimism about the medium to long-term trend.

If it rises too much, you sell; if it falls too much, you buy. That's just the way it is.

Perhaps the only thing that needs to be overcome in between is that you might be selling or buying on a slope, but at the same time, one must firmly believe that the act of printing money is an uncontrollable primal impulse of the entire world.

The long-term slope of currency will not change.

Wow, I only have a few hundred dollars.