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I have a feeling that Binance will restart the BUSD stablecoin, or change it to another name.
The three most profitable businesses are exchanges, public chains, and stablecoins, and right now, stablecoins are missing.
The largest exchange, the largest stablecoin application scenario, stablecoins generate hundreds of millions of dollars in profit each year.
Especially since the U.S. stablecoin legislation is about to pass, Binance has no reason not to restart the stablecoin.
The three most profitable businesses are exchanges, public chains, and stablecoins, and right now, stablecoins are missing.
The largest exchange, the largest stablecoin application scenario, stablecoins generate hundreds of millions of dollars in profit each year.
Especially since the U.S. stablecoin legislation is about to pass, Binance has no reason not to restart the stablecoin.
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Today I saw that JD's stablecoin will be the first to support stablecoin payments on JD's Hong Kong and Macau sites. This has led me to think about the different layers of the crypto space:
In the innermost layer, the crypto native inner cycle includes Bitcoin, on-chain, DeFi, etc. This area seems to be filling up quickly, with little space left.
The next layer out includes areas that traditional finance has not satisfied, such as exchanges, stablecoins, privacy, ICOs, etc. This area is dominated by crypto institutions and extends into traditional fields.
The layer beyond that is more about large institutions integrating crypto functionalities, such as Twitter integrating NFT avatars, JD integrating stablecoin payments, and Futu Tiger integrating OTC and trading, etc. Historically, there have been many attempts in this area, but most have failed.
Looking back, trying to use the innermost layer to do things in the outermost layer, such as disrupting social media, now seems destined to fail; conversely, trying to use the outermost layer to do crypto is also mostly destined to fail.
Currently, the industry has developed to a stage where the second and third layers are eroding each other, and the real hope still lies in the second layer.
In the innermost layer, the crypto native inner cycle includes Bitcoin, on-chain, DeFi, etc. This area seems to be filling up quickly, with little space left.
The next layer out includes areas that traditional finance has not satisfied, such as exchanges, stablecoins, privacy, ICOs, etc. This area is dominated by crypto institutions and extends into traditional fields.
The layer beyond that is more about large institutions integrating crypto functionalities, such as Twitter integrating NFT avatars, JD integrating stablecoin payments, and Futu Tiger integrating OTC and trading, etc. Historically, there have been many attempts in this area, but most have failed.
Looking back, trying to use the innermost layer to do things in the outermost layer, such as disrupting social media, now seems destined to fail; conversely, trying to use the outermost layer to do crypto is also mostly destined to fail.
Currently, the industry has developed to a stage where the second and third layers are eroding each other, and the real hope still lies in the second layer.
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The only regions with global influence in the cryptocurrency world are the United States and the Greater Chinese area.
I feel that for the next four years, the hope for the cryptocurrency world still lies in the United States, especially with various DeFi and permissionless products. Regulatory relaxation is thorough, and the explosion of AI entrepreneurship will drive the cryptocurrency sector, opening up possibilities for stablecoins and bank deregulation.
The power of CEX in the Chinese region is too strong, hindering innovation. Compliance and conservatism are only suitable for large companies. Previously, the Hong Kong SFC said it does not welcome DeFi, and Singapore has also started to expel unlicensed institutions; Hong Kong is likely to do the same after nurturing them.
However, if the Democratic Party returns to power in the United States, there will definitely be a massive reckoning. The Trump family and their cryptocurrency partners will face severe consequences. In Asia, the continuity of policies in Hong Kong may be somewhat more stable.
I feel that for the next four years, the hope for the cryptocurrency world still lies in the United States, especially with various DeFi and permissionless products. Regulatory relaxation is thorough, and the explosion of AI entrepreneurship will drive the cryptocurrency sector, opening up possibilities for stablecoins and bank deregulation.
The power of CEX in the Chinese region is too strong, hindering innovation. Compliance and conservatism are only suitable for large companies. Previously, the Hong Kong SFC said it does not welcome DeFi, and Singapore has also started to expel unlicensed institutions; Hong Kong is likely to do the same after nurturing them.
However, if the Democratic Party returns to power in the United States, there will definitely be a massive reckoning. The Trump family and their cryptocurrency partners will face severe consequences. In Asia, the continuity of policies in Hong Kong may be somewhat more stable.
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After watching the interview, it turns out the last straw that broke Infini's back was the refund being stuck:
In May, we wanted to slowly stop this business, and the core reason was that our card refunds were very slow.
Generally, a normal international card refund takes about one to two weeks, but ours have taken four weeks, a month, or even a month and a half. We keep urging our upstream channels, but they just can't process the refunds. We are bombarded with customer complaints every day, and we feel very helpless because we are at the downstream of the industry. Apart from pushing the channels, there is nothing we can do; we have the will but no power.
It's not difficult to start a U card company; anyone with money, time, and patience can do it. The barriers to entry are low. If you want to be compliant, you have to spend money; but if you don't care about compliance, anyone can do it. Essentially, you just need a custodial company and find an upstream provider for a card group API. Once you connect to the API, you can issue cards.
Almost all cards on the market are done this way, but no one knows how many layers of upstream there are. Some may cooperate directly with card groups, while others may have layers upon layers of middlemen, like an onion, and it can even stack infinitely. For example, we could also create an API and open it up to you, and you could then create another API to open it up to others.
After a few months of working on U cards, I increasingly feel that Infini is regressing in the U card business. Personally, I hope to break the traditional payment barriers, but U cards turn stablecoins into USD, which goes to banks, and users then swipe their bank cards, effectively returning to the old path of traditional financial payments. This is also why we have decided not to continue.
For example, the refund issue mentioned before is very draining. U cards have indeed not changed any logic in this industry; it is just a traditional payment solution, not the ultimate solution. The ultimate solution in the future is to directly accept stablecoin payments.
In May, we wanted to slowly stop this business, and the core reason was that our card refunds were very slow.
Generally, a normal international card refund takes about one to two weeks, but ours have taken four weeks, a month, or even a month and a half. We keep urging our upstream channels, but they just can't process the refunds. We are bombarded with customer complaints every day, and we feel very helpless because we are at the downstream of the industry. Apart from pushing the channels, there is nothing we can do; we have the will but no power.
It's not difficult to start a U card company; anyone with money, time, and patience can do it. The barriers to entry are low. If you want to be compliant, you have to spend money; but if you don't care about compliance, anyone can do it. Essentially, you just need a custodial company and find an upstream provider for a card group API. Once you connect to the API, you can issue cards.
Almost all cards on the market are done this way, but no one knows how many layers of upstream there are. Some may cooperate directly with card groups, while others may have layers upon layers of middlemen, like an onion, and it can even stack infinitely. For example, we could also create an API and open it up to you, and you could then create another API to open it up to others.
After a few months of working on U cards, I increasingly feel that Infini is regressing in the U card business. Personally, I hope to break the traditional payment barriers, but U cards turn stablecoins into USD, which goes to banks, and users then swipe their bank cards, effectively returning to the old path of traditional financial payments. This is also why we have decided not to continue.
For example, the refund issue mentioned before is very draining. U cards have indeed not changed any logic in this industry; it is just a traditional payment solution, not the ultimate solution. The ultimate solution in the future is to directly accept stablecoin payments.
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In the latest podcast, Arthur Hayes said:
Although he is the inventor of perpetual contracts, he does not trade contracts and basically buys spot directly.
Most of the altcoins you hold are unlikely to rise; this cycle ETH may perform better.
His firm currently invests mostly in Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum, Pendle, etc., with profits from altcoins reinvested to buy more Bitcoin.
Planning to raise funds to acquire some specific cryptocurrency companies and go public in the U.S. via SPAC.
https://t.co/nNCcIkiT9H
Although he is the inventor of perpetual contracts, he does not trade contracts and basically buys spot directly.
Most of the altcoins you hold are unlikely to rise; this cycle ETH may perform better.
His firm currently invests mostly in Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum, Pendle, etc., with profits from altcoins reinvested to buy more Bitcoin.
Planning to raise funds to acquire some specific cryptocurrency companies and go public in the U.S. via SPAC.
https://t.co/nNCcIkiT9H
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Once known as the 'Little Binance', KuCoin has gone through many ups and downs between China and the US over the years, and has now begun to fully pursue a compliance route, which is quite thought-provoking.
Today, KuCoin sent out a mass email stating that it will charge dormant fees for accounts without KYC, advises users to transfer their assets immediately, and emphasizes that users in the US and mainland China cannot complete KYC.
Today, KuCoin sent out a mass email stating that it will charge dormant fees for accounts without KYC, advises users to transfer their assets immediately, and emphasizes that users in the US and mainland China cannot complete KYC.
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Although Infini Card has closed, many say that the U Card is not a good business at all, but I still have some expectations. Perhaps it can truly drive cryptocurrency payments and large-scale applications in daily life, making the industry more than just a casino.
Today, I watched a podcast by the founder of Polkadot, and the host was very excited about the U Card right from the start, indicating that this demand is not limited to Simplified Chinese. Perhaps the third world indeed has a very large demand?
The core of what the host said was: "The card is particularly convenient for me, saving me the trouble of converting cryptocurrency into fiat currency. This card allows me to avoid the complex and troublesome cryptocurrency withdrawal process, so I am willing to pay a little fee for it."
(I have no understanding of the project the host referred to with this card, nor do I endorse it)
Original text:
Today, I watched a podcast by the founder of Polkadot, and the host was very excited about the U Card right from the start, indicating that this demand is not limited to Simplified Chinese. Perhaps the third world indeed has a very large demand?
The core of what the host said was: "The card is particularly convenient for me, saving me the trouble of converting cryptocurrency into fiat currency. This card allows me to avoid the complex and troublesome cryptocurrency withdrawal process, so I am willing to pay a little fee for it."
(I have no understanding of the project the host referred to with this card, nor do I endorse it)
Original text:
See original
Oh my, the Infini card, which had massive traffic and a good product experience, suddenly announced the complete shutdown of all card services!
The U card is indeed difficult, stuck in traditional finance; no matter how good your traffic experience is, it is of no use at all.
In the grassroots entrepreneurship of the crypto circle, we probably still have to return to being crypto native. But there are very few things that can be done as a native. Issuing tokens and exchanges are gone.
In an industry dilemma, those who want to do something don’t know what to do; malicious actors, however, take whatever they want.
The U card is indeed difficult, stuck in traditional finance; no matter how good your traffic experience is, it is of no use at all.
In the grassroots entrepreneurship of the crypto circle, we probably still have to return to being crypto native. But there are very few things that can be done as a native. Issuing tokens and exchanges are gone.
In an industry dilemma, those who want to do something don’t know what to do; malicious actors, however, take whatever they want.
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Arthur Hayes wrote an article today reviewing the history of stablecoins, which has great depth and discusses Circle's stock price. Here are some key points:
Initially, people bought and sold coins using fiat currency, and Bitfinex was the largest exchange outside of China for a long time, having a bank account in Hong Kong.
As banks began closing accounts of crypto companies, Bitfinex launched Tether/USDT in 2015, establishing it as the preferred 'dollar bank account' for the Chinese crypto community.
By 2017, Tether had achieved product-market fit. The rise of Ethereum and Binance provided USDT with faster transfers and more trading scenarios.
In addition to holding Bitcoin and other altcoins, there are three business models to create crypto wealth: mining, operating exchanges, and issuing stablecoins.
Circle's current valuation is significantly overestimated. But absolutely do not short Circle! New stocks will crush short sellers. If you believe the ratio of Circle to Coinbase is off, you might consider buying Coinbase.
Tether has proven that an on-chain bank that only holds people's funds and allows them to transfer can become the most profitable financial institution per capita in history. Stablecoins will eventually be adopted in a limited form by traditional banks.
New stablecoin issuers are in a very tough spot due to a lack of distribution channels. Circle pays 50% of its net interest income to Coinbase in exchange for distribution across the entire network.
Full text:
Initially, people bought and sold coins using fiat currency, and Bitfinex was the largest exchange outside of China for a long time, having a bank account in Hong Kong.
As banks began closing accounts of crypto companies, Bitfinex launched Tether/USDT in 2015, establishing it as the preferred 'dollar bank account' for the Chinese crypto community.
By 2017, Tether had achieved product-market fit. The rise of Ethereum and Binance provided USDT with faster transfers and more trading scenarios.
In addition to holding Bitcoin and other altcoins, there are three business models to create crypto wealth: mining, operating exchanges, and issuing stablecoins.
Circle's current valuation is significantly overestimated. But absolutely do not short Circle! New stocks will crush short sellers. If you believe the ratio of Circle to Coinbase is off, you might consider buying Coinbase.
Tether has proven that an on-chain bank that only holds people's funds and allows them to transfer can become the most profitable financial institution per capita in history. Stablecoins will eventually be adopted in a limited form by traditional banks.
New stablecoin issuers are in a very tough spot due to a lack of distribution channels. Circle pays 50% of its net interest income to Coinbase in exchange for distribution across the entire network.
Full text:
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Recently, there are still people talking about the domestic mining ban being lifted. Don't believe it. I understand that those who promote this are either deceiving or are just foolish. Confirmed bad news keeps coming, one scarier than the other. In the end, don't say that mining machines are gone; even personal safety cannot be guaranteed.
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Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan's latest article shows a starkly different attitude between Hong Kong and Singapore, one strongly supportive and the other fully restrictive, clearly competing for Singapore's Web3 companies to return to Hong Kong:
"Digital assets are driving traditional financial businesses; a second policy declaration will be released; stablecoins reflect the firewall and experimental field functions under the 'one country, two systems' principle, providing experience and reference for the country's finance."
https://www.fso.gov.hk/chi/blog/blog20250615.htm
"Digital assets are driving traditional financial businesses; a second policy declaration will be released; stablecoins reflect the firewall and experimental field functions under the 'one country, two systems' principle, providing experience and reference for the country's finance."
https://www.fso.gov.hk/chi/blog/blog20250615.htm
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Recently, I talked with several friends from the United States, and here are some feedbacks:
The cryptocurrency industry is concentrated in New York, AI is concentrated in California, traditional finance is leaning towards cryptocurrency, and internet entrepreneurs are moving to AI.
AI entrepreneurs look down on the cryptocurrency industry, and strangely, many developers working on ZK are transitioning to AI.
Some well-known cryptocurrency VCs in the U.S. have a shocking lack of DPL, really becoming big retail investors and bag holders, sincerely paying for their ideals.
The cryptocurrency industry is concentrated in New York, AI is concentrated in California, traditional finance is leaning towards cryptocurrency, and internet entrepreneurs are moving to AI.
AI entrepreneurs look down on the cryptocurrency industry, and strangely, many developers working on ZK are transitioning to AI.
Some well-known cryptocurrency VCs in the U.S. have a shocking lack of DPL, really becoming big retail investors and bag holders, sincerely paying for their ideals.
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Christian talked about his investment experience in the space, very detailed and exciting, sharing some key points with everyone:
While studying in school, I was also starting a business, the fund is called NextGen, achieving 375.5% NAV from March 2023 to March 2025, outperforming Bitcoin by 67.3%.
Now not much is being sold, the bull market hasn't reached its craziest point yet, so I want to wait a bit longer to avoid projects that are abandoned by the main players.
I will gradually start selling Bitcoin when it reaches $120,000. If Ethereum rises to $4800 or even breaks $5000, I might sell my holdings.
I heavily invested in GBTC and Coinbase, just when FTX collapsed and market sentiment was low, Coinbase dropped by as much as 90%, and GBTC also showed a huge negative premium. We judged this to be an irrational mispricing driven by sentiment rather than fundamental issues. Therefore, we made a significant bet that these two would outperform Bitcoin.
There are also two counterexamples — the native token of Arbitrum and GMX. These two are projects where I have incurred significant losses in my investments, and can be said to be among the few secondary targets that have actually caused me to lose a substantial amount so far.
Three factors — team dynamics, token structure control, and consensus building on concentration — will be my main judgment framework for investment projects.
The investment mindset can be summarized in two sentences: never let your position exceed the limit you can bear, keeping the investment position within 30% to 50% of total assets is a relatively comfortable state.
Trust logic, not emotions or beliefs. If the logic still holds, then you must stick to it and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations. Like when I invested in Coinbase, even though I suffered significant losses, I believed that its fundamental logic had not changed, so the more it dropped, the more I wanted to increase my position.
Full text:
https://t.co/QvCXBFXipX
Audio:
While studying in school, I was also starting a business, the fund is called NextGen, achieving 375.5% NAV from March 2023 to March 2025, outperforming Bitcoin by 67.3%.
Now not much is being sold, the bull market hasn't reached its craziest point yet, so I want to wait a bit longer to avoid projects that are abandoned by the main players.
I will gradually start selling Bitcoin when it reaches $120,000. If Ethereum rises to $4800 or even breaks $5000, I might sell my holdings.
I heavily invested in GBTC and Coinbase, just when FTX collapsed and market sentiment was low, Coinbase dropped by as much as 90%, and GBTC also showed a huge negative premium. We judged this to be an irrational mispricing driven by sentiment rather than fundamental issues. Therefore, we made a significant bet that these two would outperform Bitcoin.
There are also two counterexamples — the native token of Arbitrum and GMX. These two are projects where I have incurred significant losses in my investments, and can be said to be among the few secondary targets that have actually caused me to lose a substantial amount so far.
Three factors — team dynamics, token structure control, and consensus building on concentration — will be my main judgment framework for investment projects.
The investment mindset can be summarized in two sentences: never let your position exceed the limit you can bear, keeping the investment position within 30% to 50% of total assets is a relatively comfortable state.
Trust logic, not emotions or beliefs. If the logic still holds, then you must stick to it and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations. Like when I invested in Coinbase, even though I suffered significant losses, I believed that its fundamental logic had not changed, so the more it dropped, the more I wanted to increase my position.
Full text:
https://t.co/QvCXBFXipX
Audio:
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This year's three major projects issuing tokens
Pumpfun: Sold SOL for hundreds of millions in a year, issued tokens to raise 1 billion, a group of 20-year-old P kids, no beliefs just cash
Metamask (maybe together with linea): Coin and stock launch together, large imaginative space, but wallet updates are slow, growth is weak, fundamentals are poor
Poly prediction market: More inclined to follow a compliant route, but seeing Pumpfun making high profits may accelerate this
What else is everyone saying?
Pumpfun: Sold SOL for hundreds of millions in a year, issued tokens to raise 1 billion, a group of 20-year-old P kids, no beliefs just cash
Metamask (maybe together with linea): Coin and stock launch together, large imaginative space, but wallet updates are slow, growth is weak, fundamentals are poor
Poly prediction market: More inclined to follow a compliant route, but seeing Pumpfun making high profits may accelerate this
What else is everyone saying?
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To operate a compliant market in the cryptocurrency space, two conditions must be met: the market must be large enough, and the regulation must be lenient. The United States and South Korea meet these conditions the best, which is why platforms like Coinbase, Kraken, and Upbit are thriving.
Currently, Hong Kong has a market that is too small and overly strict regulations, making any compliant business in Hong Kong lose money in the short term. Therefore, it is more suitable for major investors to position themselves in advance; today, Ant Group has arrived. Everyone is looking forward to the future opening of the mainland Chinese market and the relaxation of regulations.
Currently, Hong Kong has a market that is too small and overly strict regulations, making any compliant business in Hong Kong lose money in the short term. Therefore, it is more suitable for major investors to position themselves in advance; today, Ant Group has arrived. Everyone is looking forward to the future opening of the mainland Chinese market and the relaxation of regulations.
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Circle's financial data is not good, but the stock price has skyrocketed
Friends say that many people around them who trade stocks are going crazy over cryptocurrency stocks
The current demand for cryptocurrency-themed stocks in the U.S. market is extremely strong
According to feedback from friends at Hong Kong OTC, many large investors are withdrawing funds by selling cryptocurrencies for fiat to trade stocks
On the other hand, the internal liquidity in Crypto is depleted and being drained, exchanges are under pressure, and small to medium-sized tokens that cannot link with cryptocurrency stocks are struggling even more
Friends say that many people around them who trade stocks are going crazy over cryptocurrency stocks
The current demand for cryptocurrency-themed stocks in the U.S. market is extremely strong
According to feedback from friends at Hong Kong OTC, many large investors are withdrawing funds by selling cryptocurrencies for fiat to trade stocks
On the other hand, the internal liquidity in Crypto is depleted and being drained, exchanges are under pressure, and small to medium-sized tokens that cannot link with cryptocurrency stocks are struggling even more
See original
Seeing Circle go public reminds me of the Chinese central bank's once-popular Digital Research Institute
Having started researching blockchain early on, the former leading figure Yao Qian is now in prison, while Zhou Xiaochuan argues that blockchain cannot support large-scale transactions (which, of course, is wrong in hindsight). The digital yuan is hardly used and has essentially been abandoned, while Hong Kong's stablecoin has to start from scratch with an unclear future.
One could say it started early but arrived late, which is both sad and lamentable.
Having started researching blockchain early on, the former leading figure Yao Qian is now in prison, while Zhou Xiaochuan argues that blockchain cannot support large-scale transactions (which, of course, is wrong in hindsight). The digital yuan is hardly used and has essentially been abandoned, while Hong Kong's stablecoin has to start from scratch with an unclear future.
One could say it started early but arrived late, which is both sad and lamentable.
See original
Seeing Circle go public reminds me of the once-popular Digital Research Institute of the People's Bank of China
Having started researching blockchain early on, former leading figure Yao Qian is now behind bars, while Zhou Xiaochuan argues that blockchain cannot support large-scale transactions (which, in hindsight, is obviously wrong). The digital yuan is hardly used today and has basically been abandoned, while Hong Kong's stablecoin has to start all over again with an unpromising outlook.
One could say they got up early but arrived late, which is both sad and lamentable.
Having started researching blockchain early on, former leading figure Yao Qian is now behind bars, while Zhou Xiaochuan argues that blockchain cannot support large-scale transactions (which, in hindsight, is obviously wrong). The digital yuan is hardly used today and has basically been abandoned, while Hong Kong's stablecoin has to start all over again with an unpromising outlook.
One could say they got up early but arrived late, which is both sad and lamentable.
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Singapore is estimated to be frightened by the panic and has urgently issued a clarification with two main points:
First, the main targets of regulation are payment-type and equity-type tokens, while governance-type and functional-type tokens are not affected and do not need to apply for a license.
Second, MAS stated that based on current information, the number of affected tokens is very small.
But the question arises, which CEX DEX MM does not involve U?
https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2025/mas-clarifies-regulatory-regime-for-digital-token-service-providers
First, the main targets of regulation are payment-type and equity-type tokens, while governance-type and functional-type tokens are not affected and do not need to apply for a license.
Second, MAS stated that based on current information, the number of affected tokens is very small.
But the question arises, which CEX DEX MM does not involve U?
https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2025/mas-clarifies-regulatory-regime-for-digital-token-service-providers
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