Web3彭于晏之几木

The missile ultimately fell onto encrypted assets.

Is Bitcoin's $BTC four-year cycle failing?
As we all know, Bitcoin has always exhibited a cyclical pattern of "four years of bull and bear markets" since its inception (see the upper part of Figure 1), but this time it seems to be changing.

The lower part of Figure 1 shows the sentiment indicator NUPL, reflecting the current price compared to the on-chain holding cost.

Value < 0 = Panic (Green)

Value > 0.75 = Greed (Purple)

Considering "cycle + sentiment", there are a few points worth noting:
🏷️If the old cycle is still valid, we should be approaching the top now, with the next emotional low expected in the second half of 2026;

However, this round of trends has shown abnormalities:
🏷️In the past, each bull market roughly experienced 700–900 days from low to high, but this time it has exceeded 900 days since December 2023;
🏷️More importantly, the sentiment indicator has never touched the greed area (0.75), and this year's highest has not exceeded 0.65, remaining in a moderate range.

Is this round going to break Bitcoin's "four-year law"?
#比特币 #比特币走势分析 #比特币减半

$ETH Ezi is feeling better, but I have also become smarter. I use one third of my position for swing trading, and when it rises quickly, I sell one third; when it drops, I buy back. Every upward movement of Ezi will have a big pullback. Of course, this risk involves missing out on one third of the position during the acceleration phase.

Ezi, let me love you once more! Can we not let me down this time! $ETH

Take off at $ETH !

The stage of $ETH is about to start, super spicy! At the same time, the call of 606eth2650 has been opened.

Good morning～ There is no value in going long on Bitcoin and Ethereum at this position, in my opinion, it's just a matter of when it will start to fall. When there is no obvious weakening, one can gradually buy PUT options for the end of this month and next month. From the perspective of Bitcoin, it shouldn't take too long, at most about a week, before a significant topping pattern appears. Looking at it from a smaller scale, Bitcoin might still rise by around two thousand USD, and opening a short position in futures contracts backed by 100,000 also has a good risk-reward ratio. The subsequent pullback can be of two types, if it's relatively strong, it will stop falling at 86,000+. $BTC $ETH

Generally, the last wave of ETH will have a slight increase, and then they will all pull back together. 1870+ or 1900+

If there is a black swan, the probability of it occurring this month is the highest. If it occurs, ETH could reach just over 1200, BNB around 400, and BTC over 60000 $ETH

I lost money on short orders last night, but the options did not move. I took back some short orders this afternoon (not too many positions), but I am still bearish. $ETH

I tend to continue to explore downward in the small levels. If $ETH bounces back to 1900 again, I will stop loss on the short position.

Recently saw Bitcoin $BTC rebound so it's probably safe to short in succession~ Of course, you can also choose to short $ETH , which is weaker. The final target is around 1300, as shown in image two: the first support below $ETH is around 1550-1600, which may have a rebound before heading towards 1300.

Long BTC. Stop loss at 86800, target 89500+

A little empty $PNUT , small stop loss, daily K opening price 0.2156

ETH short positions can be opened now, Bitcoin can too, but you know, ETH is weaker. $ETH

Pnut, don't say it, there might be an explosive spicy situation. Observe this slight pullback here. The time might be around 12 o'clock. If it moves similarly to the yellow line, you can add a little position at the red arrow. After adding, immediately set a stop loss.

(Just completed a pullback, it's best not to break the recent low again) $PNUT

Opened a little pnut, super short line. Hehe

A slight increase in $mubarakusdt long position, let's see what's going on. Stop loss might be around 0.125.

Come on, let's go long on BTC, stop loss at 83800

If ETH hasn't dropped by 8 AM the day after tomorrow, I will go short. Another option is to exit if it rebounds to the cost.