Mehmet Keskin

In the past 24 hours, the BTC price has stabilized around $105,700, with a slight increase of 0.2% and a trading volume of $69.5 billion.
Hot news includes: The U.S. Congress passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, sparking optimism in the market, with an expected liquidity injection of $150 to $200 billion, pushing BTC above $106,000.
Additionally, Square allows 4 million merchants to accept BTC payments with zero fees, and Fidelity has expanded support for Solana and Litecoin, indicating accelerated mainstream adoption.
Analyst Tom Lee predicts a sprint to $200,000 within 50 days; if it holds the support at $106,000 in the short term, it could trigger a short squeeze leading to a significant rise.
Overall, BTC is reigniting the bull market flame under favorable macro conditions and institutional entry, with huge potential for the future.
Bitcoin (BTC), as the world's first decentralized digital currency, was created by the mysterious figure Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, enabling peer-to-peer transactions through blockchain technology without the need for intermediaries, with a supply cap of 21 million coins, possessing scarcity and anti-inflation properties, and is hailed as "digital gold." It has not only disrupted the traditional financial system but has also propelled the development of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, currently valued at over $2.1 trillion, with a dominance rate of approximately 57.7%.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
$BNB
{future}(BNBUSDT)

📉 BTC Four Hour Analysis｜Rebound Critical Zone, 50% Probability of Further Decline
Current BTC price is approximately 105,894 USD, after rebounding from the low range of 101,000–102,000,
it has approached the key resistance zone of 105,500–106,200.
This zone, combined with previous highs and moving average resistance, is the main defensive area for bears.
Market sentiment has slightly repaired, but the volume is insufficient, and the rebound is clearly slowing down.
Currently, the four-hour level still maintains a clear downward structure,
consecutive Lower High + Lower Low indicates the downward trend has not been broken.
This rebound is a short-cycle repair, not a trend reversal.
To achieve a trend reversal, bulls must:
① Effectively break through and stabilize above 106,200;
② Volume confirmation (four-hour candlestick breaking through resistance).
If these two conditions are not met, the rebound is highly likely to end here.
Currently, the market is likely to face resistance and retreat around 106,000.
This probability is not a subjective judgment, but is supported by the following three points:
Trading volume has not synchronized to increase, indicating insufficient rebound momentum;
There is significant pressure from continuous trapped positions above;
US Treasury yields and the US dollar index remain strong, suppressing risk assets.
If the market is blocked in this range, it could fall to the 103,500 → 102,000 range.
At that time, it will test the strength of bull defense again.

Entry Range: 105,800–106,000
The current area is a short observation point.
Stop Loss: Above 106,500
If there is a volume breakout, exit in time.
Target Zone: 103,500 / 102,000
Take profits gradually, do not chase shorts.
If the price finds support in the 102,000–103,000 range,
it may attempt a light long position, with rebound targets looking at 105,000–106,000.
If it strongly breaks 106,200 and stabilizes,
it can establish a reversal signal,
at that time follow the trend to go long, targeting 109,500–112,000.
At this stage, the market is more likely to follow the "rebound → pressure → correction" path,
this is the highest probability rhythm (about 50%).
Before the bearish trend is broken, all rebounds are considered corrections,
it is essential to use light positions and strict stop losses to prevent being caught in false breakouts.
105,800–106,000 is the bearish defense line.
If it holds, the rebound ends; if it breaks, then discuss reversal. $BTC

Single Wallet Customer Acquisition Cost Cost Per Wallet CPW

Developed Markets: In developed markets like the United States and Western Europe, CPW often offers more predictable outcomes during bull markets, but the volatility is significant. In the first quarter, the CPW in the U.S. remained at $5.87, but as market sentiment shifted in the third quarter, costs soared nearly 4 times to $22.81. Western Europe exhibited a similar pattern, with even more extreme fluctuations, skyrocketing from $1.18 to $32.79, a 27-fold increase. While these markets can provide scale and quality during bull markets, the costs significantly increase when market sentiment turns bearish, reducing their sustainability during market downturns.

Emerging Markets: Display a different risk-return profile. Under favorable conditions, their CPW is extremely low, but cost fluctuations can be very dramatic. For example, in Latin America, the CPW dropped to nearly free at $0.56 in the first quarter, but by the third quarter, costs surged 60 times to $34.38, reflecting sudden liquidity constraints and changes in demand. Eastern Europe saw an even more astonishing increase, with CPW soaring from $0.21 to $20.79, a 99-fold rise, indicating that costs can spike sharply when market conditions worsen.

Southeast Asia: Demonstrates the most robust performance across various market cycles, with CPW fluctuations within 5 times, from $3.73 in the first quarter to $16.61 in the third quarter. This stability suggests that local market factors, adoption curves, or advertiser demand may create a more predictable environment, making it an extremely attractive region for brands looking to maintain stable costs across different macro conditions, especially for projects seeking to test product usage without being affected by market cycles.

Can we reach 10,000 followers this week?
#美国政府停摆 #BTC

Don't let sideways trading torment your reason.
When the market is stagnant, it's the easiest time to make mistakes.
Remember,
The market doesn't earn 'money from action', but 'money from waiting'.
During this time, the smartest approach is to observe with a light position, neither chasing nor gambling.
Opportunities never disappear; they only go to those who are patient.
When the market is moving sideways, you should look vertically—
calm your mind, review, and wait for signals.
$BTC