加密林汐

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When the Federal Reserve 'opens the hawk', the market catches a cold! The dollar rises, interest rate cuts are uncertain, and crypto enthusiasts need to fasten their seatbelts!

Recently, several senior executives from the Federal Reserve collectively came out to 'pour cold water', saying 'don't rush into interest rate cuts, let's wait and see!' Even Chairman Powell hinted that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed. The market originally believed that the probability of a rate cut in December was quite high, but now they have backed down—data shows the probability has increased from 30% to 44%, indicating that investors are feeling more uncertain.

What's more troubling is that the U.S. government's previous 'shutdown' has accumulated a pile of economic data, which will soon be released in a cluster. If this data 'explodes', it could turn the market upside down!

Personal Opinion:
Don't bet on interest rate cuts in the short term: The Federal Reserve is clearly playing 'expectation management'. They talk cautiously while actually trying to suppress market impulses. When the dollar is strong, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to come under pressure.
Data is the trump card: If the upcoming data shows inflation is still high, interest rate cuts may continue to be delayed, leading to increased volatility in the crypto market; but if economic data is disappointing, it may force the Federal Reserve to act quickly.
Opportunities in chaos: The more uncertain the market, the more likely 'panic selling' or 'unexpected rebounds' occur, posing risks for short-term players but possibly opportunities for regular investors.

What should retail investors do?
Watch and wait with light positions: Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait until the Federal Reserve's stance is clear or crucial data is released before taking action.
Pay attention to the dollar index: When the dollar is strong, crypto usually weakens; this is a simple rule.
Regular investors continue: If your position is not heavy, take advantage of the pullback to gradually accumulate, but don't go all in at once!
Hold mainstream coins steadily: During volatile periods, altcoins can easily collapse; BTC and ETH are more resilient.

The Federal Reserve's play is only at halftime; will there be interest rate cuts or will they hold steady? The data will provide the answer, but the answer may surprise you! Want to know at what point Lin Xi will start considering bottom-fishing? Follow me, enter the village, and when the market changes suddenly, I'll face it with you! We not only want to survive but also to win beautifully! #加密市场回调

When the policy barometer moves, the capital market's waves must follow suit—players who don't understand macroeconomics will eventually pay tuition in the crypto world!

Trump intensifies domestic schedule → The midterm elections are coming up, the old man will be campaigning nationwide, the political heat may affect market sentiment, policy uncertainty +1.

Hiring 50,000 for national security → Expanding the "in-system team," focusing on national security, future regulation on cryptocurrencies may be stricter, keep an eye on SEC developments!

Restarting the "food pyramid" → Is the dietary guideline going back 20 years? Agricultural stocks and food supply chains may fluctuate, but it has little direct relation to the crypto world, just watch the show.

Alaska oil extraction ban lifted → Directly overturned Biden's environmental agenda, traditional energy stocks will thrive, while new energy may face challenges. The energy costs of Bitcoin mining may be affected.

Food tariff exemptions → Prices at American supermarkets are too high, hurry to reduce tariffs to curb inflation, short-term benefits for consumer stocks, but beware of the risks to asset prices from dollar fluctuations!

"Southern Spear" anti-drug operation → The military will toughen its stance on the drug chain, cross-border payment monitoring will be stricter, be cautious of coins related to the dark web and mixers being targeted!

Tariff reductions on Latin American coffee/fruits → Minor trade cooperation repairs, stabilizing the supply chain = easing inflation, indirectly beneficial for the crypto world.

Signing a trade agreement with Argentina → South American ally +1, Argentina has always been pro-cryptocurrency, we may see more pilot projects for fiat-crypto channels in the future.

Trump is going to Davos for a meeting → Discussing trade with Switzerland, which is a European crypto hub, might push forward the compliance process.

What should retail investors do?
Short-term hedging: During periods of dense policy announcements, avoid high leverage, especially be wary of "regulatory surprise" black swan events.
Ambush energy concepts: The lifting of the oil ban is good for energy stocks, but don't forget that Bitcoin mining ETFs may benefit from low-cost electricity.
Keep an eye on inflation data: If tariff exemptions suppress inflation, the Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes, giving Bitcoin and altcoins a breather!
Focus on the Latin American market: Policies are loosening in Argentina and Brazil, these "crypto refugee zones," pay attention to local exchange platform tokens.

Finding direction in the fog of policy is not as good as closely following Lin Xi's review—every day I will provide the latest market news morning report + urgent market alerts in the village, helping you avoid pitfalls and seize alpha! #加密市场回调

The world has suffered from the 'dollar hegemony' for a long time! Now even the European big shots can't sit still and want to start a new initiative to compete with the Federal Reserve for discourse power!

Recently, European financial officials have been secretly discussing: can they unite countries outside of the U.S. to pool the dollars they hold together and create a 'mutual fund' to replace the dollar lending function of the Federal Reserve? Why? Because ever since Trump took office, the whole world fears that the U.S. will use the dollar as a 'weapon' to sanction others. Although the Federal Reserve often lent money to central banks in times of market crashes, Europeans are now worried that if Trump turns against them, this 'lifeline' could be cut off at any moment!

However, this sounds great, but the actual operational difficulty is extremely high—after all, the dollar is ultimately the 'favorite child' of the U.S., and trying to bypass it to create a new system is like trying to use someone else's faucet to build your own swimming pool; it’s not that simple.

Personal Opinion:
The loosening of dollar hegemony is a trend: Europe’s actions indicate that global trust in the dollar is wavering, which could accelerate 'de-dollarization' in the long term, but don't expect to overturn the dollar's status in the short term.
Opportunities in the cryptocurrency space are coming: this kind of game highlights the value of cryptocurrencies—decentralized and not controlled by any single country. If cracks in the traditional financial system widen, Bitcoin and stablecoins may become more important hedging tools.
Beware of short-term volatility: political games can easily trigger market panic, and retail investors must not blindly chase news or go All in!

What should retail investors do:
Hold hard currencies: allocate a portion of Bitcoin or gold, which are non-sovereign assets, to hedge against traditional financial risks.
Diversify holdings: don’t put all your bullets on one coin; a combination of mainstream coins and stablecoins is more prudent.
Pay attention to policy trends: especially Trump's monetary policy statements, which may directly affect the trends of the dollar and cryptocurrencies.
Maintain cash liquidity: opportunities arise from downturns, keep some funds for bottom fishing!

If you are worried about the collapse of dollar hegemony, would you choose to hold Bitcoin or gold? Let's chat in the comments! If you want to learn more 'no pitfalls' practical logic in the crypto space from Lin Xi, follow Lin Xi, and I will lay out the specifics in the village! #加密市场回调

$BTC Did everyone anticipate last night's plunge? Brothers, do you feel that the current market volatility is difficult to operate in, making people anxious and at a loss? Why not pay attention to Lin Xi, follow my lead, as Lin Xi will announce the specific entry times and real-time news in the village every day, allowing you to enjoy profits to the fullest! #加密市场回调

The economy is unevenly hot and cold, and interest rate cuts have become a foregone conclusion! The Federal Reserve's 'lifesaver' is about to be fed to the market.

Guggenheim, the asset management giant (managing 3.5 trillion yuan in super funds), recently had its Chief Investment Officer, Anne, speak out, discovering that the U.S. economy is becoming 'polarized'—ordinary people and small businesses are finding it increasingly difficult, while the wealthy and large companies are making a fortune. This state of 'half iceberg, half flame' may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December and continue next year! She even predicts that interest rates will drop to around 3% before 2026.

My opinion:
Don't be blinded by 'interest rate cuts': this round of cuts is not due to a strong economy, but a weak one! Layoffs in small businesses and a downgrade in consumption are the truth; the blockchain market will be influenced by traditional capital flows in the short term.
Beware of the 'looseness trap': the initial phase of the Federal Reserve's easing often accompanies severe market fluctuations; Bitcoin may drop before rising, and altcoins need to be carefully selected.
The long-term logic remains unchanged: institutional capital is still quietly positioning in crypto assets; every dip is an opportunity for regular investment.

Retail investor action list:
Keep at least 30% cash, waiting for potential buying opportunities after the Federal Reserve's announcement.
Focus on allocating anti-dip assets like BTC/ETH, avoiding overvalued altcoin projects.
Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes.
Set price alerts; stop-loss if it falls below key support levels.

Do you think interest rates will be cut in December? Leave your opinion in the comments! If you want to learn more about 'avoiding pitfalls' in the crypto space with Lin Xi, follow Lin Xi, and I will lay out specifics in the village! #代币化热潮

The expiration date of options is like a 'stress test' in the cryptocurrency world. A collective settlement of 5 billion dollars worth of chips—Is it the calm before the storm or the fuse for a new round of market activity?

Today, the derivatives exchange Deribt has a large number of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring—In simple terms, this means that the 'contract bets' made on price movements are about to settle. The total value of these contracts is close to 32 billion yuan, an astonishing scale!

The current market itself is a bit 'wobbly'; these expiring contracts may act like magnets, pulling the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum towards two key levels:
Bitcoin: The biggest pain point is $105,000; current price is $99,000, with bulls slightly in the lead.
Ethereum: The biggest pain point is $3,500, with a balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Lin Xi's viewpoint:
Short-term volatility is inevitable: Market makers often use option expirations to 'paint the door,' especially now that market confidence is low, making price swings more pronounced;
The Federal Reserve is the hidden BOSS: The interest rate decision in December is the ultimate barometer; all current fluctuations are just a 'rehearsal';
Don't be led by emotions: Data may seem bullish, but derivatives liquidation could trigger a chain reaction—be cautious about chasing highs!

Retail Investor Action Guide:
Position Traders: Leverage should not exceed 3 times; avoid the peak volatility period from 20:00 to 24:00 tonight.
HODLers: Place orders below 96,000 (BTC) and below 3,300 (ETH) to accumulate in batches.
Onlookers: Better to miss out than to be 'option cannon fodder'; wait until tomorrow when market sentiment is clearer before taking action.

Tonight, are you on the bull side or the bear side? Share your thoughts in the comments! If you're still not sure how to find entry and exit points, you can follow Lin Xi. I often analyze real-time opportunities in the village to help you find the right timing! #代币化热潮

The market is always the chessboard of big players and the battlefield of retail investors! Understanding the cost of whales is essential to know which way the wind blows.

Strategy Company: Holding 640,000 bitcoins, with an average cost of about $74,000, and now the bitcoin price is 31% higher than the cost, making a profit.
Bitmine Company: Holding 3.5 million ethers, with a cost of $4,020, and now the ether price is 20% lower than the cost, still losing money.
Forward Company: Hoarding 6.87 million SOL, with a cost of $232, and now the SOL price is 38% lower than the cost, deeply trapped.

Personal Opinion
Bitcoin big players are “as steady as a mountain,” with obvious cost advantages and limited room for a crash;
Ether and SOL big players are all underwater, short-term selling pressure may be small, but a rebound needs more positive stimulation;
Don’t be scared by “big players being trapped,” they are playing the long game, and may continue to buy the dip after a drop. Retail investors should be cautious of blindly following the trend!

What should retail investors do?
Learn to leverage: If bitcoin retraces to the big players' cost line, it may be an opportunity;
Don’t bet on a rebound: Being deeply trapped doesn’t mean ether and SOL will rise immediately, patiently wait for right-side signals;
Control positions: Invest spare money, don’t stake your life savings on “big players' cost theory,” market sentiment is crazier than data!

If you currently have some spare money, would you buy the dip on ether and SOL, or increase your position in bitcoin? Let me know in the comments! Want to know specific buy and sell points? Follow Lin Xi, and I will provide real-time reminders of specific buy and sell points and layout strategies in the village! #代币化热潮

The market is always guessing the Federal Reserve's thoughts, but in the past 24 hours, this guessing game has left everyone bruised.

In the last 24 hours, the market has been like a roller coaster. Many traders were originally betting that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates in December, but suddenly the tone changed—several Federal Reserve officials have consecutively hinted that they are "not in a hurry to lower rates." For example:
Musalem said: "The space for lowering rates is limited now; we cannot be too relaxed."
Harmak emphasized: "Interest rates must remain high to suppress inflation."
Kashkari was even more direct, stating that he opposed lowering rates last month, and we will have to see again in December.
As a result of this turmoil, the market's expectations for a rate cut in December plummeted from 63% to 50.7%, equivalent to the "probability of flipping a coin." The result was: US stocks fell, government bonds fell, and even the dollar did not benefit, with only government bond yields sneaking up a bit.

Personal Opinion & Retail Strategy:
Don't let short-term noise sway you: The Federal Reserve's "hard stance" is essentially driven by the fear of a rebound in inflation, but if economic data weakens, they will run faster than anyone else.
Three things retail investors should do:
Position Management: Don't place heavy bets on interest rate-sensitive assets; keep some cash for clear signals.
Focus on Data: Next month's non-farm employment and CPI data are the true guiding metrics for the Federal Reserve.
Diversify: Hold some gold, bitcoin, and other "decentralized assets" to hedge against policy fluctuation risks.

The market always gives sugar in times of despair and splashes cold water during optimism. Are you currently observing or buying the dip? Share your strategy in the comments! Follow Lin Xi for straightforward insights to unravel market puzzles and invest without losing your way! #加密市场观察

A fragment of data, and the market changes its face! The core economic data for the U.S. in October may be permanently lost due to the government shutdown farce, making this operation an epic "data black hole".

Originally scheduled for release on November 14, the U.S. inflation and unemployment data is now likely to be delayed. Trump's economic advisor has openly admitted that the unemployment rate for October may not be updated for the first time in 77 years, while the inflation data (CPI) is also hanging in the air. The most magical part is that internal messages from the White House are conflicting; some say employment data will be released as usual, while others say everything is frozen.

Personal Opinion
In my view, this is not a technical issue but a political game! When economic data becomes malleable, like clay that can be manipulated at will, the market will fall into a collective illusion. Especially for high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies, losing the anchor of inflation data will make the Fed's interest rate decisions rely more on behind-the-scenes lobbying, and Bitcoin is likely to be suddenly pumped as a safe-haven asset.

Retail Investor Strategy
Beware of short-term spikes: During the data vacuum period, it is easier for big players to create panic, so be sure to lower contract leverage.
Hoarders pick up chips: If panic selling is triggered due to missing data, BTC can be accumulated around 95,000.
Focus on alternative indicators: Shift to observe real-time data such as on-chain stablecoin liquidity and changes in miner holdings.

The "big play" of U.S. economic data is still ongoing, and what new situations will arise next is uncertain. Want to be the first to know the latest news and seize investment opportunities? Then hurry and follow Lin Xi, I will continue to bring you the most timely and professional analysis! #代币化热潮

$ETH In the midst of a sharp decline, layout in advance; there's no need to explain the strength! If you don't want to be stuck and worried, you need to find a knowledgeable guide to lead the way! Want to know how to layout specifically? Follow Lin Xi, I will be waiting for you in the village! #代币化热潮

Federal Reserve bigwigs say: A drop in the dollar is healthier, and high interest rates will need to persist! Fellow crypto enthusiasts, this is not a dollar collapse, but rather a "strong dollar" squeezing out bubbles!

Why is the dollar dropping?
Harmak said that the dollar rose too sharply last year, and the current pullback is just bringing the exchange rate back to a reasonable level, akin to reducing fever in an overheated market, so don’t panic!
What about interest rate policy?
The Federal Reserve is determined to continue high interest rates, why? Inflation is not yet dead! It's like cooking a pot of half-cooked rice; if the heat isn't enough, you have to keep steaming it. Want to lower interest rates in the short term? No way!
Impact on the crypto space?
A slightly weaker dollar theoretically benefits cryptocurrencies, but high interest rates are still a drag, and large capital entering the market remains cautious; don’t expect an immediate surge!

Personal Opinion
The dollar is still the "stabilizing anchor" in the long term.
Don’t be fooled by short-term fluctuations; the dollar's hegemonic status hasn’t changed, and the Fed still has plenty of cards to play. Want to buy the dip in the dollar? Better focus on who might be “collaterally damaged” by high interest rates!
Crypto space remains wary of the "liquidity trap."
The market feels like walking on a tightrope: on one side are speculative opportunities brought by a weaker dollar, and on the other, high interest rates are draining market liquidity. Retail investors should be cautious and avoid chasing highs!

What should retail investors do?
Short-term players: Pay attention to signals of a rebound in the dollar index; BTC and gold may move in tandem, so set stop losses!
Long-term holders: Keep investing regularly, but hold enough cash; waiting for the Fed to pivot is the right time to go in big!
Pitfall reminder: Don’t blindly believe in the "dollar collapse theory," and definitely don’t go all in on altcoins!

How long do you think a weak dollar can drive the crypto space? Share your thoughts in the comments! Want more hardcore analysis? Follow Lin Xi, I often provide insights and strategic layouts in the village, guiding you through the market! #代币化热潮

Data suddenly 'disappeared', the market was scared to collapse!

Dear crypto friends, did you see the recent crash in the crypto market last night? The direct reason is both laughable and frustrating - the U.S. government's inflation data actually 'struggled to be born'!

In simple terms, this situation is like:
The 'economic health report' that is supposed to be published every month could not be completed because the U.S. government was recently shut down, and the investigators couldn't go out to collect data, resulting in October's data being impossible to calculate! Although the government is now reopened, the Labor Department can only issue the old data for September first, and the CPI for October might forever be 'delayed'.

My view: The market fears not bad news, but the 'unknown'.
Where is the black swan?
Inflation data is a key basis for the Federal Reserve to decide whether to raise interest rates. Now that the data has suddenly disappeared, institutions are like 'driving blind' - they don't know how hot the economy is and cannot predict the Fed's next moves, so they simply dump their holdings to avoid risk!
Liquidity trap warning
If key data continues to be delayed in the future, the market will fall into blind trading, volatility will increase, and malicious control may occur frequently, making it easier for retail investors to be harvested.

What should retail investors do?
Don't bet on direction in the short term.
In a data vacuum, any sudden news could trigger violent spikes! Reducing positions and waiting is safer than trying to buy the dip.
Keep an eye on alternative indicators.
When official data is missing, focus on on-chain data, gold/U.S. stock trends to indirectly judge capital flows.
Keep your powder dry and wait for certainty signals.
If the September data revision exceeds expectations, or if the Federal Reserve steps in to 'rescue', it's not too late to allocate in batches.

What do you think about this 'data black swan'? Buy the dip or run away? Leave your operations in the comments! If you want to learn more 'no pitfall' practical logic in the crypto world from Lin Xi, follow Lin Xi, and I will lay out specifics in the village! #ETH走势分析

The Fed's mouth, the market's ghost! Daly's words have once again heightened the suspense around interest rate cuts.

Fed bigwig Daly just stated: "Will there be a rate cut in December? No one should make wild guesses right now!" This means that the current economic data hasn't provided enough signals; we need to observe inflation and employment further before making a decision. In plain terms, the Fed doesn't want to be tied to the market's rhythm, preferring to wait longer rather than risk making a hasty decision that could backfire.

Personal Opinion
If you ask me, there's actually a hidden meaning in this statement:
Delaying tactics: The Fed is waiting for a 'perfect data set' that proves inflation is under control without showing signs of economic decline, but where can one find perfect data so easily?
Expectation management: Intentionally not providing clear signals is to prevent the market from celebrating too early, which could complicate future actions.
Impact on the crypto space: In the short term, there is a high probability of continued fluctuations; as long as the expectations of rate cuts linger, large funds will hesitate to go all in, but once a rate cut is confirmed, the rebound could be more intense than expected!

What should retail investors do?
Don't bet on a single direction: Chasing upswings and downswings now is easy to get burned; position management is a lifesaver!
Keep a close eye on core data: Next week's US CPI and employment report are more substantial than listening to bigwigs speak.
Stock up on stable value coins: If your position isn't heavy, take advantage of fluctuations to gradually allocate BTC/ETH, and avoid leverage!

The more hesitant the market is, the clearer your strategy should be! Do you think the Fed will reveal an interest rate cut in December, or will they continue to be 'hawkish' to the end? Follow Lin Xi, join Lin Xi Village, and every day in the village we'll help you decode the data signals together and wait for the winds to come! #ETH走势分析