老杜论币

From the daily level, the bullish strength is evident, having shown an impressive performance with six consecutive bullish candles. The body of these six bullish candles is quite substantial, strongly showcasing abundant upward momentum. Although there were previously some bearish candles with long lower shadows, they were quickly reclaimed by subsequent upward movements, highlighting the solid reliability of the support below. The current trend of continuous bullish candles is still ongoing, firmly establishing the dominant position of bulls in the market.

In the 4-hour timeframe, the upward trend is very clear, with most candles being bullish and prices steadily rising, while the pullback during this period is minimal, basically not hindering the upward trend. Given the current strong market conditions, we might as well continue to adhere to the strategy of buying on dips, ready to seize the opportunity to enter long positions when prices pull back slightly.

Midnight operational strategy: buy directly at 109000-108500, with a target of 111000.

What is the key factor that determines whether trading can ultimately make money? 90% of traders have not understood this question! The key factor that determines whether trading can ultimately make money is 'strictly executing one's own trading system.' In the trading market, many people clearly have a stable and profitable trading system, but why are they still unable to achieve consistent profits? The main reason is 'not strictly executing one's own trading system.' How can one strictly execute their own trading system? 1. 100% trust in one's own trading system 1) The trading system must be tested and verified hundreds or thousands of times by oneself to finally confirm its ability to generate positive and stable profits. 2) Believe that as long as you strictly follow your own trading system, you can make money. 2. After developing trust in your own trading system, execute it 100% as per the trading system 1) When a profitable opportunity that meets the trading system appears in the market, open a position without hesitation, and do not get entangled. 2) Set stop-loss levels with peace of mind. 3) After opening a position and setting the stop-loss and exit time, it is best not to stare at the market (even when watching the market, there should be no emotional fluctuations in response to 'price fluctuations'). 4) Only check the market at the set exit time; at that point, profit can be harvested. Whether experiencing a roller coaster ride, being stopped out, or having a significant movement in the direction of the entry after being stopped out, there should be no emotional fluctuations. Accept all possible trading results calmly, let everything take its course, and regardless of profit or loss, keep your mind as calm as still water!

Currently, in the four-hour price trend of Bitcoin, there has been a situation of three consecutive bearish candles, and the price movement is quite difficult, with a fluctuation of about a thousand points. This raises questions: is the market going to move in small steps again, first slowly declining, and then gradually rising?

From the technical indicators, the MACD indicator shows a trend of forming a death cross, which means there is a possibility of a market pullback. The key now is to see how large the pullback fluctuation will be. Additionally, the CPI data will be announced tonight, and the market's fluctuations will likely be significant. If investors are uncertain about the market direction, it might be wise to wait for the CPI data to be released before deciding on a trading direction.

Evening trading strategy: go short around 110000 with a target of 107000.

Several hours after the CPI data is released, the U.S. Treasury will hold two crucial treasury bond auctions. On Thursday morning, $39 billion of 10-year treasury bonds will be sold, and on Friday morning, $22 billion of 30-year treasury bonds will be sold. These results may have significant implications for the direction of the economy, the Federal Reserve's response, and its interest rate policy. Furthermore, with Congress reviewing a comprehensive tax and spending bill, volatility in the U.S. bond market is bound to intensify. This week is destined to be highly volatile!!

The short-term moving average (MA7) of Bitcoin has been consistently rising, providing good support for the market. However, recently there have been patterns of doji and hammer candlesticks, which indicate that there may be a significant struggle between bullish and bearish forces in the market.
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​Looking at the trading volume, the current sentiment is relatively stable, with most investors on the sidelines. It is estimated that in the short term, the price will fluctuate back and forth within the current range, or may drop slightly and then rise a bit. For the future market, it is still recommended to wait until the price increases a bit before considering shorting. Investors need to be patient, holding onto their positions and waiting for a significant price drop.

Afternoon trading strategy: Short directly at 109500-110000, aiming for a target of 107500.
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The recent increase in Ethereum's price is quite remarkable. In just five days, the price surged from just over 2300 to around 2800, showing impressive performance. However, given its significant rise, chasing the price at this moment is not a wise move. From the current market conditions, a pullback is expected, with an initial target price around 2700.

Currently, the technical analysis of the market trend over the past 4 hours shows that the upward momentum is gradually weakening. Looking at the MACD indicator, its red and green bars are getting shorter, indicating that the buying power trying to push the price up is insufficient, and the upward momentum is gradually weakening. Next, looking at the KDJ indicator, it has already reached the overbought zone, and the values have been oscillating repeatedly, showing signs of fatigue. This indicates that in the short term, the selling power trying to push the price down is continuously accumulating, and the market is likely to experience significant corrective pressure.

The morning trading strategy is to short at 109600-110100, targeting 107600.

In the short term, Ethereum's price has once again risen above the high of 2800 in this hour. However, the trading volume has not significantly increased, at least when the price broke through this peak, the bullish momentum indicated by the MACD did not strengthen. According to my thoughts this morning, I believe the price might dip down a bit first.

Morning trading strategy: short directly at 2800-1040, targeting 2700.

Bitcoin has been consolidating and building a base in recent days, followed by a rapid surge, showing a significant bullish trend, and is now in a high-level sideways market. Bitcoin is testing the resistance around the high point near 110,000 but has pulled back without effectively breaking through, indicating that short-term upward pressure still exists, with Ethereum's movement synchronized with it.

On the four-hour level, after a price surge, the market has fluctuated downward, with space away from the lower support, so both bulls and bears need to pay attention to the retracement strength in the short term. In terms of candlestick patterns, the daily level shows a strong rebound after a previous sharp decline, with current high-level fluctuations. The four-hour candlestick shows small bearish candles, with balanced bullish and bearish forces, and the four-hour candlestick has continuously shown downward movement and lower lows, still in an adjustment phase. On the technical indicators, the four-hour MACD histogram has changed from red to green, with the fast and slow lines approaching the zero axis, indicating weakening momentum; the daily MACD fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis, and the overall trend has not completely reversed.

Midnight operational strategy is to short directly between 109,000 and 109,500, targeting 107,000.

The performance of the Ethereum market is drawing attention, with signs of a seemingly weak trend reappearing, prompting extensive discussion among market participants. Some investors believe that the current weakness of Ether may be a signal of a market reversal.
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​From the price trend perspective, Ether's current price has surpassed the high level of May. This breakthrough should have been a relatively positive signal, but the reality is that both bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition at this point. The bulls are attempting to leverage the momentum of the price breakthrough to further push up the Ether price and solidify the upward trend; meanwhile, the bears are doing everything possible to suppress it, trying to reverse the situation and trigger a price correction. In this entangled situation between bulls and bears, the following advice is given to investors with trading intentions: consider trying to short in the price range of $2780-$2800. The basis for this suggestion is that the current fierce battle between bulls and bears presents strong resistance in this range. The bear's strength may gain the upper hand here, leading to a price decline. The target price for shorting can be aimed at $2700, which is an important support level in previous price fluctuations. Once the price drops to this level, it is likely to trigger more selling pressure, causing the price to further dip.

The biggest question now is whether to seize this high price point or not. Will there be further instances of a rebound in the future?

Actually, we can set aside the question of whether there will be a rebound later. Logically speaking, prices will still have normal pullbacks. Therefore, Hongzhi suggests that everyone can first attempt a short-term short position. After all, it's not common for prices to reach a high point, so we should cherish the opportunity. If all else fails, it's also acceptable to exit at breakeven. If prices really do drop, won't we have made a profit!

The current Bitcoin price is around 109500, showing an overall downward trend with price below the moving average system and low market trading volume, indicating a sluggish trading sentiment.

In the short term, according to candlestick analysis, there are signs of price stabilization around 109250, but there is rebound pressure at 109384.1 (MA7) and 109428 (MA). The volume indicator shows low willingness for funds to enter the market, with insufficient upward momentum, which may lead to continued weak fluctuations. In addition, the short-term moving averages apply strong pressure, and the price may still test the support level of 109250. Although the candlestick patterns such as flat-bottoms and doji candles indicate a need for rebound, the extent of the rebound is limited due to insufficient funds.

For afternoon trading strategy, aim for short positions at 109500-110000 with a target of 107500.

The daily trend of Ethereum has been in a state of fluctuation, with price movements consistently constrained within the range of $2400 to $2800. Now, the price has risen to the upper edge of this range and is about to encounter a strong resistance area.

From a technical analysis and market sentiment perspective, due to significant selling pressure above, the likelihood of Ethereum's price breaking through $2800 in the short term is low. I believe it is more likely to fluctuate downwards in the future.

In terms of trading operations, it is recommended to primarily look for short-selling opportunities. Pay special attention to the two key resistance price levels of $2780 and $2850; if the price rebounds to these levels, it would be a good opportunity to open short positions.

From the 4-hour time frame, the pancake has formed an upward trend channel, and the price has been continuously rising, showing multiple bullish candles, successfully breaking through the previous high of $108,767. The opening of the Bollinger Bands is also expanding, and the price is currently operating above the upper Bollinger Band.
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​However, it is important to note that this rebound has not formed a standard three-sell structure; on the contrary, the price has returned to the previous range of fluctuations, showing a pattern similar to a two-sell. This suggests that in the short term, the price is likely to experience fluctuations up and down. Therefore, if you plan to trade short-term, you might consider looking for opportunities to short.
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​Morning trading idea: short directly between 110000-110500, with a target of 108000.

The price of Bitcoin has risen quite a bit. It's important to know that there is no market that only goes up without any drops, so a pullback is inevitable. As for specific operations, you can short when the price reaches 108,000, and let's set our target price at 105,000.

The methods of trading cryptocurrencies are actually quite simple and practical. Just focus on one type of pattern, only enter the market when you see the right opportunity, and don't place orders lightly when there is no matching pattern.
1. If prices rise quickly but fall slowly, it's likely that the market makers are accumulating assets. When there is a rapid increase followed by a slow decrease, it indicates that the market makers are secretly gathering chips in preparation for the next round of price increases.
2. If prices fall quickly but rise slowly, the market makers are likely offloading their assets. A fast drop followed by a slow rise means that the market makers are gradually selling their coins, and the market may soon enter a downturn.
3. At the top, if the trading volume is high, don’t rush to sell, as there may still be room for further increases; however, if the trading volume at the top is low, it’s time to run, indicating that the upward momentum is insufficient.
4. Trading cryptocurrencies is essentially trading on people's emotions; the market consensus is often reflected in the trading volume. The highs and lows of market sentiment can directly influence the rise and fall of coin prices, while the size of the trading volume can reflect the level of recognition and investment enthusiasm for that coin.

In the cryptocurrency space, there will always be some projects that stand out due to their unique background stories and large user communities. Let's work together and hope to achieve better returns!

After the rapid stretch of Bitcoin, there will inevitably be a pullback, and the previously laid short positions can continue to be held patiently.

A Survival Guide for Newbies in the Cryptocurrency World
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​1. Capital Preservation
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​Protect Your Principal: Your principal is your lifeline; think about whether you can bear the maximum loss before making any moves. The market is not short of opportunities, but lacks sustained capital.
​Compound Thinking: A daily return of 1% leads to 37 times a year; a single 100% loss means going to zero. Don't cling to fantasies of getting rich overnight.
​Dynamic Balance: Allocate funds in three parts: 50% mainstream coins, 30% potential altcoins, and 20% stablecoins. Rebalance when the proportion exceeds 20%.
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​2. Trading Discipline
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​Follow the Trend: The trend is your moat; monthly > weekly > daily charts; consistent direction is a good opportunity.
​Position Management: For beginner single assets, do not exceed 10%; adjust based on volatility for advanced trading, and use the Kelly Criterion to calculate ratios for experts.
​Buying and Selling Strategy: Use an inverted pyramid for scaling in; the first purchase should not exceed 20%, add 30% after a 10% drop, and keep 20% to guard against extremes.
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​3. Psychological Warfare
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​Emotional Indicators: A USDT lending rate above 30% is a bottom signal, and when retail investors push coins, it signals a top; establish emotional indicators.
​Stop-Loss Setting: Entry price - (ATR × 2) for stop-loss; if ATR is 5%, set stop-loss at -10%.
​Patience in Waiting: In a bear market, hold both long and short positions, and capture upward waves; not trading is the hardest trading.
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​4. Cognitive Upgrade
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​Cycle Patterns: Bitcoin tends to peak 12-18 months after halving; each bull market has a new narrative but the essence remains unchanged.
​Research Focus: Pay attention to the project wallet, net inflow of exchanges, large on-chain transfers, and other real data.
​Information Filtering: Focus on genuine big players, block false news, and observe the fear and greed index.
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​5. Survival Evolution
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​Safety Assurance: Do not keep more than 10% in exchanges and diversify; keep 80% in hardware wallets, and choose audited protocols for 10% DeFi yield.
​Bear Market Strategy: Dollar-cost average from the 7th to the 12th of each month, use the 200-week moving average + Puell Multiple to resonate and buy the dip, and hedge with options.
​Ultimate Mindset: Don't go all in, keep cash, understand when to exit, and you can survive in the cryptocurrency world.

After Bitcoin rose, the upward momentum has clearly slowed down. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is in a correction phase, and in the short term, there is a trend of downward adjustment in price.

In the afternoon, pay close attention to the support situation in the price range of 104500 to 104000. If this support level cannot hold, the price of Bitcoin will continue to drop; if it can hold the support level, the price will fluctuate within a certain range. In this case, when trading, sell when it's high and buy when it's low. For now, continue to expect a price decline.