PIV Fund
Only human in PIV Fund in #Energy #Bitcoin #USD Posting my own hedge/invest memo for introspect. go for coding, joking and diverting community notes.
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**BESSENT: NO UNILATERAL OFFER FROM TRUMP TO CUT CHINA TARIFFS
**BESSENT: DECLINES TO COMMENT ON WSJ STORY ON LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINA, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WENT DOWN IN A MUTUAL WAY
**BESSENT: FULL CHINA TRADE DEAL MAY TAKE 2-TO-3 YEARS
**BESSENT: DECLINES TO COMMENT ON WSJ STORY ON LOWERING TARIFFS ON CHINA, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WENT DOWN IN A MUTUAL WAY
**BESSENT: FULL CHINA TRADE DEAL MAY TAKE 2-TO-3 YEARS
SPX +2.5%
DXY +1.3%
BTC +6.8%
Gold -1.3%
IMO only thing has changed today in market is the tone of Trump.
DXY +1.3%
BTC +6.8%
Gold -1.3%
IMO only thing has changed today in market is the tone of Trump.
The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen below 99, currently sitting at 98.6 — its lowest level since March 2022, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate hike since 2018.
A 9% drop year-to-date, meaning, any asset with less than a 10% gain is actually losing value in terms of U.S. dollar purchasing power.
But we can zoom out.
A 9% drop year-to-date, meaning, any asset with less than a 10% gain is actually losing value in terms of U.S. dollar purchasing power.
But we can zoom out.
CHINA FINANCE MINISTRY: TO IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS, TO 84% ON U.S. GOODS, CCTV
1-YEAR RETURN AFTER 4 MAJOR NASDAQ DIPS
2009/3 - 2010/3
Nasdaq +85%
Gold +21%
2018/12 - 2019/12
Nasdaq +47%
Gold +21%
Bitcoin +92%
2020/03 - 2021/03
Nasdaq +85%
Gold +6%
Bitcoin +849%
2022/10 - 2023/10
Nasdaq +32%
Gold +21%
Bitcoin +56%
2009/3 - 2010/3
Nasdaq +85%
Gold +21%
2018/12 - 2019/12
Nasdaq +47%
Gold +21%
Bitcoin +92%
2020/03 - 2021/03
Nasdaq +85%
Gold +6%
Bitcoin +849%
2022/10 - 2023/10
Nasdaq +32%
Gold +21%
Bitcoin +56%
Despite the plunge, the Nasdaq now has a much higher chance of gaining 20% this year with a moderate EPS.
This comes as it has only recovered 80% of its year-to-date drop.
This comes as it has only recovered 80% of its year-to-date drop.
Daily routine of this week
Do you believe the trade world has changed starting today?
CHINA RE-RECIPROCAL TARIFFS TO IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 34% TARIFFS ON ALL IMPORTED U.S. PRODUCTS STARTING APRIL 10, XINHUA NEWS
$Nasdaq -3.3%
$BTC -1.4%
$Gold +0.6%
US2Y -5%
US10Y -3.7%
$Nasdaq -3.3%
$BTC -1.4%
$Gold +0.6%
US2Y -5%
US10Y -3.7%
Markets are bracing for a U.S. recession (50% chance happening)
The bond market is pricing in 4 cuts this year to rescue the economy.
Pressure on Fed
The bond market is pricing in 4 cuts this year to rescue the economy.
Pressure on Fed
Stocks, bonds, and gold all decline—there’s likely only one reason for this, liquidity squeeze
People from Wisconsin are quite into decentralized technology.
Strategy (MicroStrategy) Bought 6,911 BTC, Holds Over 500K BTC now (506,137 BTC), Second Only to BlackRock
Elon is in the smallest office in the White House to deal with the largest waste and fraud cases, and space matters is like me playing Zelda with a controller.
The Fed is currently in “wait and see” mode. Essentially, all the weighted data on their dashboard is significantly lagging behind the real situation—and that’s the situation.
They’ve drifted away from the idea of “preemptive monetary policy,” which they emphasized during the first rate cut last year, right before the election. Now, they’re unable to address problems before—or even as—they arise.
So back to the first principle of the topic, is US economy fine?
They’ve drifted away from the idea of “preemptive monetary policy,” which they emphasized during the first rate cut last year, right before the election. Now, they’re unable to address problems before—or even as—they arise.
So back to the first principle of the topic, is US economy fine?
LONG CRYPTO is still the 3rd crowded trades, but cooling a bit - BoA monthly fund manager survey
President Trump's address in Digital Asset Summit (DAS) in New York City will be delivered via a pre-recorded video at 10:40 AM EDT #Bitcoin
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