nic__carter
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in singapore last year i gave a talk called "cryptodollarization". the idea is dollarization via stablecoins. now with the GENIUS act about to pass and bessent's comments about stables reaching $3.7T (!!) (13% of M3), i believe stablecoins are being unleashed as an economic weapon to dollarize the rest of the world and help reset the US fiscal position.
cryptodollarization has happened already, arguably in venezuela, argentina (partial), and nigeria (partial). i believe it's much more aggressive than conventional dollarization, which is often limited by availability of physical banknotes.
I believe that in a decade there will be many fewer sovereign currencies and most weak nations will be dollarized – not through USG intervention but by a spontaneous "bottom up" process (this happened in Ecuador in 99/20 as described by larry white). in effect consumers engage in currency substitution and force the government's hand.
stablecoins eliminate the power of borders in currency choice and allow network effects to actually take hold. this is why we see the dollar representing >99% of stablecoins but only 40-60% of international reserves and financial flows. stablecoins make currency substitution must faster and more aggressive, and they are also ~impossible to stop. in almost all cases where nation states have attempted to prohibit flows out of local FX into USD stablecoins, they have eventually relented.
in my talk I built a simple model to try and guess where these spontaneous crypto-dollarizations might occur (see the last couple slides).
i wanted to revisit this talk because these predictions have become much closer to reality in the last 12 months. the government is saying the quiet part out loud: stablecoins are an economic weapon to passively dollarize the entire planet.
slides: https://t.co/SOwQ8YfqM0
video:
cryptodollarization has happened already, arguably in venezuela, argentina (partial), and nigeria (partial). i believe it's much more aggressive than conventional dollarization, which is often limited by availability of physical banknotes.
I believe that in a decade there will be many fewer sovereign currencies and most weak nations will be dollarized – not through USG intervention but by a spontaneous "bottom up" process (this happened in Ecuador in 99/20 as described by larry white). in effect consumers engage in currency substitution and force the government's hand.
stablecoins eliminate the power of borders in currency choice and allow network effects to actually take hold. this is why we see the dollar representing >99% of stablecoins but only 40-60% of international reserves and financial flows. stablecoins make currency substitution must faster and more aggressive, and they are also ~impossible to stop. in almost all cases where nation states have attempted to prohibit flows out of local FX into USD stablecoins, they have eventually relented.
in my talk I built a simple model to try and guess where these spontaneous crypto-dollarizations might occur (see the last couple slides).
i wanted to revisit this talk because these predictions have become much closer to reality in the last 12 months. the government is saying the quiet part out loud: stablecoins are an economic weapon to passively dollarize the entire planet.
slides: https://t.co/SOwQ8YfqM0
video:
most of my crypto trading GCs just talk about stocks now. the new meta is literally just stocks
One of the best coreweave $CRWV analyses to date, courtesy of @artemis
https://research.artemis.xyz/p/coreweave-fundamental-deep-dive
https://research.artemis.xyz/p/coreweave-fundamental-deep-dive
the right analogy for stablecoins is starlink for money
starlink brings billions online for the first time // stablecoins bring billions into a flat, egalitarian financial system + give billions first time access to USD
the utility of both is not that apparent if you have great infrastructure already, but it's still pretty handy for redundancy in developed world + essential in markets where infra is lacking
both are totally independent parallel infrastructure that reimagine how things could be done. no reliance on old infra
starlink for money
starlink brings billions online for the first time // stablecoins bring billions into a flat, egalitarian financial system + give billions first time access to USD
the utility of both is not that apparent if you have great infrastructure already, but it's still pretty handy for redundancy in developed world + essential in markets where infra is lacking
both are totally independent parallel infrastructure that reimagine how things could be done. no reliance on old infra
starlink for money
never seen anything like this in my damn life and i'm in crypto
really cool Tether dashboard just dropped. they are estimating 434m global USDT users (!!)
https://usdt.network/
https://usdt.network/
the world people in the world – in this case paul krugman – are melting down about the stablecoin bill
excited to share our third major stablecoin research report, in collaboration with @artemis and @dragonfly_xyz
are they having some kind of competition for who can write the dumbest anti-crypto/stablecoins article?
read this article if you want to incur actual brain damage
https://econjared.substack.com/p/crytpo-theres-just-no-legit-use-case
https://econjared.substack.com/p/crytpo-theres-just-no-legit-use-case
FT today: stablecoins are bad because tokenized bank deposits (which no one has been able to pull off, ever) are better. screw the current tech that works, let's invest in theoretical future tech
Stablecoins aren’t a thing per se. They are a way of doing things
That washed up actor guy @ben_mckenzie is back with his nonsense
https://slate.com/technology/2025/05/cryptocurrency-financial-crisis-silicon-valley-bank-collapse.html
https://slate.com/technology/2025/05/cryptocurrency-financial-crisis-silicon-valley-bank-collapse.html
Hundred dollar Weave
$CRWV
$CRWV
lots of sophisticated phishing attacks going around lately. all of these have been attempted on me. sadly seen a lot of cases where people did lose funds in these ways:
- real person (hacked) you've interacted before DMs you on TG and asks to catch up, send a zoom, looks like a real-ish zoom URL, asks you to download a client to "fix" audio, everything drained
- credible/real news org DMs you out of the blue on their official X account, asks for an interview, send you to a (fake) TG account, sends the (fake but real-looking) zoom link. this has happened to me with (major) news orgs that didn't even know they were hacked
- one of your "colleagues" asks for funds via email, email looks real, but headers are faked
- blitz of messages saying your coinbase has been hacked, yadda yadda, "support" calls and asks you to move your assets to a temporary address with some time pressure ("the "hackers" submitted the transaction but you still have time!")
general rules of thumb (not exhaustive)
- use @CasaHODL
- use @River for a custodial option
- don't keep a ton of funds on browser wallets like m*tamask or ph*ntom
- don't google crypto platforms and click the first link (hackers buy ads to put fake links in there)
- secure everything, not just wallets. this includes google, telegram, icloud, etc.
- don't answer phone calls from "support". hang up and call back on the official support line if you have to
- don't trust anything you hear on the phone especially if you're being pressured to do something
- don't answer calls from unknown numbers even if they seem like they're from "Google" or "Coinbase"
- be suspicious of emails or DMs from your "colleagues". know that email headers can be faked (ask AI for help analyzing headers if youre suspicious)
- double check that DMs from "friends" are real and they haven't been hacked
- make sure you have physical 2fa + authy/google authenticator on everything
- avoid SMS based 2fa wherever possible
- real person (hacked) you've interacted before DMs you on TG and asks to catch up, send a zoom, looks like a real-ish zoom URL, asks you to download a client to "fix" audio, everything drained
- credible/real news org DMs you out of the blue on their official X account, asks for an interview, send you to a (fake) TG account, sends the (fake but real-looking) zoom link. this has happened to me with (major) news orgs that didn't even know they were hacked
- one of your "colleagues" asks for funds via email, email looks real, but headers are faked
- blitz of messages saying your coinbase has been hacked, yadda yadda, "support" calls and asks you to move your assets to a temporary address with some time pressure ("the "hackers" submitted the transaction but you still have time!")
general rules of thumb (not exhaustive)
- use @CasaHODL
- use @River for a custodial option
- don't keep a ton of funds on browser wallets like m*tamask or ph*ntom
- don't google crypto platforms and click the first link (hackers buy ads to put fake links in there)
- secure everything, not just wallets. this includes google, telegram, icloud, etc.
- don't answer phone calls from "support". hang up and call back on the official support line if you have to
- don't trust anything you hear on the phone especially if you're being pressured to do something
- don't answer calls from unknown numbers even if they seem like they're from "Google" or "Coinbase"
- be suspicious of emails or DMs from your "colleagues". know that email headers can be faked (ask AI for help analyzing headers if youre suspicious)
- double check that DMs from "friends" are real and they haven't been hacked
- make sure you have physical 2fa + authy/google authenticator on everything
- avoid SMS based 2fa wherever possible
Will never not be funny to me that Dems are somehow default against stablecoin leg
Guys, stablecoins exist and work now but are basically unregulated and regulated bbt states or totally offshore. Big tech can launch stablecoins TODAY if they want. Thats the status quo
The bill is effectively neutral for the sector but very good for anyone interested in federalizing oversight and control (normally the Dem position)
Being against the bill is the small government / laissez faire position.
Guys, stablecoins exist and work now but are basically unregulated and regulated bbt states or totally offshore. Big tech can launch stablecoins TODAY if they want. Thats the status quo
The bill is effectively neutral for the sector but very good for anyone interested in federalizing oversight and control (normally the Dem position)
Being against the bill is the small government / laissez faire position.
$CRWV is relentless
so we were, uh, right.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/15/business/trump-debanking-crypto.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/15/business/trump-debanking-crypto.html
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