The only suitable application of blockchain is managing money. But this one application is enough to place it alongside AI as the most important technological innovation of this era. Why do most people fail to understand its significance? It's actually because most people are influenced by classical economics, especially Marx, and cannot fully appreciate the importance of money, believing that the value of money comes from the physical goods it can be exchanged for, failing to see that money is order, and money is social relationships.
After learning about the content of yesterday's Google I/O, I can't help but sigh that the entire AI field is under the periodic sweeping of big companies. If AI entrepreneurs cannot see this clearly, they will experience deep depression every now and then. In contrast, crypto, stablecoins, and RWA have become one of the few entrepreneurial oases now.
Chai Jing's program this time maintains the consistently high standard, but I must cold-heartedly say that currently, populism in China is raging, and this cannot be stopped by reflecting on history. The fundamental issue is structural; young people educated in China have lost upward mobility, while the authorities refuse to establish an inclusive welfare system, leading to a widening rather than narrowing wealth gap. A generation that grew up during the golden age and originally had high expectations of themselves is falling into anxiety and anger in disillusionment, which is the core issue. In this context, the trade war provides sufficient reasons for external hatred, and the continuously promoted military and technological advancements give enough confidence and impulse for opportunistic military adventures. Coupled with the unprecedented penetration and incitement of short video social media, the raging flames of populism are spreading at an exponential rate. A few well-produced tear-jerking historical stories, in the face of such a historical torrent, are no different from a mantis trying to stop a car.
You can observe for yourselves whether this is the case: scholars or opinion leaders who were seen as leftists a few years ago, such as Yan Xuetong, Zhai Dongsheng, Hu Xijin, and Ma Dugong, have now moved to the right side of the spectrum; former classmates and friends who could rationally view China and the world a few years ago have now sharply decreased in intelligence, their minds filled with fake news, false narratives, and fake history, and they have consciously adopted a populist discourse and mindset, starting to view everything related to the West with suspicion; on social media, a contest has begun to see who is more patriotic, who is more confident, who despises foreign countries more, and who can organize language in a way that excites collective euphoria; the higher the pitch, the more attention, applause, and economic benefits one receives; in terms of age, a basic pattern has formed where the younger one is, the more populist they tend to be.
My judgment is that the entire situation has now completed a cold start, crossed the tipping point, and entered into a self-reinforcing network effect. Internet and crypto practitioners are very familiar with this process; once the so-called 'tipping point' is reached, special arrangements for human promotion and resource support are no longer needed. The output of the network system will, in turn, stimulate and amplify the input, and the entire system can continuously accelerate its development. Currently, unless the authorities take strong measures to curb it, the trend is difficult to reverse. If it continues to develop, even the authorities will be forcefully swept along. There is no need to harbor any illusions; this trend is definitely pointing towards war, and there will absolutely be no second outcome.
What I am saying pertains to China, but in fact, similar trends also exist in the United States, the West, and other countries. As the new Canadian Prime Minister stated in his inaugural speech, the system in which countries are interdependent and the entire world moves towards prosperity has come to an end.
In light of the great trends of the world, we individuals are so small that it is difficult to shake the overall situation. I once anonymously criticized populist rhetoric that spreads fake news, false history, and creates xenophobic sentiments on domestic social media networks, but now I have seen the situation clearly, and it has exceeded the extent that any individual effort can influence. Now, for individuals, we can only adapt to the situation and do work at the observational level for self-preservation as the bottom line; if we can also make some efforts to reduce the risk of war, that would be a great kindness. Within this historical framework, I believe that crypto, especially the development of dollar stablecoin economies and RWA, now holds special economic and historical significance beyond mere freedom. As long as people can still do business with each other, invest in each other, and make money together, there will always be a bit more rationality and a commitment to peace and friendship.
Chai Jing's program maintains its consistently high standard, but I have to coldly say that populism in China is currently raging, and this cannot be stopped by reflecting on history. The fundamental problem is structural; educated young people in China have lost their upward mobility, while the authorities refuse to establish an inclusive welfare system, leading to a widening wealth gap rather than a narrowing one. The generation that grew up in a golden era, initially having high expectations for themselves, is now mired in anxiety and anger due to disillusionment. This is the fundamental issue. In this context, the trade war provides sufficient reasons for outward hatred, and the high-profile promotion of military and technological advancements gives enough confidence and impulse for opportunistic military adventures. Coupled with the unprecedented penetration and incitement of short video self-media, the raging fire of populism is spreading at an exponential rate. A few well-produced, tear-jerking historical stories are, in the face of this level of historical torrent, no different from a mantis trying to stop a cart.
You can observe for yourselves whether this is the case: scholars or opinion leaders who were considered leftist a few years ago, like Yan Xuetong, Zhai Dongsheng, Hu Xijin, and Ma Dugong, are now on the right side of the spectrum; former classmates and friends who could rationally view China and the world have now seen a sharp drop in their intelligence, their minds filled with fake news, fake narratives, and fake history. They have consciously adopted a populist discourse system and way of thinking, beginning to view everything related to the West with a wary eye. In self-media, a competition has begun to see who can be more patriotic, more confident, more contemptuous of foreigners, and who can organize language in a way that incites collective excitement. The higher the tone, the more attention, applause, and economic benefits one receives; from an age perspective, a basic pattern is forming where the younger you are, the more populist you become.
My judgment is that the entire situation has completed a cold start, crossed the critical point, and entered an automatic positive feedback loop within network effects. Internet and crypto practitioners are very familiar with this process; once the so-called 'critical point' is reached, there is no need for special human push and resource support. The output of the network system will, in turn, stimulate and amplify the input, and the entire system can develop at an accelerating pace. Currently, unless the authorities take strong action to curb it, the trend is difficult to reverse. If this continues, even the authorities will be swept along by the momentum. We should not harbor any illusions; this trend is certainly pointing towards war, and there will never be a second outcome.
I am talking about China, but this trend also exists in the United States, the West, and other countries. As the new Prime Minister of Canada said in his inaugural speech, the system in which countries depend on each other and the world moves towards prosperity has come to an end.
In the face of global trends, we individuals are incredibly small and have a hard time shaking the overall situation. I once anonymously criticized on domestic self-media networks for spreading fake news, fake history, and creating xenophobic sentiments through populist rhetoric, but I now see the situation clearly; it has surpassed the extent that any individual effort can influence. For individuals now, we can only adapt to the situation and work on the level of spectatorship for self-preservation as a baseline. If we can also make some efforts to reduce the risk of war, that would be the greatest good. Within this overarching historical framework, I believe that crypto, especially the development of dollar stablecoin economies and RWA, now holds special economic and freedom-related significance. As long as people can still do business with each other, invest in each other, and make money together, there will always be a bit of rationality and a commitment to peace and friendship.
In the past few days, I've been thinking that in this era of information overload and rampant fake news, as long as one makes determinate judgments based on real information, it already surpasses the vast majority of people; there's no need to gamble on uncertainty.
For example, in the recent conflict between India and Pakistan, it's unclear how many planes were involved and who was responsible; this is uncertain. However, based on the reactions on the internet, it is a basic fact that Chinese nationalist sentiment is running high, and this sentiment will inevitably lead people to be more bellicose and more willing to consider using force to resolve issues. This is a determinate judgment. Then, based on this determinate judgment, many certain opportunities in the stablecoin economy and the RWA field can be identified.
1. The dollar stablecoin economy is the central focus for the next 3 years. 2. The dollar stablecoin economy is the primary stage of RWA. 3. Ethereum remains the largest platform for the dollar stablecoin economy. 4. The three fundamental application demands of payment, collateral lending, and RWA exchanges will continue to expand.
All current difficulties are temporary; for those already in these tracks, hold on tight and do not get off the bus.
Can't wait any longer, going to sleep first. Don't know what important news Chuan University is going to release, is it related to crypto? Everyone, please send me good news in my dreams.
The characteristics of a capitalist market economy are that the winner takes all. In such a market, the assets most suitable for ordinary people to turn their fortunes around are those that have symmetrical information and high volatility. Bitcoin and a few meme assets fit this characteristic. However, the problem with these types of assets is that they are too difficult to create. Whoever can think of a way to mass-produce these types of assets will be the king of the RWA era.
Regarding the stablecoin bill in the United States, there is a strange phenomenon: people within our circle feel that its significance is enormous. Once the bill is enacted, the underlying logic of the current economy will begin to unravel, and many individuals and companies will be disrupted. Then, looking up, we see that these people are not only unfazed but also completely disregard the issue of stablecoins, not taking it seriously at all.
Where is the problem? Are we overthinking it, or are they being careless and not paying attention?
Why did the Houthis stop fighting? Why did India and Pakistan start fighting again? What impact does this have on crypto? Friends who are aware, please advise.
In the long term, the stablecoin bill brings expectations for the long-term prosperity of RWA, but at this moment, the liquidity shortage continues to worsen. So while everyone is full of hope in their minds, the reality is still torturous.
Some people sort assets based on entropy values. Native assets like BTC and ETH belong to zero-entropy assets, stablecoins belong to low-entropy assets, while physical assets like real estate and infrastructure are high-entropy. If this statement can be widely understood and accepted, then my view on the trend of RWA development can be easily summarized: low-entropy RWA comes first, high-entropy RWA comes later.
The relationship between RWA and Web3 payments is as follows: Before RWA truly takes off, it is necessary to create a situation where tens of millions of people use stable dollars for their daily income and expenses. But how can we accelerate the transition of these tens of millions of users to stable dollars? This again requires relying on the story and imaginative space of RWA to provide motivation.
RWA is very hot right now, but please stay calm. Before you can get rich selling RWA, first try selling your RWGS (Real-World Goods & Services). Don't think you can make a fortune overnight; nobody will buy your bad assets turned into RWA.
Fifty years ago, in a Harvard dormitory, Bill Gates saw this magazine and excitedly shouted to Paul Allen: "The revolution has begun, and we are not part of it!" But in fact, both of them had been prepared, just waiting for such a triggering opportunity, and thus Microsoft was born.
Today, stablecoins are about to unleash a new storm, yet most people remain indifferent to it. Let everyone continue to be numb; opportunities are reserved for those who are prepared.