Ice_Frog666666

I mentioned a long time ago that Alpha's blood draw mechanism would inevitably lower the project's selection threshold.

However, when I saw the President of Serbia becoming a community administrator for the AB public chain, I couldn't hold back anymore 😂

The thing that Alpha grinders are most worried about has happened, I hope no one has passed away...

In addition, if you are an Alpha grinder and can't help but buy the dip in this situation, I think you should just quit your job and trade cryptocurrency, as this isn't suitable for you.

Make a bold inference:

If Aster does not have a TGE within a month, regardless of how good the current data looks, it is highly likely to end up in a mess.

Recently, the Aster team may be immersed in the joy of soaring trading volumes, even getting excited about "soon catching up with Hyperliquid."

On the surface, the data indeed looks impressive, but it is worth noting that: these trading volumes are likely not driven by a surge in real user demand, but rather built on unregulated airdrop expectations.

To put it bluntly: this is not data growth, but debt growth.

Up to now, Aster has not done any management of airdrop expectations, nor has it released a clear TGE schedule. Market enthusiasm continues to rise, and sentiment is approaching an overdrawn critical point; if the duration continues to be drawn out, the sense of disparity can easily transform into collective FUD.

I am not pessimistic about Aster, but past industry patterns have long proven: any short-term prosperity supported by airdrop expectations, without accompanying guidance in rhythm, sentiment management, and expectation anchoring, will ultimately backfire on the project itself, without exception.

We have seen too many projects take off due to "airdrop expectations" and then fall due to "fulfillment"; the root cause of all this has never been insufficient enthusiasm, but rather the project side's blindness to that enthusiasm, failing to realize the increasingly high user expectations behind it.

Without airdrop expectation management, it is highly likely to backfire, allowing the bubble to expand, which is almost equivalent to a chronic collapse.

《Popular Interpretation of Resolv: The On-Chain Version of ENA? Why It’s Worth Attention》

Resolv has unexpectedly appeared on OKX and Binance Alpha as well as Binance Futures. As the stablecoin sector heats up, especially with the rise of 'yield-bearing stablecoins', what exactly is Resolv doing? Let’s break it down.

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I. Basic Overview: Backed by Top VCs + ETH Collateralized Stablecoin

Resolv was established in 2023, aiming to create a 100% ETH over-collateralized stablecoin USR, pegged to the US dollar, and to achieve a delta-neutral strategy through perpetual positions. In April 2024, it secured $10 million in funding led by Maven11, marking its first public project this year.

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II. Mechanism Highlights: Stable Pegging, Risk Isolation, Self-Driven Returns

The structure of Resolv can be summarized as “three layers of assets + three mechanisms”:

1. USR: Core Stablecoin
- Over-collateralized by ETH, pegged to the US dollar
- Can be staked as stUSR to earn protocol returns
- The liquidity anchoring mechanism is supported by lower layers

2. RLP: Risk-Bearing LP
- Provides ETH minting, earning perp positive funding fees + staking rewards
- System losses are initially borne by RLP

3. Collateral Pool: Constructing Delta Neutrality
- ETH spot + perpetual contracts create a hedging structure
- Combining on-chain and custodial assets ensures transparency and safety

Furthermore, in terms of returns, daily distributions allow USR users to earn steadily, RLP users to earn risk premiums, and a portion of the protocol treasury is allocated for the ecosystem.

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III. Comparison with ENA: Three Major Upgrade Highlights

Although the core idea comes from ENA, Resolv is clearly more “on-chain native” and has progressed further in the following three aspects:

1. More Genuine Sources of Returns
- Primarily relies on on-chain perp markets and ETH staking, providing more stable and transparent sources of returns.

2. Clearer Risk Layering
- All losses are absorbed by RLP, ensuring that USR users' principal is always safe, with stable pegging and clear risk isolation.

3. Richer Token Mechanism
- USR (stablecoin) + RLP (risk LP) + RESOLV (governance), clearly distinguished structurally, providing clearer participation paths.

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IV. Conclusion: It’s More Radical and Pure Than You Imagine

Resolv and Ethena started almost simultaneously, yet it still lags behind the latter. However, Resolv has chosen a more on-chain, structured, and censorship-resistant path. Although it starts slowly and has higher barriers to entry, it represents a purer DeFi spirit.

In today’s evolving yield stablecoin model, Resolv may not be the first project to break out, but it is more on-chain, purer, and more surprising; once it takes off, it may have a higher ceiling.

The Cryptocurrency Version of "College Entrance Exam Essay":

Read the materials below and write an article according to the requirements (60 points)

1. He wanted to explain something to Linea, but tears were welling up, unable to flow down.

——Community Member Er Gou "Rights Protection Notes"

2. If I were a bird, I should also step on Xterio with my lame claws.

——KOL Little Frog "I Love This Fur Rubbing"

3. I want to embrace the project party one by one with my withered wallet because a fur rub person has already gone bankrupt.

——Fur Rub Person Please Call Me to Fur Rub "Counter Fur Rub"

What rights protection associations and thoughts have the above materials inspired in you? Please write an article.

Requirements: Choose the right project, determine the intention, clarify the writing style, come up with your own title; no profanity, no personal attacks, no real-name disputes, not less than 20,000 words.

《Easy Interpretation of Mezo: A New Solution to Break the BtcFi Dilemma》

BtcFi is one of the most controversial tracks in this crypto cycle. After various anti-rug incidents, BtcFi has been criticized as a pseudo-proposition, but capital dares to continue investing.

Why? Because it is worth betting on as long as there is a possibility of leveraging BTC's trillion-dollar stock pool.

The high valuation brought about by capital's bet is very subtle in the current market. If it is not controlled well, it will be an anti-rug. This may also be inevitable due to the industry cycle transition. Below is an easy interpretation of Mezo, focusing on answering three questions:

1) What is Mezo?

2) What are the highlights of the project?

3) Can it reverse the decline of BTCfi?

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I. What is Mezo?

In a simple sentence: Mezo is a financial infrastructure platform built around Bitcoin, compatible with EVM, and can use BTC as Gas. Its core assets are BTC and MUSD (Bitcoin-backed stablecoin), and it deploys a full set of BTCFi financial tools such as lending, payment, stablecoins, and staking.

In layman's terms: It allows you to complete lending, wealth management, and consumption through BTC without selling BTC, creating a financial system with BTC as the sovereign asset.

The founder is the former founder of Thesis. The project has raised over $28 million in total, and investors include the founder of Curve, the founder of Taproot, and other industry leaders.

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II. What are the highlights of the project?

1. Mainnet two-layer architecture: Cathedra + Bazaar

1) The cathedral is the core of the underlying project, mainly including:

MUSD stablecoin (BTC over-collateralization)

Fixed-rate lending system with BTC as the core

tBTC cross-chain bridge (avoiding centralized custody)

The entire design seamlessly integrates swap, lending, bridging, and staking functions designed specifically for Bitcoin. By integrating core functions into a Bitcoin-centric architecture, friction is eliminated.

2) Bazaar is the innovation layer, encouraging developers to freely build Bitcoin native applications, such as SocialFi, GameFi, and experimental dApps. All functions are hosted on Mezo and supported by Bitcoin, and can directly call Cathedral capabilities.

Underlying security and innovation decoupling is the biggest feature of the entire architecture. The mainnet has already been launched.

2. MUSD stablecoin mechanism

This is a core feature of the project. The MUSD bottom layer is 100% collateralized by BTC. In order to ensure the failure of anchoring caused by market fluctuations, the project sets a minimum collateralization rate of 110%, a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 90%, an annualized interest rate of 1%-5%, and no fixed repayment period. All BTC reserves are visible on the chain and are completely transparent.

The highlight is that it has achieved extreme optimization on key parameters: on the one hand, borrowers can obtain up to 90% of the value of their Bitcoin holdings, greatly releasing the liquidity of BTC; on the other hand, the lending rate is maintained in a fixed range of 1%-5%, which is far lower than most Bitcoin lending protocols on the market, and the project currently does not set a fixed repayment plan.

3. Incentive points Mats

Main source: Locking up BTC/stablecoin, inviting, participating in the community

Main functions: Lottery, governance, airdrop reference, etc.

All points systems are actually linked to behavior. In other words, this may be an important reference for future incentives, airdrops, and governance.

Note that the official website has different point coefficients for locking up Bitcoin and stablecoins. For details, please refer to the official website: https://t.co/hdtvZeTUJy

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III. Can Mezo's solution reverse the decline of BTCFi?

Mezo's strategy is based on BTC, with MUSD stablecoin as the main medium, to open up BTC's lending, trading, payment, and other financial functions.

This design logic is more friendly to institutions and conservative users, and lays the foundation for building BTC-based credit cards, payment networks, RWA asset transactions, etc. in the future.

However, it must be admitted that the BTCFi track where the project is located does not have high community trust, and coupled with the high financing behind it, it also faces extremely high expectations. Whether it can effectively balance community expectations and capital demands and user experience is uncertain.

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IV. Summary

BTCFi projects are almost universally caught in the awkward situation of "good reputation but not popular." Whether Mezo can break through and open up incremental space remains to be tested by time.

But one thing is certain: the project is one of the most systematically integrated Btcfi architectures that integrates multiple core modules such as stablecoins, lending, Gas, bridging, and points.

This model is more likely to attract institutional funds, miner groups, etc., especially its low-volatility, high-certainty financing costs, which are extremely attractive to large funds, and the interest rate spread can naturally provide a stable source of funds for arbitrage and leveraged traders.

Of course, whether Mezo can survive and run out in such a market can only be said to be a very promising candidate project. The rest still needs time to test and the industry narrative to recover.

Statement: Based on publicly available project information, does not constitute investment advice, DYOR!

The Binance alpha threshold has officially entered above 200, and it seems that it will only get higher in the future.

Whether to take action or not will come at a cost; to grind is to be dominated by anxiety over scores, while not grinding is the panic of missed opportunities.

The pain of the present and the regret of the future, most people will definitely choose the former. In this sense, people are not driven by greed, but by panic.

Done, is the era of building Web3 with our mouths finally here? The frog can only croak~ What should we do?

Binance Alpha seems to have caught the attention of the Pangu ground promotion forces, are the elderly ready to enter the market?

Wow, soon going to Upbit, the other day I said the alpha single number 50U is probably going to backfire. 😂

Before Marriage: The big one is coming
After Marriage: The big one is coming

It has been proven that getting married and having a family does not make people more honest.

In a few weeks, this should become Linea's catchphrase, but this time Fox mentioned that token economics is far from classic structures. Does that mean that most people are not qualified?
If that's the case, I can only curse as a sign of respect, CNM! Linea!

sui awesome, being stolen 200 million dollars is such a big deal, and the coin price can still be stable!

I call this set of strategies for Binance Alpha the "Cost Outsourcing Traffic Warfare!"

Platform zero-cost expansion!
Project high-cost monetization!
Users working intensively!

The ones forced into a desperate situation are the competitors, and the cycle of harvesting and internal competition:

Projects exploit users, platforms exploit projects, users compete against users.

In the end, all the squeezed surplus value will converge in one direction!

Binance, ascends to the throne!

《A Simple Interpretation of SXT: Can Smart Contracts Understand the World, Is This a Good Narrative?》

Recently, @SpaceandTimeDB made a strong entry into Binance's spot market, pushing many interpretations that still lean towards the 'engineer perspective', which is too complicated for ordinary users. Today, I will clarify three things with the simplest and least amount of text:

1) What problem does SXT actually solve?

2) How does it solve it?

3) Is it 'worth paying attention to' in the current Web3 ecosystem?

Let's break it down simply.

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1. Why do we say smart contracts are 'blind with eyes open'?

In the past few years, no matter how powerful smart contracts are, they have two fatal weaknesses:

1. They can only see their own data

For example, they can only see whether this address has money, whether this contract has interaction, but they cannot see your past behavior. Even if they could see, invoking it would be super complicated, not to mention off-chain assets and off-chain credit.

2. Off-chain data = Blindly trusting oracles

All data from the external world must be 'fed' in through oracles (like Chainlink). But is the data real? Has it been tampered with? The contract itself cannot verify, it all relies on trust.

The result is that: the execution of smart contracts is becoming more intelligent, but whether it is trustworthy has become a problem itself.

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2. What exactly does SXT do? What is the use of the token?

The ultimate mission of SXT is: to make smart contracts 'see, understand, and verify'. In one sentence, SXT's job is to allow contracts to read databases directly and verify that the data is not fabricated.

1. A simple interpretation of the technical logic

The core mechanism that achieves all this is called 'Proof of SQL'. You can think of it as installing a 'ZK-certified database' on on-chain contracts. The specific implementation:

1) Off-chain nodes run SQL queries

2) Generate ZK zero-knowledge proofs: proving that the results are correct and not fabricated.

3) Smart contracts verify this proof and directly use the results, without needing to run the data themselves.

In other words, it allows contracts to receive external data in a way that says 'I don't trust you, but I can verify that what you say is true'. Most importantly, this querying process, under the support of SXT's technology, is compressed to sub-second levels, making it not only fast but also secure.

In addition, the accompanying problem is, who will ensure that this SQL data is not randomly written? Thus, the project team established a validator network.

Like most validator networks, validators synchronize data from on-chain/off-chain (ETH, Polygon, BTC, CEX API, etc.) through Byzantine Fault Tolerance protocols to reach consensus and are required to stake SXT tokens. Random signing will be penalized. This ensures that the data is trustworthy and reusable.

2. Economic model interpretation

In the project token, the community allocated 51.7% of the share, which is quite substantial. It is evident that the project team is quite generous in token distribution towards the community. In short, the SXT token has two core values.

On one hand, it serves as a security guarantee for the validator network; as mentioned earlier, validators must stake SXT; otherwise, they cannot participate in signing verification; cheating will lead to punishment.

On the other hand, it acts as an ecosystem-driven token, where developers can earn SXT by releasing high-quality data, and query users must also use SXT along with network fees.

Through the economic model and technology, it successfully transformed Web3 data into a commodity with supply, demand, verification, and payment.

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3. What significance does this have at the current stage?

We are currently in a very awkward stage: on-chain is becoming increasingly complex, the wealth effect is getting better, but people are becoming more hesitant to trust.

In DeFi, you don't know if you are a real user or a bot; RWA wants to go on-chain, but who will verify the off-chain data is unclear;

AI agents have entered, but how do we know on-chain whether they are fabricating data?

Simply put, contracts are essentially 'invisible', let alone 'trustworthy'.

SXT is addressing this core issue—allowing contracts not only to see data but also to verify its authenticity, truly establishing a new mechanism of 'on-chain trust'.

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4. Conclusion

Currently, it is evident that at least the AI and RWA trends are likely to be the next major hotspots; AI needs data for judgment but is untrustworthy and unverifiable; RWA is starting to gain traction, and how to prove that off-chain assets, compliance, and real-world entities are genuine when they go on-chain?

This is the greatest narrative value of SXT, turning this matter into a protocol layer, rather than just an application or plugin. It makes 'trustworthy data + automatic verification' possible, allowing DeFi, RWA, and AI to utilize credible data and make more complex and precise responses. You could even say that this is a complete on-chain 'audit system'.

Widespread demand and compelling narrative—this is the underlying reason for being able to go on Binance and continue to receive attention.

Special statement: The above analysis is based solely on fundamental research analysis of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR!

The greatest cruelty of Binance Alpha points is: everyone knows how it will end, but no one dares to leave before the final curtain.

SOON will be listed on Binance Alpha soon, and this time I estimate the order number to be around 50 USDT.

Here are my thoughts from an investment research perspective.

In summary, SOON: If we consider various public chains (Ethereum, Base, BNB, etc.) as the engines of the entire Web3 world, what SOON does is add a turbocharger to them—without changing the chassis, just increasing speed. It allows the SVM engine, which could only run on Solana, to be plugged in, making it accessible on any chain.

Not only that, it recently launched https://t.co/4xzcvzPOwe, which is straightforwardly a copy trading platform that brings the logic of exchange copy trading on-chain, making it clear who is profiting at whose expense.

Ultimately, the current blockchain ecosystem does not need more “Solanas,” nor does it need to constantly threaten Ethereum's existence; SOON's logic is: I won't engage in internal competition, you all just need to speed up.

There are challenges, of course; the technology is good, but it requires more users; there are also many competitors, such as OP, ZK, and various Stacks.

Can Solana's turbocharger help Web3 take off? It's hard to say, but regardless, should we seize a position first? What if this wind really picks up?

After all, what Solana excels at is perhaps surviving dire situations and becoming an instant hit.

The above is for reference only.

#soon #BinanceAlpha

I have decided that my TG investment research group, after upgrading to a rights protection group, will be upgraded again to — 'Binance Alpha Labor Alliance Gathering Group'.

Feeling that Prince Emm has personally come down to build a WeChat group to guide the brushing of Alpha, and even the imperial prince is so diligent, how can we common folks dare to be lazy?

If you have ever been subjected to point PUA, been harvested by anti-rolling, been toyed with by the rules, constantly caught in between, not knowing how to brush points at a low cost, or how to participate in the 15-day dynamic game.......

I will completely share the strategies, techniques, and methods of brushing Binance Alpha from my studio with everyone for free, so that information is no longer monopolized, and strategies are no longer hidden by a few people.

Here, you don't have to thank any platform or any project; we are not a 'thankful' community; we are just sober Alpha point workers.

We believe: it's reasonable to harvest, and involution is not a crime.

We don’t clock in; we only work; we don’t fight among ourselves; we only voice our opinions;

Under the premise of not breaking the law and not doing evil, fighting for every reasonable benefit for ourselves is inherently the right of Web3 workers.

Welcome to join: 'Alpha Labor Alliance Gathering Group', let’s earn money together while standing, and walk towards the next Alpha peak that belongs to the workers.

TG group link: https://t.co/hOnwqc0O4P

#BinanceAlpha

《Port3 Airdrop Fraud, Token Mystery, Binance Alpha Screening Mechanism is a Farce?》

Port3 - a project with fraudulent financing data, broken airdrop promises, and a murky token flow, can it really appear on Binance Alpha with such audacity?

Is this truly Binance's "strict selection of quality projects", or another stage of interest exchange where "whoever can pay the protection fee gets on the list"?

Let's first review what Port3 has done:

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1. Financing Amount Fraud: Is it tens of millions of dollars or just a few million?

Port3 claimed early on to have "completed financing of tens of millions of dollars", which was a key point in their external promotion. Strangely, recent third-party databases show their actual financing amount to be only a few million dollars (see the comparison in the image below).

Theoretically, the financing data from third-party platforms should also come from the project party. So the question arises:

Either they exaggerated from the beginning, or there were withdrawals during the financing process, and they never actively disclosed this change.

Whichever it is, it means the project party intentionally "packaged" or even "deceived" the market. More ironically, did Binance Alpha really have no awareness of this basic information issue?

__________________

2. Four Months of Airdrop "System Upgrade"? Or Token Substitution?

Port3's airdrop has almost no integrity, severely backstabbing the community. From the initial promise of "all airdrops released in the first quarter, users can claim immediately", to users later discovering they couldn't claim at all, to the "second quarter airdrop distribution in December" being postponed to January, and finally just throwing out a "system upgrade" to gloss over everything (see the timeline in the image below).

Image 1: Team members claimed it could be claimed by the end of 2024

Image 2: In January 2025, users discovered they couldn't claim

Image 3: In February 2025, announced system upgrade

Since January 15, 2025, the first-quarter airdrop claiming has completely stagnated, dragging on for over four months without announcements, explanations, compensations, or even the most basic respect.

Is it your system upgrade, or are you secretly transferring tokens? This is evidenced by the contract address from which the airdrop was to be claimed.

__________________

3. 70 Million Airdrop Promise Only Half Received? Where Did the Rest Go?

Port3 once promised a total airdrop amount of 3.5% of the total supply, which is 70 million tokens. However, to date, only half, 35 million tokens, have entered the airdrop contract address.

So, where did the other half go?

The contract address is as follows: https://t.co/bVMCoKzFhL

Is it reserved for the team and insiders’ hidden profits?

Or is it used for "settling relationships"?

If this is a genuine "community incentive airdrop", why does the amount in the airdrop contract not match?

__________________

4. You stare into the abyss, and the abyss stares back at you - what is the trust bottom line of Binance Alpha?

A series of actions by Port3 is not just a simple incident of backlash; it feels more like a naked probe:

How much wrongdoing can the community tolerate? In this context, there are only two possibilities:

1. The project and Binance wallet engage in interest exchange and collude to harvest?

2. The project acts maliciously while Binance does not investigate at all?

Whichever it is, it is chilling. More seriously: if even a project like Port3 can easily make the list, has Binance Alpha's screening mechanism completely devolved into a performance?

In today's rapid expansion of Alpha and intensifying competition within the points system, users are not just being guided to participate in distribution, but are also voting for the platform's "credibility".

We call for Binance to immediately review and explain the issues of Port3's fraudulent financing, airdrop fraud, and unclear token whereabouts.

No one will refuse Binance Alpha providing benefits to everyone, but that does not mean the community should be backstabbed, deceived, and have their trust trampled repeatedly.

Listing can have no threshold, but the platform cannot have no bottom line!

《Why Does Ice Frog Want to Advertise?》

Not everyone likes watching ads, but I quite enjoy them, especially large-scale advertisements.

I can often glean a lot from these ads, the most obvious being the project's operational rhythm, which KOLs they have chosen for promotion, what the budget looks like, and the content of the promotion can indicate recent activities or the importance and status of a certain product within the project. The most valuable insight might be the clues to infer or identify the TGE timing.

I believe that the TGE timing is the most important factor in all investment research elements. Why? I keep emphasizing the value of investment research. I was the first to mention calculating airdrop odds in the circle. All my yield farming investments are based on odds calculations; as long as the odds are high enough, I will invest. If the odds are low, even if it is hyped to the sky, I won't engage. I never rush in just because of a large funding round or a good fundamental situation, nor do I abandon research simply because the fundamentals are average.

So how do you calculate the odds? Cake size ÷ number of people sharing the cake ÷ cost incurred = odds. Project narrative, track, funding—these fundamentals only affect the market cap ceiling, which means they only influence the size of the cake. The number of people sharing the cake requires backtracking on-chain and off-chain data, and the odds calculated based on costs are just a volatile range value, which likely decreases over time. If the time span is too long, the odds may drop below 1, meaning one could face losses from reverse farming. Classic examples include Linea, ZKSync, and Staknet; all of them experienced this issue because the time dragged on without an increase in the total cake, while the number of people sharing it continued to rise.

So why do I like watching ads? Because ads are often one of the signals for TGE nodes. The TGE timing is the most important; once the time is determined, the odds can essentially be confirmed. That's why I really like the opportunities before the TGE; the odds can be well established, and I can estimate a rough snapshot time based on the activity cycle. With odds, you can dive right in and achieve real short and swift results.

Ads are also a part of my information model. My advertising fees are relatively high; there are really not many KOLs more expensive than me. However, I have never changed my price; the price for 40k followers is the same as for 130k followers now because I don’t focus on volume, only screening projects. I believe that only high thresholds can achieve the goal of filtering projects, so the ones I can negotiate with are typically those with solid fundamentals and ample budgets.

As for advertising, I explain narratives, technology, and industry tracks in a straightforward manner. This is part of the fundamentals, which affect the market cap ceiling, and this is one of the elements of investment research, which I believe is also very important, but it is definitely not yield farming investment advice! I also usually state at the end of my articles that real yield farming investment opportunities need to combine fundamental research with on-chain and off-chain data, TGE timing, and odds calculations for a comprehensive judgment.

I don’t like people engaged in pyramid schemes participating in yield farming investments; this is similar to my disinclination to tout a certain cryptocurrency. Such investment advice carries significant risks, and I am unwilling to partake in it. Even if some yield farming doesn’t require investment funds and is just zero-sum, it still requires time and effort. I believe that time and effort are scarce resources in this circle, so I am also reluctant to “sell risks” in this manner.

Lastly, I need to obtain the information I want from the project parties. I require some non-public information to enhance my judgment about the project. It’s like playing Texas Hold'em; I secretly get to see one or several more hole cards. This not only optimizes my judgment of opportunity odds but also gives me the confidence to take positions. I often embed the information I obtain in the advertising content I write. This kind of non-disclosable information can only be conveyed in this way, leaving it for those who are truly interested.

《Why Does Ice Frog Advertise?》

Nobody likes to see ads, but I quite enjoy watching them, especially large-scale ads. I can learn a lot from these advertisements, one obvious thing is to see the operational rhythm of the project team, which KOLs they have chosen for promotion, what the budget is, and the content of the promotion can also reveal recent activities or the importance and status of a certain product within the project. The most valuable aspect may be that it can provide clues to speculate or find out the TGE timing.

I believe that the TGE timing is the most important factor among all investment research elements. Why? I have been emphasizing the value of investment research continuously. I was the first to mention calculating airdrop odds in the circle. All my yield farming investments are based on odds calculations. As long as the odds are high enough, I will proceed; if the odds are low, even if they are hyped up, I won’t participate. I never rashly get involved just because the funding is large or the fundamentals are good, nor do I give up research because the fundamentals are average.

So how are the odds calculated? Cake size ÷ number of people sharing the cake ÷ costs incurred = odds. Project narrative, track, and financing will only affect the market value ceiling, meaning they will only affect the cake size. The number of people sharing the cake requires a retrospective analysis of on-chain and off-chain data, and the odds calculated based on costs are merely an unstable range value, which is likely to decrease over time. If the time period is too long, the odds may fall below the value of 1, meaning you risk being liquidated and losing money. Classic examples include Linea, ZkSync, and Staknet, all of which suffered from delays; under the condition that the total cake hasn’t increased, the number of people sharing the cake continues to rise.

So why do I like to watch ads? Because ads are often one of the signals for TGE nodes. The TGE timing is the most crucial; once the timing is determined, the odds can generally be established. Therefore, I really like the opportunities before TGE, where the odds can be clearly defined, and I can estimate the approximate snapshot timing based on the activity cycle. With odds available, I go for it directly, achieving real short and quick returns.

Ads are also part of my information model. My advertising costs are relatively high; there are really not many KOLs who charge more than I do, but I have never changed my price. The price for 40k followers is the same as the price for 130k followers now because I don’t pursue volume, only screening projects. I believe that only high thresholds can achieve the purpose of filtering projects, so in the end, the deals that can be made are essentially projects with relatively high-quality fundamentals and sufficient budgets.

Then for ads, I explain the narrative, technology, and industry track in a way that is easy to understand. This falls under the fundamentals, which influence the market value ceiling, and I consider this an important element of investment research, but it is definitely not a yield farming investment recommendation! I also usually state at the end that real yield farming investment opportunities, besides fundamental research, require a comprehensive judgment that combines on-chain and off-chain data, TGE timing, and odds calculations.

I don’t like pyramid schemes participating in yield farming investments. This is similar to my dislike for shouting out a certain cryptocurrency; such investment advice carries significant risks, and I am unwilling to do this. Even if some yield farming doesn’t require investment funds, only 0 investment, it still requires time and effort. I believe that time and energy are scarce resources in this circle, so I also do not wish to “sell risks” in this way.

Lastly, I need to get the information I want from the project team. I need some non-public information to enhance my judgment about the project, equivalent to me playing Texas Hold'em and secretly looking at one or two more hole cards. This not only optimizes my judgment on opportunity odds but also gives me the confidence to position myself. The information I obtain is often hidden within the content of the ads I write. Such non-disclosable information can only be conveyed this way, left for those who are truly interested.