#美国4月核心PCE指标显示通胀放缓
Important economic data, financial event forecasts and trading reminders for next week——
Economic data:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday 22:00)
Previous value: 49.2, predicted value: 49.7
ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 22:00)
Previous value: 49.4, predicted value: 51
The boom-bust line is 50. Above 50 means the manufacturing/service industry is expanding, and below 50 means it is contracting. Therefore, if the PMI value is significantly lower than 50 and trending downward, the market may believe that economic activity is slowing down and business confidence is declining. This will increase market expectations for interest rate cuts, as easier monetary policy is needed to stimulate the economy and avoid recession.
Since the service industry accounts for a larger proportion of U.S. GDP, the non-manufacturing PMI may reflect economic conditions more comprehensively than the manufacturing PMI. When formulating monetary policy, the Fed will consider manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data:
Double PMI above 50: indicates comprehensive economic expansion and is negative for interest rate cut expectations.
Double PMI below 50: indicates a comprehensive economic contraction, which is good for expectations of interest rate cuts.
One high and one low: more attention is paid to non-manufacturing PMI, which also requires more detailed analysis and may wait for other economic indicators to determine specific policy directions.