In my experience, luck accounts for 80%, and the remaining 20% is not just skill.
If the technology here refers to technical analysis, I personally think that excessive pursuit of technical analysis is counterproductive. The more people brag about technology, the more I have seen analysts who lead orders. In addition to creating a permanent profit image, I have basically never seen people who follow orders make money. If you have to choose between technology and faith, believers are more likely to make a lot of money. But the source of the believers' faith and the target they choose, if they believe in the wrong thing, they will basically lose everything. But it is not good to not understand technology at all. At least look at the daily and weekly levels in terms of cycles, and you will have a general sense. The big guys once said that technology is for people to use, not dead. Once you pay the tuition for rote memorization, it is the price of blood.
If you have some understanding of human nature, it will be more beneficial to trading in the cryptocurrency circle. After all, it is human nature to chase rising and selling falling. Generally, the peak will be accompanied by great fomo emotions. If you can collect enough emotion-related information and stay calm at the same time, the probability of escaping the peak is very high.
The development of the industry, apart from the two out-of-the-box targets of BTC and ETH, the cryptocurrency world is actually a place where new things appear very quickly. If you are too lazy, it is okay if you only do BTC and ETH. But most people, who don’t understand new things, will only focus on the coins that are already on the exchange. Especially some old garbage. Because new things appear very quickly, it is foreseeable that the old ones will be eliminated. Most coins will not survive one cycle, that is, four years. Putting too much energy on old garbage will miss many opportunities.
Trading itself is very boring, because the market is volatile most of the time. I basically don't do short-term trading now. If there are two opportunities in a year, the expected number of entries may be two. Wait, buy, and the rest depends on luck. Whether it will rise or not, and how much it will rise, is basically determined by luck.
Of course, many things can help you avoid pitfalls and reduce your losses, but they cannot make you money. For example, contracts. Most people cannot make money from contracts, and it is easy to take away all your fruits of victory in one wave. This is also a human nature problem. Once the gambling nature comes up, many decisions made will have a higher failure rate. Unless you think you have a big heart, you are the one who makes money in a game where 9 out of 10 people lose. Avoid obsession. Many times, if you are too optimistic about a target, you should jump out and examine the opinions of the people around you and yourself. The more similar the opinions are, the more dangerous it is, just like the trend is not only rising but also falling, but more often it is sideways. Excessive pursuit of prediction of the trend at a certain point in time and urgent transactions are counterproductive.
In short, from my experience, don’t pursue technical analysis too much, avoid pitfalls, buy and hold, and the rest can only be left to the so-called luck.
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