Even if the market breaks through 30,000 US dollars, I still don’t know what the market will do next.
Everything can only be dealt with from the perspective of probability.
1. If it breaks through $30,000, it will trigger market greed. It may lead to a large number of innocent people chasing leverage at $35,000 or $40,000, forming the high point of 2023. Over-increase in the first half of the year, and correction and deleveraging in the second half of the year.
2. If it breaks through $30,000, the market will still be rational. It will still fluctuate around $30,000, repeatedly building a bottom and exchanging time for space.
3. A sudden black swan event caused panic. A large number of innocent people fell below $25,000 or even close to $20,000, causing the annualized price of the currency to be suppressed, creating another opportunity for investors to buy at a low price.
Will the market be filled with panic or greed in the coming months?
I know nothing.
Short-term market conditions are unpredictable, but long-term market conditions do not need to be predicted.
Starting from the beginning of the year, the annualized rate in 2023 will be at least around 100%, which is 16,000 US dollars x 2, approximately 32,000 US dollars. This is the price at which the market can close and stabilize at the end of the year.
30,000 US dollars, a price that can be stabilized by the end of the year.
40,000 US dollars. There is hope of breaking through this year, but it is difficult to maintain the price.
As for the price of $50,000, $60,000, or even higher, we can only wait for the prosperous stage after the Bitcoin halving in 2024.
Trees won’t grow to the sky all of a sudden, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and a bull market is a spiral that takes at least two years.
January to March
Bitcoin has risen from $16,000 to $25,000, turning back every three steps, repeatedly bottoming out and rising. Basically, it is the real money in the market that is investing, not the fake money of the market leverage that is driving it.
If there is anything to worry about, it is whether $30,000 will trigger greed, causing it to rush forward without a bottom, and rush towards $40,000 or even close to $50,000 in just two months.
In this way, it will be easy for the market to start a long deleveraging correction later.
In other words, if the market unanimously believes that there will be a six-month correction in 2023 like in 2019, and fear outweighs greed, there may not be an over-inflation in the first half of the year. It will fluctuate back and forth around $30,000. There will not be so much leverage added, and a longer-term sustainable recovery will not be formed.
In short, the trend within a year is unpredictable.
We are in the three-year bull market, and this is only the first year of the bull market. On the way to the top of the mountain, the road ahead is by no means a straight line, but a winding and bumpy curve.
Whether you can achieve high returns depends on your will and vision.
When viewed from the front, a mountain range appears as a peak; it looks different from different distances and heights.
I cannot recognize the true appearance of Mount Lu because I am already in it.
Just because I am in this mountain...