$BTC is entering FOMC week in an unusually fragile position. The combination of pressure from miner, weak liquidity, and new macro variable is putting the market at a critical inflection point.
๐น The FOMC Trap The market is pricing in an 87.2% chance that the Fed will cut rates to 3.50%-3.75%.
If history repeat itself with the previou two cut, trader should be wary of the scenario: Slight increase before the new - Short term increase Bounce - Fall afterward.
๐ธ Liquidity & Demand:
Exchange reserves fell from 2.95 million BTC (August) to 2.76 million BTC, indicating weakening Spot demand.
A surprising development is that BTC price is now most strongly correlated with RBI liquidity, suggesting that BTC is responding to global money flow and not just the Fed.
๐น Capitulation Signal:
Miner Stress: Hash Ribbon indicator has turned Bearish, a sign of declining miner revenue and weak miners starting to shut down.
Panic Selling: STH-NUPL Short Term Holder Profit index plunged into negative territory (-0.15), confirming recent panic and loss taking by buyer.
While the short term risk is clear, with over $10 trillion of sidelined capital in money market fund , falling interest rate could trigger a risk on rotation.
Do you think this rate cut will be a Sell the new or a real boost for the Bull Run?
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