Have you noticed a phenomenon:

$BTC has recently begun to decouple significantly from US stocks,

It is no longer synchronized with the global M2 growth rate.

This article explains the reasons and how to layout next.

First, the rise of US stocks is no longer a liquidity bull market, but an independent market led by AI.

This year, the core driving force behind US stocks is not monetary easing, but the explosion of the AI industry. A large amount of capital is flowing into Nvidia, Microsoft, AI chips, and data center sectors, with nearly all of the S&P 500's rise being contributed by tech giants. Therefore, the US stock market is in an AI-led bull market rather than a broad liquidity bull market, which naturally has no driving effect on BTC, leading to a decoupling.

Second, the relationship between M2 and asset prices is weakening.

The global M2 growth rate is slowing down and has not truly flowed into the crypto market. Where has the money gone? Some has entered US stock AI, another part has flowed into government bond money funds, and yet another part is engaged in short-term arbitrage. Therefore, it is completely reasonable that BTC has not kept up with M2.

Third, Japan's interest rate hikes are changing the global capital structure.

The ultra-low interest rates of the past few years have made the yen the largest arbitrage faucet in the world. Now that Japan is starting to raise interest rates, funds are unwilling to borrow yen to buy high-risk assets, leading to yen arbitrage closures and tightening global liquidity, with high-volatility assets being the first to bear the brunt, naturally putting pressure on Bitcoin.

Fourth, the market's expectations for Bitcoin's four-year cycle are inversely affecting its trend.

Many funds believe that the next halving will lead to an early bear market, so they choose to sell early and lock in profits, further reinforcing the decoupling of BTC from traditional risk assets.

In other words: the independent AI market, M2 not flowing into crypto, Japan's interest rate hikes draining liquidity, and the market preemptively trading the four-year cycle have collectively led to the decoupling of Bitcoin from US stocks and global liquidity in the second half of this year.

What should crypto trading users do next to make money?

The core points are three.

First, do not judge the market with the old framework. BTC has already shifted from a liquidity asset to a macro + structurally driven asset. The main line in the future is not 'big liquidity', but 'where the funds are flowing, who is increasing, who is draining'. Getting the direction right is more important than getting the overall market right.

Second, focus on two types of assets:

One category includes tracks with genuine continuous growth, such as AI-related chains, computing power, data, and decentralized infrastructure.

Another category includes severely undervalued varieties at the edge of policy and liquidity headwinds, which should be positioned after low consensus signals appear, rather than blindly bottom-fishing.

Third, manage the rhythm well. Global liquidity is tightening, and high-volatility assets will experience repeated washouts. Don't bet on a single move; trade within ranges, in waves, and around events. Getting the direction right, along with position and rhythm, is key to making money.

Summary:

Don't stubbornly cling to old logic; trade according to the new flow of funds, seize structural opportunities, and patiently wait for a definitive large-cycle reversal.