Dogecoin (DOGE), the largest memecoin by market capitalization at approximately $23.28 billion, remains under heavy selling pressure as overall market sentiment continues to deteriorate. Over the past 12 months, DOGE has lost nearly 67% of its value, confirming a prolonged downtrend with no clear structural reversal yet in sight.

In the most recent 24-hour session alone, DOGE dropped another 2.4%, reinforcing the bearish tone that still dominates the market. However, beneath this gloomy price action, several critical on-chain and market indicators are beginning to shift — potentially laying the foundation for Dogecoin’s next major move.

According to Coin Photon, these signals could play a decisive role in determining DOGE’s near-term direction.

🔍 No “Bubble” Signal – Quiet Accumulation Is Taking Place

One of the most important indicators currently shaping DOGE’s outlook is the Bubble Risk Model, which gauges whether an asset is overheated or undervalued relative to historical behavior.

At present, this model continues to trend lower, signaling that:

The market is not in a speculative bubble

Investor sentiment remains in a depressed, cautious state

Normally, extreme readings in this model would warn of high downside risk during overvaluation phases. But in DOGE’s current condition, the declining bubble risk instead suggests a quiet accumulation phase rather than mass distribution.

This interpretation is strongly supported by on-chain activity growth. According to data from Santiment, the number of daily active DOGE addresses has surged to 73,560, indicating that user participation and transactional demand are gradually returning to the network.

This type of divergence — weak price but rising network usage — is often seen during early accumulation cycles.

📈 Is Real Demand for DOGE Actually Increasing?

The key question investors are now asking is: Is this accumulation translating into real buying demand?

So far, the answer appears to be yes — at least on the spot market.

Over the past week:

Retail investors have remained net buyers

The Exchange Netflow indicator has stayed firmly negative, meaning more DOGE is leaving exchanges than entering

This signals that buyers are absorbing supply rather than preparing to sell

More importantly:

Around $3 million worth of DOGE has been accumulated recently

Total weekly net buying has now reached approximately $50 million

This represents over 2% of Dogecoin’s total market capitalization in just one week

This steady accumulation on the spot market suggests that smart retail money is slowly positioning for a potential upside move, even while broader sentiment remains skeptical.

If this demand continues, DOGE could attempt a recovery toward the $0.14+ zone in the short term.

🧱 The Major Threat Ahead: The 11.72 Billion DOGE Sell Wall

Despite the improving accumulation trends, Dogecoin still faces a massive technical and liquidity-based obstacle ahead.

Data from liquidation and order book heatmaps reveals that:

A staggering 11.72 billion DOGE is clustered near the $0.20 level

This forms a huge sell wall, capable of triggering aggressive rejection if price approaches this zone

This means that:

Even if retail demand continues pushing DOGE higher

Once price enters the $0.18–$0.20 region

The market could experience a violent supply-driven reversal

In other words, $0.20 currently represents one of the most dangerous resistance levels on the DOGE chart. Any attempt to break it will require:

Sustained volume

Strong derivatives support

And ideally, a broader market risk-on environment

Without these conditions, a sharp pullback from that zone remains highly likely.

✅ Summary Outlook for Dogecoin

Price trend remains technically bearish

No bubble risk suggests downside is structurally weakening

On-chain activity and spot buying are rising

$0.14 is the first upside recovery target

$0.20 is the ultimate danger zone due to the 11.72B DOGE sell wall

Dogecoin is currently trapped between early recovery signals and a massive supply barrier. The coming sessions will likely decide whether DOGE can transition into a real trend reversal or remain stuck in a high-volatility consolidation phase.

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💬 Let me know in the comments: Do you think DOGE can break above $0.20 this cycle – or will it get rejected again?

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