$BTC $ETH $SUI
Date: December 6, 2025 (Saturday) 😨 Fear and Greed Index: 21 (Extreme Fear)

Market sentiment: The darkness before dawn?

Brothers, today's fear index has plunged directly to 21.

Although the overall market looks scary, BTC is hovering around $89,000, but on-chain data shows that some large short strategies have already exited with profits, and the short momentum is weakening. Now is not the time to cut losses, but to keep an eye out for the 'golden pit.'

🔥 Today's core Alpha: Three major signals

1. Macro 'Green Light': PCE data supports interest rate cuts

Last night, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the core PCE year-on-year rate for September recorded 2.8%, slightly lower than expected.

Interpretation: This is the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve. Although inflation remains sticky, this data is sufficient to provide reasons for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates. The valve of macro liquidity has not been completely shut, which is a long-term positive for risk assets.

2. Institutional games: Who is buying? Who is selling?

MicroStrategy (MSTR) has recently become a battlefield on Wall Street:

Buyers: The National Bank of Canada has counter-cyclically bought about $273 million (1.47 million shares) of MSTR stock. This is national-level pension/bank funds, and they are recharging your faith!

Sellers/Bearish: Cantor Fitzgerald has halved the target price for MSTR to $229, and institutions like BlackRock are also reducing their holdings.

Conclusion: There is a huge divergence among institutions, but this is precisely a characteristic of the bottom. The buying logic of the National Bank of Canada is very simple - to combat fiat currency depreciation, which is more hardcore than Wall Street's short-term valuation models.

3. New battlefield for ETFs: The 'arms race' between SUI and SOL

Bitcoin is consolidating, and funds are starting to speculate on new ETF expectations, which is a precursor to the explosion of altcoins:

SUI: Canary Capital has officially submitted a registration application for the SUI ETF to the SEC. Grayscale is also promoting related products. As a representative of high-performance public chains, SUI is replicating SOL's ascent.

SOL: Franklin Templeton has announced details of the SOL ETF, with the biggest highlight being the inclusion of staking rewards. If approved, SOL will become an interest-bearing asset, significantly more attractive than non-interest-bearing assets.

Hardcore analysis of the market (a must-read for technical analysis)

BTC: The defense of $89,000

Intraday trend: Currently quoted at $89,184. The 1-hour level is oscillating at the bottom of the range, with a slight bullish divergence in the RSI.

Key levels:

Support: $88,500 (very strong support on the 15-minute level). As long as it does not effectively break below here, there is hope for a short-term rebound.

Resistance: $92,500 (4-hour Bollinger middle line). Only breaking here can confirm a reversal.

Weekly hidden worries: The weekly K-line has left a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above $90,000. The mid-term defense logic will look at the $85,000 line.

ETH: Dancing on the edge of a cliff

Current situation: Quoted at $3,020. The exchange rate continues to decline, just like dancing on the edge of a cliff.

Pattern: The 4-hour level is forming a 'triple bottom' structure.

Strategy: $3,000 is the line of life and death, absolutely must not break. Aggressive investors can attempt to rebound from $3,000, but conservative investors are advised to wait and see for the exchange rate to stabilize.

Strategy

Spot traders: The fear index of 21 is a good time for dollar-cost averaging. Focus on SUI and SOL, which have ETF expectations and have shown capital support during declines.

Contract traders: Don't chase shorts! Don't chase shorts! The risk-reward ratio at this position is extremely poor, and it's easy to be 'trapped' by the main force. Intraday bias is to lightly test long positions near $88,500, with a good stop loss.

Mentality management: Bull markets often have sharp declines. The current pullback is to shake off the unsteady chips. Looking at the buy orders from the National Bank of Canada, will your hands still shake?

💬 Let's chat in the comments: Do you think $89,000 can hold? Will SUI be the next hundredfold coin?
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #SUİ