Tonight's market is turbulent. The hourly K-line shows ETH seemingly climbing up, but I know many friends are anxious: Can we still get on this ride? Will it hit 942 and soar? Or will the market reverse and leave me at the foot of the mountain at 884 or even 850? Don't rush; let me break it down for you.
Looking at the news: A 'nuclear-level' expectation is brewing!
This is the key information the second chart provides us: The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates in December!
This is a signal that the global faucet may be turned on again! Once the rate cut is implemented, the expectation of dollar liquidity will increase, which is a long-term, fundamental benefit for core assets like BTC and ETH. This is akin to laying down an upward track for the entire crypto market in advance. Therefore, from a big-picture perspective, I remain optimistic.
Looking at the technical aspect: there is a 'small knife' hidden in the upward trend.
It looks very clear on the chart, the trend line is upward, that's correct. But advanced players understand that the 'pullback' in a trend is the key to whether you profit or not. Currently, the two lines of MACD are above the zero axis and have turned downwards, about to form a 'death cross'.
Directly charging to 942? I don't think the probability is high. The pressure levels above are 942-1000-1050, layer upon layer, with not enough fuel to break through in one go. The market's first choice is likely to be a pullback to find support and gather strength before going up.
Qi He's personal opinion:
From tonight to tomorrow morning, ETH is likely to experience a 'down then up' fluctuation trend.
The key level below is around 884-886. This is a previous key level and a densely traded area, which will have strong buying support. It is highly likely that the market will first drop back to test this support level.
850 is a deeper defensive level. If 884 cannot hold, then the next strong support is around 850. However, considering the great expectation of interest rate cuts, I think the possibility of directly dropping to 850 is relatively small.
The real opportunity lies in the 'pullback confirmation' afterwards. If the price can stabilize in the 884-886 area and form a clear stop-loss signal, then this will be a good secondary follow-up point.
Follow Qi He, if there are unusual movements in the market tonight, I will share my analysis and observations of this 'secret weapon' with my true family at the first time. Trading cryptocurrencies is not lonely; together, we will seize our own opportunities amidst the storms! I am Qi He, a companion who just wants to help you keep pace.
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