Maciej Tomczyk, a Polish influencer and analyst, assesses that the cryptocurrency market has not yet said its last word and believes that the most interesting stage of the cycle is just beginning. He treats the current declines as a healthy correction, not a signal of the end of the trend. His analysis includes the impact of the Fed, ETFs, and American politics on the entire cryptocurrency sector.
This is an important perspective for anyone who is just getting to know cryptocurrencies and wants to understand why some experts still see potential for growth despite the chaotic market. The market is now creating conditions that, according to Maciej, may support the continuation of the bull market.
Why can cryptocurrencies still rise?
Maciej Tomczyk explains that the current cycle differs from previous ones, so one cannot look solely at historical patterns. In his opinion, the end of QT by the Fed on December 1, 2025 changes the rules of the game. History shows that after every QT, a strong bull market appeared, which is why Maciej believes the market may behave similarly. The example from 2019, when Ethereum rose by over 4000%, in his view is still relevant as a point of reference.
Additionally, there may be a potential change in the Fed that could further stimulate the market. Kevin Hassett has a good chance of becoming the new head of the Fed and is known for his pro-crypto approach. His plan for aggressive rate cuts supports risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Maciej considers this one of the strongest arguments that the cycle may last longer than many expect.
At the same time, more and more institutions are beginning to treat cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. Even in weaker months, inflows into ETFs for Solana, XRP, and Chainlink are increasing. Bank of America has been recommending clients to allocate 1–4% in crypto since January 2026, which according to Maciej shows a change in the thinking of large capital.
The new market reality according to Maciej Tomczyk
In this place, Maciej Tomczyk firmly emphasizes that he does not believe in the end of the cycle. He criticizes the repetition of patterns that, in his opinion, have no real support in the current conditions. In the material, he says:
“I am not a fanatic of looking at this table historically. I believe that the market is in a completely different place and I will talk about this shortly, so absolutely if someone writes that historically it has always been this way, in my opinion, there is no support for that. (…) It is hard for me to believe that this is the end. Too many things do not add up. In my opinion, we are in a completely different reality. (…) The calendar method does not convince me. (…) All of this leads me to believe that it is still not the end of the cycle.”
Maciej Tomczyk assesses the current Bitcoin rebound from 82,000 USD to 92,000 USD in just two days as a signal of market strength. He emphasizes that such behaviors do not occur in a typical bear market. In his opinion, it is a natural element of the cycle where the market needs to clear itself before the next upward move. He talks about not panicking and looking at the broader context.
From an investment perspective, the Polish influencer acts cautiously but still bullish. He sold part of his positions, including 40% of Solana, half of Chainlink, and 10% of Ether. However, he emphasizes that he is holding the rest because he believes that the risk-to-reward ratio still looks favorable. In particular, he points to Chainlink as one of the most undervalued cryptocurrencies, as the ATH was 52 USD, while the price oscillates around 14 USD.
The Polish crypto scandal and its impact on the cryptocurrency market
Maciej critically assesses the events related to the veto of President Karol Nawrocki. He believes that the government created a law project that aimed to push the entire industry out of Poland. The law added as many as 1228 pages of additional restrictions to the already strict MiCA regulations. In other countries, only 2 to 48 pages were added to MiCA, so the Polish scale looks to him like a deliberate action against the industry.
He points out that any company can register in another EU country based on a few pages of documentation. Then it can operate in Poland, but will pay taxes abroad. In his opinion, the government misleads the public by claiming that the law protected Poles from fraudsters and Russian money laundering. Maciej calls it a “circus on wheels” and “the highest level of disgrace,” as the MiCA mechanisms fully regulate the market.
To help beginners understand the issue, Maciej emphasizes three key points:
Poland wanted to implement the most restrictive regulations in Europe.
Companies could still operate in Poland with a license from another EU country.
The effect would be the opposite – taxes would flow out of Poland, not in.
Many beginners are now wondering if they should operate in the market. Maciej explains that the decision depends on individual plans, but his analysis shows that the cycle continues. The market still reacts to good news, suggesting that demand is not fading. However, it is important to remember that every investment requires caution.
Experts differ in opinions on whether this is still a bull market or already a bear market. The discrepancies arise from different analytical models. Some look at history, while others analyze new factors such as ETFs or changes in the Fed. Maciej belongs to the second group and sees new growth opportunities. In his opinion, the current market creates a unique environment for further bull runs.
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