The expectations for Ethereum's upgrade have also come to an end. What remains this month are the expectations for interest rate cuts and the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair. Trump has strongly suggested that Hassett is the most likely candidate to be elected. Currently, prediction websites estimate that Hassett's probability of being elected has reached 90%, which is overwhelming. If there are no unexpected outcomes, and it really is him taking office, he may be the most crypto-friendly Federal Reserve Chair in U.S. history. Of course, friendliness aside, the most important question is whether he will quickly cut interest rates as Trump hopes. I believe this is a key factor in determining how long this small-scale bear market will last.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve injected $13.5 billion into banks in one go, marking the second-largest injection since the pandemic, even exceeding any instance during the dot-com bubble burst. Does this mean that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing is about to begin? Not necessarily. Once the Federal Reserve initiates easing policies, risk assets typically face shocks, but the U.S. stock market has reacted lukewarmly. This action by the Federal Reserve may precisely reflect the fact that the liquidity in the entire risk market is exhausted. The U.S. stock market has been soaring, with investors enthusiastic, and the market leverage has repeatedly set historical highs, reaching $1.13 trillion, almost a parabolic rise. As the overall U.S. stock market crazily rises, the available funds gradually become depleted, making the Federal Reserve's action feel like a long-awaited blessing. In short, the data shows that the situation of American banks is not optimistic, and this action by the Federal Reserve is also a form of rescue, indirectly reflecting the gradual decline of the U.S. economy. Therefore, it's a short-term positive but long-term negative. After all, in a situation where market funds are scarce, it is insufficient to support another bull market. Right now, it is just relying on the fact that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month to hold things up. $BTC
