Recently, the investment plan we set earlier has been implemented quite well. The key reason is that a batch of economic data recently released by the United States has clarified the direction for the market.
Previously, the U.S. government was shut down for 43 days, and many important economic data could not be released on time. Both investors and the Federal Reserve were like 'walking in the dark,' unable to accurately assess the economic situation. Until yesterday, the manufacturing-related data for November in the U.S. finally surfaced, with two key indicators - PMI and ISM, which act like the 'barometer' of the economy. There is a simple judgment criterion for these two data: a value above 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding; below 50 means it is contracting. The recently released ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, lower than October's 48.7, and it has been below 50 for nine consecutive months, with employment and new orders also showing weak performance.
This issue looks complicated, but to put it simply, the U.S. economy is slightly 'soft'. A slowdown in economic growth provides a reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates—after all, interest rate cuts can lower borrowing costs for businesses and encourage people to take money out of savings to invest in the market, stimulating economic vitality. Now the market generally believes that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is very high, with some institutions predicting the probability to exceed 80%.
For the Bitcoin we care about, this is solid good news. Previously, due to government shutdowns and missing data, market sentiment fluctuated wildly, and Bitcoin prices followed suit. Now that the data is clear and the direction for interest rate cuts is also clear, market uncertainty has decreased significantly, and funds are more willing to flow into assets like Bitcoin. This has led to the recent strong first round of Bitcoin's rise, with many institutions increasing their positions against the trend; for instance, Harvard University's endowment fund has significantly increased its holdings in Bitcoin-related ETFs.
However, it should be reminded that the market is never only going up or down. Although the overall direction is positive now, subsequent attention must be paid to the Federal Reserve's official decisions and the price volatility risks of Bitcoin itself. For ordinary investors, following clear market signals and not blindly chasing highs is a more prudent choice.#加密市场观察
