Stop being foolish and treating BlackRock's coin transfers as a sell signal! The founder of market-making giant Wintermute has long made it clear: this is not a sell-off at all, but rather the T+1 settlement phase of ETF redemptions, and the real selling pressure was released the day before!
Looking back at November 18th, BlackRock transferred 6,300 bitcoins in one go, and the market panicked instantly, retail investors followed suit to short the market. What happened? The next day, Bitcoin only fluctuated by 0.8%, not a ripple at all! Those still watching these types of transfers and following to short are simply handing chips to institutions, a definite retail investor behavior!
Chasing highs and selling lows falls into emotional traps
On December 1, Bitcoin plummeted 4.99%, directly falling to $85,800, with the fear and greed index dropping to 14, entering the extreme fear zone! At this time, many people are panicking, either blindly bottom fishing or cutting losses to exit?
Wake up! Historical data doesn't lie: after large institutional transfers, the average market volatility the next day is only 0.56%, far below the normal daily volatility of 1.2%-1.8%. The current panic is an emotional trap intentionally created by institutions! Remember, on-chain transfers are lagging indicators; don’t be deceived by market movements; the real trend is hidden in ETF fund flows!
Ignoring core data = passive beating
Citi's quantitative model has long confirmed a key rule: for every $1 billion that flows out of Bitcoin ETFs, the price drops by an average of 3.4%! Currently, the redemption scale of IBIT has reached $2.2 billion this month, setting a record for the worst monthly performance — this is the real bearish root of the current market decline!
Stop blindly guessing based on useless transfer data! Daily ETF net inflows/outflows and changes in exchange balances (which have now fallen to the lowest level since 2018) are the keys to judging market conditions; ignoring them will only lead to passive beatings!
Second, my clear viewpoint: the trend should be viewed in two segments, and never vague!
Short term (1 - 7 days): oscillating downward, support level at 82,000
The market has completely reacted to the favorable interest rate cut news, compounded by Japan's interest rate hike and ETF fund outflows, making the short-term outlook grim.
Although BlackRock's cryptocurrency transition has not directly crashed the market, combined with the $3.5 billion ETF withdrawal wave in November, short-term selling pressure has not cleared. If it breaks below the key support level of 82,000, it could trigger leveraged liquidations, and the next step would be to test the 80,000 round number; everyone must be vigilant!
Medium to long term (1 - 3 months): opportunities arising from the downturn, positioning is possible below 90,000
In times of panic, it is precisely the best time to pick up bargains! BlackRock's IBIT scale is still approaching $100 billion, holding over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply; the logic of institutional long-term allocation has not changed!
Looking at two key signals: the current Bitcoin supply on exchanges has been decreasing, and listed companies are still accumulating over 30,000 Bitcoins each month — scarcity is evident, providing long-term value support! As long as ETF funds flow back or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the market will surely restart the upward cycle, targeting above 100,000! Now below 90,000 is a good opportunity for phased positioning!
Third, a final reminder: professional investors are focused on these two stabilization signals
Daily ETF fund flows: this is the most critical signal! If there is a net inflow for 3 consecutive days exceeding $500 million, it indicates the market is stabilizing; this is the first signal to enter the market;
On-chain holding changes: large addresses (holding over 1,000 Bitcoins) starting to accumulate means the bottom has been confirmed; feel free to position!
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the insight to see the essence and the courage to layout in advance! Rui updates live trading every day, breaking down market logic, helping everyone clarify market direction and operational strategies. Regardless of whether the market rises or falls, knowing the trend in advance allows you to seize opportunities steadily!
There are still a few slots available in the team; if you want to keep up with the rhythm, learn and communicate together, avoid traps, and seize the market, hurry up and join! Follow Rui, send a private message “team” in the background to join; if you miss this opportunity, who knows how long you'll have to wait for the next one!#美SEC推动加密创新监管
