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BON CRYPTO
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JUST IN: 💰🚨 Peter Schiff says
Bitcoin
has no real value and could go to zero if people stop believing in it.
$BTC
BTCUSDT
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 95% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 bps tomorrow, according to Polymarket.
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BITCOIN 4-YEAR CYCLE DEBATE • 4-Year Cycle Believers 🔹 4-Year Cycle Believers argue that the model is still valid because BTC has increased more than 8X from the 2022 bottom (around $15K) and this is when BTC entered a bear market. 🔹 Altcoins are not increasing as strongly as BTC because the number of alts is too large and there is no strong story like NFT in 2021 or ICO in 2017. • 4-Year Cycle Don't Believe Anymore 🔹Some units like Grayscale, CZ and expert Lynn Alden argue that the traditional 4-year cycle may no longer be true. Institutional demand has changed the model. Evidence is that BTC set ATH before halving 2024, which has never happened, plus BTC is increasingly reacting to macro factors. 🔹 BTC is currently down 2.5% on the year, which should be a bullish year in a 4-year cycle. BTC has also not had a “blow off top” while most altcoins are flat or worse than they were 4 years ago. 🔹 Investment firm Bernstein believes that recent price action suggests BTC may no longer be in a 4-year cycle. They believe BTC is entering a longer bull cycle driven by institutional money absorbing the pressure from retail investors selling. Despite BTC’s 30% correction, ETF outflows remain very low, below 5%, suggesting strong long-term demand. Bernstein maintains a long-term price target of around $1 million for BTC by 2033. 🔹 Major US bank JPMorgan remains bullish with a BTC price target of $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months. They predict the cycle peak to be in 2027, and BTC could reach around $200K. $BTC
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Fed Situation Ahead of December Rate Decision The Fed begins a two-day meeting between now and the announcement (2 a.m. on December 11). According to WSJ's Nick Timiraos, up to half of its members may not support a rate cut. However, the final decision still belongs to Chairman Powell, who has shown signs of leaning toward a cut despite facing a rare level of opposition: - Five of 12 voting members have expressed that they do not see enough reason to lower rates. - 10 of 19 Fed officials are in the same situation, although only one opposed it in October. The most likely scenario for Powell to reduce the dissent: the Fed cuts by 25 basis points, while simultaneously signaling that the conditions for further easing will be tougher. After the September jobs report, the question for the Fed is whether the labor market is slowing down because of weak hiring demand (supporting a rate cut), or because the labor supply is shrinking because of reduced immigration (no need to cut rates yet)?
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⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ Strategy continues to spend $962.7M to collect another 10,624 BTC at an average price of ~$90,615 / $BTC
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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The US Government now holds $17.8B in crypto.
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Latest News
Federal Reserve December Rate Cut Probability at 89.6%
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Bitcoin(BTC) Surpasses 94,000 USDT with a 4.04% Increase in 24 Hours
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BNB Surpasses 920 USDT with a 2.42% Increase in 24 Hours
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U.S. Labor Statistics to Release Key Economic Data in January
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Ethereum(ETH) Surpasses 3,300 USDT with a 5.54% Increase in 24 Hours
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