Price performance overview
As of December 1, 2025, the Bitcoin market has experienced a significant correction, with prices rapidly falling from their highs. The latest data shows that the Bitcoin price is $87,218.4, with a 24-hour decline of 4.05%, and a single-day drop exceeding 27,000 yuan. This decline has dragged the entire cryptocurrency market down, with Ethereum also falling 4.84% to $2,852.83, and ZEC dropping by as much as 15.51%.
Technical analysis
Multi-period K-line patterns display key signals:
• Daily level: Four consecutive days of consolidation, with K-lines showing a "narrow range fluctuation" pattern, closing with three small bullish candles with upper and lower shadows, forming the early shape of a bullish reversal engulfing pattern. The EMA trend indicator is starting to contract, and the MACD indicator's green bars continue to narrow and increase, with clear signs of bottom divergence.
• 4-hour level: The upward channel remains intact, the EMA trend indicator is contracting, EMA120 is suppressing at $92,800, and EMA30 is supporting at $90,300. The K-line is fluctuating narrowly in the range of $90,250-$91,850, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to contract.
• 1-hour level: A "double top prototype" has formed at the $92,000 level, with EMA7 showing signs of crossing below EMA30, indicating a death cross and a decrease in short-term upward momentum.
Key support and resistance levels:
• Key support levels: First support at $90,300, second support at $90,000, third support at $89,000, strong support at $82,000.
• Key resistance levels: First resistance at $91,930, second resistance at $92,800, third resistance at $93,000, strong resistance at $94,500.
Market capital and sentiment analysis
Capital flow dynamics:
• The siphoning effect of ETF funds is significant, with Bitcoin ETF recently attracting nearly $129 million in inflows and Ethereum ETF inflows exceeding $78 million.
• In the past 24 hours, a total of $273 million in liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency market, of which $197 million were short liquidations, with Bitcoin leading the way with $86 million in liquidations.
• About 180,000 people in the cryptocurrency market were liquidated, with total liquidation amount reaching $537 million, of which the amount of long liquidations was $470 million.
Market sentiment indicators:
• The cryptocurrency "fear and greed index" has gradually recovered from the previous "extreme fear" area and is currently in the "neutral to optimistic" range.
• The market positions long-short ratio is 67.39%:32.61%, with bulls slightly in the lead, but no extreme crowded conditions have appeared.
Macroeconomic driving factors
Core driving factors:
1. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations dominate: The current market expects a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with the dovish statement from the New York Fed president reinforcing rate cut expectations, and global risk appetite is rising.
2. Policy expectation catalysis: As the end of the year approaches, the policy window period is nearing, and the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming clear in major global economies, reducing market uncertainty.
3. Market structure improvement: After the previous "leverage cleanup", speculative positions in the market have significantly decreased, and the chip structure has become healthier.
Potential suppression factors:
1. Federal Reserve policy game: Inflation remains above the 2% target, hawkish officials warn of interest rate cut risks; if subsequent policy signals turn, it may trigger fluctuations in foreign capital flows.
2. Technical pressure: Selling pressure is concentrated in the range of $92,000-$93,000, and the volume has not yet been fully released.
3. Geopolitical risks: Conflicts in Lebanon and Israel, and the Russia-Ukraine situation may trigger a rise in global risk aversion.
Outlook and operational strategy for the future market.
Short-term trend outlook:
There is a high probability of continuing the "narrow fluctuation + directional choice" pattern, with the core fluctuation range during the day being $90,000-$93,000. If the morning session can break through the mid-band of $91,930 with significant volume, it is expected to impact the resistance range of $92,800-$93,000; if it fails to break through and falls below $90,300, it may test the support area of $90,000-$89,500 in the short term.
Medium-term trend outlook:
The bottom features are clear, and it is highly likely to present a "fluctuating upward" trend. If it can break through the strong resistance of $94,500, the next target looks towards the upper band of $101,800; if it falls below the support of $89,000, it may test the lower band of $82,000.
Operational strategy recommendation:
• Aggressive investors: Build positions in the range of $90,500-$91,000, with a stop loss at $89,800 and a target of $92,500-$93,000.
• Stable investors: Wait for confirmation of a breakout before entering the market. If the price stabilizes above $92,000 and volume increases, go long.
• Conservative investors: Mainly wait and watch, waiting for clear unilateral signals before taking action.
Risk warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, with daily price fluctuations potentially exceeding 5%. The market is greatly affected by sudden factors such as policy, capital, and geopolitical events. It is recommended to strictly control positions, setting stop losses no more than 3%-5% of the principal to avoid blindly chasing highs or cutting losses. Investors should comply with national laws and regulations and regulatory requirements, and beware of investment risks.
Chen Xi only engages in real trading, the team still has positions available for quick entry.
