Bitcoin finally kicked through 90,000 this morning and pulled up to 92,000. This is the first time since the panic crash in November that it can be considered an 'effective breakthrough'.
What’s even more interesting is that Coinbase's negative premium against Binance has lasted for a full 29 days and finally turned positive today. During the acceleration from April to October, Coinbase always had a positive premium, primarily driven by Europe and the United States. This reversal in premium is likely a signal that the wind has changed.
The macroeconomic indicators are also starting to show green lights: expectations for a rate cut in December are heating up, U.S. stocks have risen for four consecutive days, tech stocks are recovering across the board, and ETFs have seen two days of inflow. Although the amounts aren't large, at least it has stopped the bleeding. Whether funds will return to the cryptocurrency market depends on whether there are stronger positive signals in the future.
The warming sentiment may also be related to Trump’s phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, which has temporarily suppressed geopolitical risks; there are also discussions about a new version of a peace plan in the Russia-Ukraine situation, which will likely reduce volatility.
There are also negative factors: S&P downgraded USDT to the worst rating, citing reasons such as significant reserve risks and lack of transparency. However, Tether has survived ten years through storms without collapsing, so this kind of news is just something to watch. Upbit was hacked for 380 million USD today, but for the universe, this is hardly a concern; their parent company was just fully acquired by Naver for 10.3 billion USD, so this little hole will be filled in no time.
Altcoins as a whole have not followed the rise, as many are waiting for the market to confirm a reversal; instead, meme coins have taken off first, with $fartcoin, $spx, and $brett all rebounding by around 20%; launch pads and application-related coins like $met, $virtual, $ena, $pendle, and $ethfi are also making moves, while mining coin $kas continues to be strong.
But speaking of the previous point: if there really is a wave of altcoin season, it is likely to be the 'last round'. The ecosystem of old altcoins has become extremely awkward; in the future, they will either go to zero or be eliminated. If you can switch to mainstream, do it; don’t cling to the end and get buried.
