After the market closed yesterday, I stared at the additional 32 W in my account and suddenly felt that the full-sugar mango pomelo sago from the milk tea shop downstairs was no longer too sweet. You should know that five years ago, I was still in debt up to seven figures, and when I moved late at night, I was too afraid to take the utility bill that the landlord handed me, fearing that if I talked for even a moment longer, I would be asked about the repayment date.
You might not believe it when I say this, but when I first entered the crypto market, I was just a clueless rookie who couldn't even distinguish between 'volume' and 'K-line'. With a makeshift starting capital of 10 W and after reading a couple of 'quick success guides', I thought I could become a 'master'. As a result, within less than six months, I ended up losing everything. At my worst, I was cooking instant noodles in a 10 square meter rental room, agonizing over whether to buy a sausage, staring at the few thousand yuan left in my account at night, my hands trembling as I thought about clicking 'close account', but I just couldn't bring myself to do it: why can others make money in this market while I can only be a 'leek'?
After more than 3000 days and nights, I finally chewed and swallowed the four words 'crypto market'. It wasn't based on any insider news, nor did I encounter so-called 'supermarkets'; it was all due to a stubborn persistence: while others were shouting 'charge' in the group, I was reviewing the volume data from the past 3 years; when others lost money and cursed the market for 'trapping people', I filled my notebook with where the stop loss points went wrong; there was even a time when I miscalculated my position, lost two months' rent, squatted on the balcony eating cold steamed buns, and still thought about how to improve my strategy next time.
Looking back now, those sleepless nights after 'liquidating positions', those days of eating instant noodles while reviewing my trades, were actually the market teaching me how to 'survive'. Today, I will share my 6 'life-saving iron rules' that I have endured for 8 years. Each one carries my blood and tears; if novice friends understand them, at least they can avoid 80% of the pitfalls:
Volume is the 'true words' of the market
I have told my students countless times that the K-line is like the market's 'polite talk'; it looks fancy but lacks substantial content; volume is the 'true words', hiding the real direction of funds. If volume remains stable during a slow decline, and increases during a rapid rise, it's not that the main force is 'harvesting', but quietly 'stockpiling'; however, if there is a sudden increase in volume after a rapid rise and then a crash, it means someone is 'spreading sugar' to hook you in, and what awaits is definitely a 'trap'—last year, a certain coin surged by 20% and then fell by 15% with increased volume. I advised my students to withdraw quickly, and it ended up falling directly by 40%. Many people said they were glad they didn't step into the pit.
Don't reach out for rebounds after a flash crash
Friends often ask me: 'Teacher, can I bottom fish after a flash crash?' I always retort: 'Have you ever seen someone who fell into a pit just get back up and turn around to pick things up?' The rebound after a flash crash looks like 'a lifesaver', but it is actually 'bait'—the main force drives the price down and then slightly lifts it, making you think 'it can rise'; once you go in, the bottom is directly smashed through. I fell for this in 2021, bottom fishing after a flash crash, and ended up losing 50,000. Since then, I have never touched such 'sugar-coated shells'.
High-level shrinkage is more dangerous than expansion
Many people think that a top volume will cause a crash, but actually, long-term shrinkage at a high level is even scarier—this is like the calm before a storm; on the surface, it looks calm, but the funds below have already secretly fled. I once paid attention to a coin that consolidated at a high level for half a month, with decreasing volume. I warned my fans to withdraw quickly, and within a week, it dropped by 35%; those who didn't leave were directly trapped.
Building positions at the bottom awaits 'double confirmation'
The most common mistake beginners make is to rush in at a single volume spike. In fact, a single volume spike doesn't count; it may be the main force testing the water. Only after a period of oscillation and shrinkage followed by an increase in volume is it truly the right time to build a position. Just like that mainstream coin in the second half of last year, it first oscillated and shrank for 20 days, and then suddenly increased in volume and rose. I advised my students to build positions in batches, and in the last half month, it rose by 60%. Many people made their first pot of gold.
Volume is the 'heartbeat' of the market
I often tell people to look at volume first when observing the market, just like a doctor feels the pulse first when diagnosing an illness. When volume shrinks, the market is like in a 'cold scene', and no one is willing to enter; at this time, don't act rashly; when volume increases, it indicates that funds are 'surging'. It can either be an opportunity or a risk, and you need to look carefully in conjunction with the trend— for example, when volume rises, if the volume remains consistent, it is highly likely to continue rising; if it shrinks quickly after a rise, you need to be cautious of a pullback.
Mindset is 100 times more important than skills
Someone asked me: 'Teacher, your skills are so good, have you ever not lost?' I laughed. If I had never lost, would I have made a mistake 3 years ago because I was too eager to place an order, turning 'buy' into 'sell' and losing two months' rent? In the crypto market, being able to hold a position without obsession, not being greedy or fearful, and daring to buy is not 'Buddhist', it's a 'life-saving skill'. I have seen too many people who chase after others when they make money, panic when they lose, fighting for discounted vegetables in a market, and in the end, they all buy 'rotten leaves'.
In fact, the crypto market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks is someone who can calm down. I once suffered greatly in the dark because I was too anxious and greedy. Later, I understood that this market is not a 'casino', but a 'test center'; those who can endure are those who can stabilize their mindset and understand the signals.
Now I receive many messages from friends every day, saying they are groping in the market, sometimes being hooked by 'sudden surges' and sometimes scared by 'flash crashes'. Don't be afraid, I went through this too. Next, I'll share my market observation notes weekly, teaching you how to find signals from volume, and how to set stop losses to avoid being trapped. If this article is useful to you today, give it a follow. The next time you want to 'chase the rise', come back and take a look at this article, maybe it can help you calm down.
By the way, if you have any volume trends you don't understand or don't know how to cope with 'oscillating markets', let me know in the comments, and I will talk specifically next time. Let's stabilize ourselves in the crypto market, avoiding being 'chasing rises and killing falls' leeks, and instead become hunters who 'understand signals'. I'll be waiting for your messages here; see you next time!
#加密市场反弹 $ETH
