The number of holders of the S&P 500 index is increasing, but market momentum is weakening—can liquidity reverse this trend?

Currently, the price performance of the S&P 500 (SPX) is relatively weak, with funds flowing out from holders, and the market seems to be in a "accumulation phase." From the order distribution, there are more orders concentrated below the current price. If liquidity dominates the price direction, the short-term probability of a decline may be higher than that of an increase.

However, the meme coin sector has been active during the same period: the market capitalization of the sector has increased by 3% to $42.01 billion in the past 24 hours, and trading volume has surged by 11% to $4.96 billion. Among them, the SPX6900 index has increased by over 7% in a single day and accumulated a 14% increase over the week, while top coins like FARTCOIN, BONK, and PENGU have seen daily returns double.

On the three chains of Base, Solana, and Ethereum, the number of holders of SPX6900 is also increasing: the Base chain has the most holdings, reaching 107,827 shares; followed by Solana (68,902 shares) and Ethereum (48,754 shares). The week-over-week growth of holders in the Ethereum ecosystem is particularly pronounced (567+242), and Solana's week-over-week growth is 69. Although the SPX6900 price remains around $0.5, the increase in holders aligns with the characteristic of "accumulating at low prices."

From a technical perspective, SPX meme coins encounter resistance at $0.6, limiting short-term price increases; if this resistance can be broken, it may rise to $0.75 or even return to $1. However, current long-short indicators show that while buyer strength is strong, momentum is weakening. Open interest (OI) has dropped from a peak of $14.24 million at $0.4398 to $9.73 million, and this "volume-price divergence" typically indicates a potential market reversal.

Google Trends data shows that the attention for this asset has stabilized around 36 in the past 30 days, with a peak in interest at the beginning of November due to price fluctuations between $0.6 and $0.75.

From the liquidity distribution, liquidity is currently more concentrated below the current price (below $0.54), with the $0.48-$0.52 range being the most active for trading; while the liquidity above $0.58 is far less than that below. This means that if the price follows the direction of liquidity, the probability of a decline is greater; but if buy orders exceed sell orders, a rebound may also be triggered. It is worth noting: if the support level of $0.4398 can hold, the S&P 500 index may first decline and then rebound.