1️⃣ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
🔴 Important support levels:
- $85,000 - $86,000: Strong psychological support
- $82,000 - $83,000: November accumulation zone, strong technical support
- $78,000 - $80,000: November bottom, if it reaches here = deep correction of 15-20%
🟢 Resistance to overcome:
- $90,000: Short-term resistance
- $93,000 - $95,000: Major selling zone, strong volume needed to break
2️⃣ MARKET PSYCHOLOGY
😨 Fear & Greed Index: Currently in the FEAR zone (25-35) - usually a good bottom-buy signal
📊 Sentiment:
Panic selling among investors is increasing
Whales are still accumulating strongly
Long liquidations are increasing → selling pressure is gradually decreasing
3️⃣ POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
🟢 POSITIVE SCENARIO (60% probability):
$BTC test the 85K−86K range, creating a short-term bottom
Whales continue to buy → creating a recovery foundation
Recovery to 92K−95K in the next 1-2 weeks
End of December target: 98K−105K
🔴 NEGATIVE SCENARIO (30% probability):
Break below $85K → panic selling
Drop deep to 78K−82K (20% correction from the peak)
⚠️ WORST CASE SCENARIO (10% probability):
A "black swan" event (macroeconomic crisis, major exchange hack...)
Below $75K→Short-term bear market
4️⃣ IMPACT FACTORS
✅ POSITIVE FACTORS:
History: December usually sees a strong rise (Santa Rally)
Whales are accumulating very strongly
Bitcoin ETF still has stable cash inflow
Halving 2024 → supply scarcity
❌ NEGATIVE FACTORS:
Fed may cut rates slower than expected
Year-end profit-taking from funds
Selling pressure from panicked retail investors
5️⃣ STRATEGY RECOMMENDATIONS
📌 If you don't have a position:
✅ Gradually buy: Split 3-4 orders at 87K→85K → $82K
✅ Stop loss: Set below 81K if BTC is below 82K
✅ Short target: 92K−95K (profit 8-12%)
✅ Long target: 105K−110K (end of Q4 or early Q1/2025)
📌 If you’re holding:
🔸 Strong hold if bought below $85K
🔸 DCA more if it drops to 82K−85K
🔸 Take some profits when it returns to $95K+
📌 If you're at a loss:
❌ DO NOT panic sell
✅ Reassess your position, cut losses if exceeding risk tolerance
✅ Average down if you believe in the long-term trend
🎯 CONCLUSION
Bitcoin is in a healthy correction phase after rising over 40% in November. The 85K−87K range is a good buying opportunity for medium to long-term players.
⚠️ NOTE This is not investment advice—always DYOR!
#BTCVolatility #bitcoin
