Everything we wanted has come, but why hasn't your coin increased in value?
—Regulation has been implemented, ETFs are launched, companies are adopting... yet it has not led to the real reason for a price surge.
In the past year, the crypto industry has welcomed a 'historical triple good news':
Crypto ETFs are fully launched
Stablecoins have become the native payment tools for mainstream companies
Regulation has shifted from hostility to friendliness
According to the traditional narrative logic of Crypto Twitter: as long as institutions come, regulation is clear, Wall Street participates, and companies adopt... the entire industry should fly to the moon.
Everything we wanted has come—but the prices have not.
Bitcoin did reach new highs in 2024–2025, but subsequently gave back most of its gains; the US stock market rose 15–20% throughout the year, but altcoins remained collectively languishing at rock bottom. Retail investors' favorite L2, AI, GameFi, and Layer 3 cryptocurrencies were in dire straits.
Why is this happening? Why have all the bullish factors been priced in, but the price of the coin hasn't reflected them?
In this article, Yongqi thoroughly explains the most fundamental structural contradictions in the crypto market over the past year.
01｜What We Thought Was a “Crypto Bull Market” vs. What Actually Happened
02｜All the positive factors have arrived, but why aren't prices rising?
03｜Bitcoin stands apart from the industry, while other blockchains are trapped in a valuation black hole
04 | Crypto's Real User Base and the "Market Value Illusion"
05 | Market Returns to Fundamentals: The Truth About Income Quality
06｜Casino-style income vs. real economic income
07｜Why can NVDA rise, but crypto blockchains cannot replicate it?
08｜Regulation, ETFs, Corporate Adoption: Why Don't They Immediately Result in Prices?
09｜Stablecoins and Enterprise Crypto: Where Lies the Real Trillion-Dollar Opportunity?
10 | Infrastructure Bubble and Application Layer Gap
11 | The winners of the next decade will not be L1 / L2
12 | The Next 10 Years: Crypto's Real Value Capture Zone
13 | What should investors do now?
14 | Conclusion: Great technological revolutions will eventually move into the real world.
01 | All the good news is here: ETFs, regulation,
Businesses are adopting it... but where did the price go?
In 2024–2025, almost every positive development that Crypto had been hoping for for years came to fruition:
All US-listed Bitcoin ETFs were approved, attracting hundreds of billions of dollars; Ethereum spot ETFs were launched, with some enabling restaking; more than 20 listed companies worldwide integrated USDC/USDT into their payment systems.
Regulatory policies have shifted from hostile to constructive governance; stablecoins have become the new infrastructure for global cross-border payments; BlackRock, Fidelity, Visa, and Stripe have all entered the market.
All the catalysts that were once hailed as "the catalysts for the next bull market" have come true.
However, asset prices did not surge as expected. Bitcoin rose and then fell back, Ethereum stagnated, and most mainstream altcoins remained underwater.
Meanwhile, the US stock market rose 15-20% throughout the year; Nvidia's valuation broke historical highs; and AI became the hottest sector for global investment.
The crypto industry has received the strongest "macroeconomic boost package" in history, but the market's reaction can only be summed up in one sentence:
"I know you're a good person, but I don't want to buy it right now."
Why is this happening? Because a harsh reality is emerging—
There has long been a huge disconnect between the valuation of crypto and its "value" in the real world.
02 | Biggest Misconception: Mistaking "Narrative Advantages" for "Economic Value"
For the past decade, the crypto industry has been gripped by a deep-seated assumption: "When institutions come, it's To The Moon."
However, when ETFs, regulatory frameworks, and corporate adoption were all implemented, the market realized one thing:
Prices are not built up by narratives, but supported by real economic activity.
Cryptocurrency prices can be driven up by sentiment, but market capitalization cannot be maintained by sentiment.
Most of the valuation logic for crypto over the past decade has been based on "upfront pricing":
We anticipate 1 billion users in the future; we anticipate all financial transactions to be on-chain; we anticipate all enterprises to migrate to the blockchain; we anticipate all countries to issue CBDCs; we anticipate Web3 to devour Web2; we anticipate Rollups to devour traditional cloud computing.
All of these are value estimates based on overall expectations!
But what has actually been implemented? Global daily active users on the blockchain are approximately 40 million.
The combined annual revenue of all public blockchains worldwide is less than $4 billion, with the majority of revenue coming from: perpetual contracts, liquidation, early access, and Meme coin minting.
The actual volume of "economic activity" in the entire industry is far smaller than its "financial market capitalization".
This leads to a fundamental problem: Crypto's valuation is ahead of its actual value creation.
Once ETFs, regulations, and corporate adoption are implemented, the market is examining this industry for the first time based on "fundamentals" rather than "dreams."
03 | Bitcoin's Independent Logic: It is a Self-Consistent Asset
Of all crypto assets, Bitcoin is the only category whose narrative is highly consistent with reality.
What is the narrative? Digital gold? Inflation hedge? Nation-independent asset? Scarce, transparently supplied store of value?
Bitcoin's current market capitalization is approximately $1.9 trillion; gold's market capitalization is approximately $29 trillion.
BTC accounts for 10%
From any perspective, its valuation is self-consistent. It does not require user growth, revenue growth, or ecosystem growth.
It doesn't need to be the "world computer." But what about other public blockchains?
04 | Ethereum + Solana + All Other Chains =
A market capitalization of $1.5 trillion: Is that enough to sustain it?
The real structural problem in the industry lies here: the actual usage scale of public blockchains does not match their market capitalization.
Assumptions: The number of real users on the global blockchain is approximately 30-50 million.
Annual revenue of mainstream public blockchains (Fee + MEV):
Ethereum: $2 billion; Solana: $1-1.5 billion; All other chains: less than $1 billion in total.
But what about market capitalization? ETH: $400 billion; SOL: $75-80 billion
Other blockchains: Totaling over $200 billion
You will find the problem:
A $1 revenue is given a PS ratio of 200 to 400 by the market.
In the Web2 space, this kind of valuation only exists at the peak of a bubble; on the eve of a high-growth SaaS real estate market; and in knock-off AI concept stocks.
But in the realm of crypto, it's taken for granted. This is because crypto has been brainwashed by a myth over the past decade: "Blockchain is the next generation of the internet."
Yes, the technology has enormous potential. But potential ≠ current value.
05 | Misconception: Treating "casino turnover" as "software revenue"
This may be the biggest misconception in the entire crypto industry. Many analytical frameworks like to treat public blockchains as SaaS:
There is revenue, there are expenses, there are users, and there is growth.
Therefore, giving it a PS of 50x or 100x seems reasonable. But there is a key issue here: most of the revenue of public blockchains comes from speculation rather than real economic activity.
For example:
The surge in perpetual contracts → Gas price increase → Ethereum revenue surge
Meme coin minting → Explosive increase in on-chain activity → Explosive increase in Solana revenue
Liquidation wave → Increased MEV → Soaring revenue
However, these activities fall into the categories of: one-off events, periodic events, and speculative events.
They are not recyclable and are not stable.
This leads to a fundamental conclusion: the "revenue quality" of public blockchains is far lower than that of technology companies.
Not Shopify. Not Google Cloud. It's—Las Vegas-style revenue.
"If you don't open for business for three years, you can live off it for three years once you do."
You can't multiply this revenue model by SaaS.
06｜Why can Nvidia's stock price rise, but cryptographic chains cannot be replicated?
Simply put: NVDA's revenue comes from enterprise purchases, which is stable and predictable. CryptoChain's revenue comes from speculation, which is unstable and unpredictable.
Nvidia's valuation is 40–45 times earnings, with significant annual profit growth; 90% of global AI training relies on its chips; and most of its revenue is "contractual," "recurring," and "enterprise-grade."
This is the most stable business model in the world.
In contrast, cryptocurrencies generate 90% of their revenue from transactions; they are cyclical; unpredictable; and lack long-term corporate contracts.
These are two different worlds, completely different things.
07｜Why didn't ETFs, regulators, and corporate adoption immediately drive up prices?
Because these positive factors all fall under the category of "infrastructure benefits".
Rather than "benefiting from increased usage".
The launch of ETFs will bring in funds, but not immediately.
The adoption of stablecoins will expand global on-chain payments, but this will not be immediately reflected in gas fees.
Businesses that adopt encryption technology will experience a new wave of growth within 5–10 years, not just in the week of launch.
The current problem in the crypto market is that investment is too upfront, while value realization is lagging behind. This is the fundamental reason for the lack of price increases.
08 | The Real Trillion-Dollar Opportunity: Not L1
It's not L2, but rather "enterprise encryption".
I strongly agree with the insights you made in your original post, and I will amplify them here:
The infrastructure has already been over-built; the greatest value capture in the future will occur at the user aggregation layer.
Just like in the internet age: nobody made money with TCP/IP; profits from fiber optics and routers were limited; the ones who really made money were Amazon, Google, and Apple.
Because the user layer is the value capture layer. The future structure of the crypto space will follow the same principle.
Layer 1: Commercialization
Layer 2: Increased competition → Price involution
Rollup: Marginal cost is close to zero
Block space: Exponential expansion of supply
The long-term valuation of L1/L2 will tend towards: "high market capitalization, high P/E ratio, but low value capture".
Transforming into something similar to internet infrastructure: telecom operators; large cloud networks; CDNs; fiber optic networks
Not tech giants. The real trillion-dollar sector is:
By embedding blockchain technology into existing enterprise systems, efficiency can be improved, costs reduced, and payment networks expanded.
For example: stablecoins replacing Swift, USDC/USDT replacing global cross-border banks, on-chain settlement replacing the old ACH & Fedwire, on-chain reconciliation for enterprises, tokenized supply chain finance, on-chain asset tokenization, on-chain identity, invoices, credit, and inventory.
These are not "dreams," but realities that are happening right now:
Stripe integrates USDC
Visa uses Solana as a payment track.
PayPal uses PYUSD
JP Morgan uses the Onyx blockchain
BlackRock launches BUIDL into its on-chain fund
The real wave of applications has just begun.
09 | Why is the "infrastructure investment logic" no longer applicable?
Because the infrastructure has already been pushed to its limits.
TPS: Sufficient and still skyrocketing; Gas: Getting cheaper and cheaper; Rollup: Hundreds on the way.
Data availability: costs are broken down; Modularization: reduces the diversity of the chain.
Technical barriers to entry: continuously decreasing; developers: scattered across dozens of blockchains.
Innovation: Declining Marginal Benefits
The biggest value capturers in the future will be: the encrypted product layer that can directly serve hundreds of millions of users.
These products may be:
Super Wallet (the future "crypto Alipay"), Global Stablecoin Payment App, Enterprise On-Chain Reconciliation System
Consumer-grade on-chain storage solutions, on-chain identity systems, and on-chain settlement tools for cross-border e-commerce.
They will capture real business value, not L1 or L2.
10 | What should investors do now?
Here's a summary of 10 actionable strategies for you:
① Look at real income, not TVL: TVL is a byproduct of speculation.
② Focus on “income quality” rather than “income quantity”: cyclical income ≠ sustainable income.
③ Choose tracks with "real growth in usage": not just increasing followers, but real growth in economic activity.
④ Investing in the application layer is worse than investing in infrastructure: The most profitable sector in the next decade will not be blockchain, but rather:
Stablecoin companies, wallets, payment gateways, enterprise crypto infrastructure, RWA platforms, next-generation on-chain banks (Cryptobanks)
⑤ Stop using "dream valuation": Look at existing users, existing revenue, and business model.
⑥ Shift from narrative investing to fundamental investing
⑦ Focus on the intersection of off-chain and on-chain: This is the golden track of the future.
⑧ Do not blindly follow imitations, and do not fantasize about the return of the "100x chain" era.
9. Allocate to stable assets: BTC + tokens linked to the real economy
⑩ Focus your understanding on the next 10 years, not on the next halving.
11 | Conclusion: This is the true "end of the beginning" for the crypto industry.
This is not the end of the bull market. This is not the end of crypto.
Rather, it means: "The era of rising prices through narratives is over, and the era of returning to fundamentals in value is beginning."
We spent 10 years building the infrastructure. The next 10 years will be the era of applications and users.
What can truly change the world is not TPS, not block size, not MEV.
Instead, it encompasses: global payments, global settlements, global asset flows, enterprise supply chains, on-chain financial infrastructure, and new ways to put GDP on-chain.
The real golden age for the crypto industry is only just beginning.
The crypto industry has created the most powerful value transfer network in history over the past decade.
But we treat it as: a meme casino; a perpetual slot machine; an airdrop game; a leveraged arena.
This is not the end of the industry, but rather: "the end of the beginning".
Over the next decade, what we need to do is not build faster chains, create more dazzling Rollups, or issue more tokens.
Instead, it's about putting real GDP on the blockchain, using blockchain to solve real-world problems, making businesses willing to pay for efficiency, and making users willing to pay for a better experience.
The job isn't finished. The real story is just beginning.
In-depth observation, independent thinking, and value that goes beyond price.
Star#WallStreetCryptoIntelligenceBureauto never miss great content ⭐
Finally: Many of the views expressed in this article represent my personal understanding and judgment of the market and do not constitute investment advice for you.
