The U.S. government's openings and closings have become cyclical.
In 2023 and 2024, there were similar fiscal cliff crises, temporary funding measures, short-term compromises, and then renewed arguments. The result is that each time it is resolved at the last minute, but the core issues of fiscal deficit, debt ceiling, and expenditure structure are never truly addressed.
In 2025, it will be the same again: Washington has temporarily stopped the bleeding, but the pain remains. The market seems to have sighed with relief, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds rebounding slightly, but everyone knows it will happen again in a few months.
For us retail investors, this kind of repeated game is the most terrifying black swan.
From the US sovereign rating downgrade during the debt ceiling crisis in 2011, which caused the stock market to plunge 17%, to the negotiation deadlock at the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin also fluctuated over 20% in a week. Political uncertainty often pierces market sentiment more than macro data. Short-term positive news can boost prices, but long-term risks always remain. What we see is not a solution, but just repeated delays.
The more normalized the suspension becomes, the more it exposes the vulnerabilities of traditional finance, while also serving as a test of anti-fragility in the crypto world.
In summary: the short-term kills liquidity, and the long-term kills decentralization— the more chaotic the suspension, the more crypto thrives.
