40 days of shutdown come to an end! The battle for Bitcoin at the 100,000 mark is critical; is a small bull market really coming?

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history ends after 40 days, marking not just a breakthrough in the political deadlock but also a 'liquidity turning point' for the crypto market. Bitcoin rebounded from a six-month low of $99,000, with institutions quietly buying the dip and on-chain signals showing unusual activity. Is this wave of market movement a rebound or the start of a small bull market? Below, we will use the simplest logic + hardcore data to help you see the opportunities and risks behind it!

1. How severe was the shutdown? Bitcoin was 'liquidity-choked' to the point of lying flat.

1. 1 trillion TGA account: The market was drained of 200 billion 'fresh water'.

The "money bag" of the US Treasury (TGA account) wildly "sucked in money" during the shutdown, soaring from 800 billion USD to 1 trillion USD, equivalent to directly withdrawing 200 billion in liquidity from the financial market. This directly caused the interbank borrowing rate (SOFR) to spike to 4.22%, a new high since March 2020 during the pandemic.

Banks are all short on USD, which naturally affects the crypto market. In the first week of November, Bitcoin directly fell below 99,000 USD, setting a six-month low, with 47.87 million USD in contracts liquidated in one day; many high-leverage retail investors were directly "harvested."

2. Institutions + long-term holders: dual selling confuses the market

The world's largest Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's IBIT, saw a net outflow of up to 403 million USD during the week from October 28 to November 3, accounting for more than half (50.4%) of the total market outflow. More critically, on-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, long-term holders (LTH) who have held their coins for more than a year sold 405,000 BTC, valued at 4.2 billion USD at current prices, accounting for 2% of the circulating supply.

These core investors are all selling, indicating that market concerns about the prolonged suspension have reached a critical point, and even the "dead bulls" can't hold on anymore.

2. End of suspension = "liquidity?" Liquidity flood should push up Bitcoin

1. TGA "money out": for every decrease of 100 billion, the market gains 80 billion in liquidity

After the government restarts, the 1 trillion USD in the TGA account will flow back into the market through paying civil servant salaries, defense procurement payments, and social welfare, etc. Historical data has verified that for every 100 billion USD decrease in the TGA account, market liquidity increases by about 80 billion USD.

This money won't just sit in the bank; it will most likely first flow into money market funds, and then gradually enter the crypto market through ETFs, quantitative funds, and other channels. There are already signals — on November 9, BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of 120 million USD in a single day, indicating that institutions are starting to position themselves in advance.

2. Sentiment reversal: risk alleviated, funds rush to enter

The end of the suspension equates to "risk warning lifted," and market sentiment suddenly heated up. During the Asian morning session, US stock index futures rose over 2% directly, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded from 99,000 USD to 104,000 USD, with Ethereum following up with a 5% increase.

This is not the first time that "expectations lead the way." After Trump's victory in November 2024, Bitcoin rose 45% within two weeks, directly breaking through 99,000 USD. Now that the suspension is over, funds are starting to rush to position themselves, fearing to miss the next wave of the market.

3. Halving + liquidity: double buffs stacking

After Bitcoin's halving in April 2024, the annual inflation rate dropped to 1.7%, and supply was already limited. Coupled with a cumulative net inflow of over 30 billion USD in spot ETFs, institutional funds had already front-run the cycle.

Now that TGA is releasing liquidity, it perfectly resonates with the supply contraction after the halving — on one side, money is increasing, while on the other side, coins are becoming scarce. Under this combination, Bitcoin is likely to challenge 120,000 USD by the end of 2025.

3. Keep a close eye on 3 signals + avoid 3 pitfalls, don't step on landmines!

1. 3 observation windows: confirm the bull market is really coming

  • TGA balance: If it can fall below 800 billion USD before the end of November, it indicates that liquidity release is accelerating, and the market is coming;

  • SOFR and SRF: When the interbank borrowing rate (SOFR) returns to the normal range of 3.75%-4.00% and the usage of the Fed's repurchase tool (SRF) drops below 10 billion USD, it indicates that banks are no longer short on USD, and market liquidity is restored;

  • ETF fund flows: BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of over 500 million USD for two consecutive weeks, indicating that institutions are "entering on a trend," not just short-term bottom fishing.

2. 3 risk points: be careful of market fluctuations

  • Policy delay: the Senate may amend the appropriations bill, triggering a 30-hour debate period. If it drags on past November 15, market sentiment will adjust;

  • Regulatory tightening: After the suspension ends, the US SEC may increase compliance reviews of crypto exchanges, which will suppress prices in the short term;

  • Pressure from trapped positions: In the range of 105,000 - 108,000 USD, there are about 120,000 Bitcoins trapped; to break through, the daily trading volume needs to exceed 50 billion USD, otherwise, it is easy to be pushed down.

4. History won't repeat itself, but it will rhyme: here's how to grasp the small bull market

1. 12 years of data verification: November is Bitcoin's "golden rebound month"

In the past 12 years, Bitcoin has risen 10 times in October, with an average increase of 21.89%. The bull markets in 2017 and 2021 both started in October. Although it fell 8% in October 2025 due to the suspension, the liquidity recovery in November is likely to create a "golden pit" rebound.

2. Institutions take the lead: the current market is different from before

Unlike the bull market of 2020, the proportion of institutional holdings in the Bitcoin market has risen from 5% to 22%. This means that Bitcoin prices are no longer driven by retail sentiment, but more by macro liquidity — institutions' dollar-cost averaging strategies (like BlackRock's monthly investment of 500 million USD) will provide long-term support for Bitcoin.

3. Bull market initiation signals: remember two price points

If Bitcoin can stabilize above 105,000 USD before November 15 and break through the resistance level of 108,000 USD by the end of the month, it will confirm the start of a small bull market. The target price can refer to the 1.618 times extension of the 2024 high point (73,000 USD), which is 118,000 USD, with conservative estimates of a 20%-30% increase.

Conclusion: 100,000 - 105,000 USD is the layout window, don't miss it!

The end of the US government shutdown essentially opened a "liquidity valve" for the crypto market. The release of TGA funds, institutional inflows, and the resonance of the halving cycle—these three factors will push Bitcoin to start a small bull market in the next 3-6 months.

For ordinary investors, there's no need to chase the highs; just gradually accumulate in the range of 100,000 - 105,000 USD, while closely monitoring TGA balance, ETF fund flows, and policy implementation rhythms, avoiding regulatory and trapped position pitfalls.

The 2024 ETF bull market has proven that when traditional financial liquidity comes in, cryptocurrencies are often the best choice for excess returns. Now the opportunity is once again in front of you; are you ready to seize it? Let's discuss in the comments how high you think Bitcoin can go!

Do you want me to help you organize a practical checklist for Bitcoin's small bull market layout, including key indicator tracking sheets, entry and exit point suggestions, and risk avoidance guidelines? #山寨币市场回暖