Brothers,
When the funding rate begins to invert,
It indicates that shorts are celebrating.
But the experience in the crypto circle tells us:
Every time there is a short celebration,
It is often the last feast.
🧮 1. Data presented: the market is 'inverted', but it is not a crash
According to Coinglass data,
As of today early morning:
BTC perpetual contract funding rate dropped to –0.008%;
ETH dropped to –0.006%;
Mainstream coins like ZEC, SOL, BNB have an average rate of –0.004%;
The total open interest across the network still reached 12.8 billion USD,
It has not significantly decreased.
What does it mean?
Shorts are paying,
Longs are receiving interest.
This is not a surrender signal,
this is the starting point of excessive bearish funding.
⚙️ Two, Causal Logic: Rate inversion = overly bearish sentiment
Funding rate inversion actually reflects a market sentiment imbalance.
Simply put:
When too many people short,
the system will make them pay interest.
at this time, short positions are no longer smart money,
but it follows the crowd sentiment.
Historical experience tells us👇
2023/08 BTC Rate Inversion –0.012% → Three days later rises +7.4%;
2024/03 ETH Rate Inversion –0.009% → Five days later rebounds +11%;
2025/02 BTC Inversion –0.010% → Next week closes positive +9.1%.
Inversion is not a precursor to a crash,
is the fuel for the rebound.
🧩 Three, Structural Logic: Bearish frenzy = Main force changing positions
the current market situation is actually very clear:
Retail investors are shorting,
The main force is accumulating,
the market is 'squeezing the shorts'.
On-chain data shows:
BTC main force wallet net inflow of 18,000 BTC in the past 48 hours;
Spot buy orders on Binance and OKX are synchronously increasing;
the market value of stablecoins has stopped falling and rebounded +0.4%.
What does it mean?
The main force is using the leverage of bears,
stacking their own long cost zone.
The bears are getting more excited,
the quieter the main force.
Silence means—they are laying out.
🧠 Four, Deep Logic: Inversion is a blind spot of human nature
The biggest illusion in the crypto world is:
'Negative rate = poor market.'
In fact, the opposite is true.
Inversion represents longs pulling back, and bears overextending.
the outcome of overextension is always the same:
Reverse liquidation.
the bears think they are earning interest,
In fact, it's energizing the main force.
Every time they think 'this wave is stable',
the market will tell them with ten bullish candles—
you've stabilized for nothing.
💥 Five, Conclusion: This is not a crash, but a prelude to harvesting
Brothers,
don't be scared by negative rates,
this inversion looks more like the main force's last 'cleaning action'.
because when the market is unanimously bearish,
The direction of the market,
has often already changed.
I judge:
👉 BTC will maintain for 1–3 days in the negative rate zone;
👉 The main force will trigger a 'short squeeze rebound' at the beginning of next week;
👉 Bears are very likely to be liquidated in the range of 103,000–106,000.
💬
Funding rate inversion,
It's not a panic signal, but an energy accumulation.
The bears are feasting,
but they don't know—
This meal is on the main force's tab.$BTC
