According to CoinGecko data, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached a historic high of $4.4 trillion on October 6, but sharply fell by about 20% in the following month, nearly wiping out the cumulative gains since the beginning of the year, leaving only 2.5%.
This round of adjustment occurred almost simultaneously with the valuation correction of AI technology stocks, while the Meme coins and alternative coins favored by retail investors became hard-hit areas, with declines significantly higher than mainstream assets.
Market correction: The gains from the soaring October were swallowed in January.
The cryptocurrency market has almost erased all the gains of the previous ten months in just a few weeks.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 after consecutive drops but showed signs of a rebound during last Friday's closing stage, rising back above $103,000.
Despite some stabilization, it has still retraced about 18% compared to the historical high of $120,000 set on October 6.
(This week, BTC has broken through the $100,000 mark twice and then quickly rebounded)
This deep adjustment has made some institutions on Wall Street uneasy. Today's Bitcoin is seen as a barometer for the high volatility sector of the US stock market, and the previously reliable strategy of 'buying the dip' is gradually failing, leading to increased market hesitation and a noticeable tightening of liquidity.
Current analysis and strategy of Bitcoin's trend
From the 4-hour chart, it can be seen that after BTC hit the support area, it quickly returned above $100,700, which is a good long position I mentioned yesterday. I also continued to urge everyone in the group to participate in this long position. Bitcoin is currently blocked by the same resistance area as before during the rebound from the previous overselling. So now we will focus on whether it can break through. If it can break through, I will look for the previous high of $107,000. If it cannot break through, BTC will continue to oscillate for a while. There isn't much movement over the weekend, and I have no intention of opening new positions.
ETH supplementary analysis
Ethereum (ETH) is also hindered near its previous high, and we need to observe its price performance in the support area and around $3,600.
The trend of ETH largely depends on the directional judgment of BTC. In contrast, ETH currently appears weaker; if BTC fails to drive a sentiment recovery, the rebound space for ETH remains constrained.
Altcoin anomaly: The rise of old coins and new logic of 'self-proving value'
As mainstream coins enter consolidation, some veteran altcoins like ICP, FIL, ORDI, and FET have shown strong surges, sparking heated discussions in the market.
A large number of 'hindsight analyses' appeared on social media, claiming:
ICP technology is being redefined - as the capabilities of @caffeineai are showcased, the market is starting to rediscover its underlying architecture value.
However, this is only part of the reason. The core technological potential of ICP far exceeds the absorption capacity of the current crypto ecosystem, and the true driving force comes from deeper logic.
The DFINITY 2.0 strategy launched by founder @dominic_w focuses on AI-native cloud computing infrastructure, benchmarking against traditional tech giants like AWS, which has sparked interest from off-market funds and led the market to reassess ICP using 'US stock-style valuation'.
From a Crypto Native perspective, the real 'core logic' driving ICP's current rise mainly has two points:
The market has grown weary of the 'PVP false prosperity' without application landing, while ICP's infrastructure capability and no-code application potential provide the industry with new imaginative space.
The small paid commercial scenarios brought by the x402 module have opened a business loop of 'free use + automatic payment service' in Web3 for ICP.
Although ICP's 'free application model' was previously questioned for weakening developer activity, with the combination of caffeine's low-cost construction tools and x402 Agent's seamless payment mechanism, this model has instead become a new competitive advantage.
In summary, the rise of ICP aligns with the great trend of AI and also reflects the regenerative ability of a traditional internet business model in the Crypto environment.
This has enabled it to achieve a dual breakthrough from technical value to business model during market downturns.
'Altcoin' is not the original sin; the key is whether it can self-prove its value.
The market often says: 'The value of altcoins is zero.'
But this statement is only half true - projects that cannot self-prove their value will tend to approach zero infinitely.
Once a certain token gains market recognition through technology, product strength, or narrative, the outcome is often drastically different.
$ZEC, which regained vitality after being mentioned by Naval;
The $ICP that amazed the market with Caffeine's product strength;
Accumulating momentum during multiple AI booms, $VIRTUAL;
$HYPE, which remains unshaken amidst the CEX trust crisis;
and $FLOCK, which is climbing tenaciously from the ruins……
What the market has truly washed away is not the group of 'altcoins', but those shell projects that package concepts but essentially plunder liquidity.
And old coins with technical accumulation, ecological support, and community consensus are waiting for a 'selected' moment——
A point of explosion for Naval, Caffeine, and x402, or just an opportunity for the market to understand it anew.
Personal opinion: Wild speculators push old coins, while new speculators struggle to gain momentum.
Most old coins actually have no strong whale control; they just suffered from long-term sideways movements, leading to holders being washed out and market makers being less active, thus giving 'wild speculators' space to enter and hype.
These wild speculators often come from traditional markets, and their aggressive pacing results in astonishing short-term gains for old coins.
In contrast, those projects with 'whales' tend to show more stable trends, but lack emotional explosiveness and often present a slow rise structure with small steps.
Finally:
After this round of plummet, the market is reallocating liquidity.
The solid support of Bitcoin indicates that bottom sentiment is brewing, while the structural rebound of the altcoin sector reminds us——
True value is never buried; it just awaits rediscovery.
