«Employment in the USA increased by 42,000 in October — the highest since July 2025».
Most people's reaction is the same:
— «BTC is going to fly now!»
— «We need to urgently do something!»
The problem is that «doing something» without a model = just a lottery bet.
🧩 How this news connects with crypto theoretically:
— strong employment → the economy «holds up» → the Fed can keep rates higher for longer;
— higher rates → money becomes more expensive → risk assets (stocks, crypto) under pressure;
— expectations are more important than the actual number: the market moves not on the fact, but on the difference from expectations.
That is, the phrase ‘+42 000’ by itself means nothing until you know:
what the market was pricing in before the release
how this difference changes expectations for rates
where in this picture your risk on the trade is
🎲 A typical trader's mistake:
— sees a ‘beautiful’ headline,
— enters the market in the first minutes,
— catches chaotic spikes and gets stopped out,
— ends up feeling that ‘the market is being manipulated.’
In fact, he just played a game with maximum volatility and a zero model.
✅ A more mature approach to news:
1️⃣ Do not trade the first reaction — consider it as noise.
2️⃣ Decide in advance what % of your deposit you are willing to risk on the idea that the ‘market has overestimated the news.’
3️⃣ Understand how the news affects the overall picture (rates, dollar, risk appetite), rather than trying to ‘guess’ a single candlestick movement.
I treat macro news as triggers for small controlled experiments, not as signals to ‘go all in.’
In the pinned post, I describe how I incorporate such ideas into my work system on Binance.
💾 If you also want to treat news as data, not drama — save this post to return to these points at the next release of statistics.
❓Your style on news:
Comment with one word: WATCHING (just observing) or TRADING (with a conscious plan).
👍 Like — if such analyses help you to react less to headlines.
🔁 Send this post to someone who likes to ‘guess the market's reaction to news’ — let them at least once look at this as a risk management task.
🔔 If you resonate with the approach of ‘numbers + risk + no hysteria’ — subscribe. I will further analyze other news and situations through the lens of expected value and deposit management.
#macroeconomic #TradingTales #binanc #ADPJobsSurge #bitcoin $BTC $ETH
