1. The "Musk Dependence Syndrome" of Dogecoin is on the verge of collapse
In December 2024, after Dogecoin (DOGE) reached a peak of $0.18, Musk completed a historic cash-out (market speculation suggests the cash-out scale exceeded $3 billion). He did not mention the cryptocurrency in public for 11 months thereafter. Although Dogecoin did not experience a "bloodbath," the underlying logic has fundamentally changed:
Support from the grassroots: As of October 2025, the number of Dogecoin holding addresses remains above 4.8 million, with the core community holding a 63% share, becoming a key price buffer;
Indirect heat maintenance: Musk has only maintained a weak connection by retweeting the social updates of Dogecoin founder Billy Markus, without making any substantive 'endorsement' actions;
Prices remain under pressure: During the same period of overall cryptocurrency market correction, Dogecoin's decline reached 24%, shrinking 45% from its 2024 peak, with a current market value of $12.6 billion, having exited the top ten rankings of cryptocurrency market values.
In contrast, Musk-related concept coins are in an even more difficult situation:
Mask coin has dropped to $0.003, down 98.7% from its historical high, entering the 'penny coin' range;
Meme coin Grok (now integrated into the X platform) has a market value of only $120 million, evaporating 92% from its peak;
Musk coin's average daily trading volume is less than $5 million, just one step away from 'zeroing out'.
2. After political division, Musk's 'Tesla-first' strategy
In June 2025, Musk publicly broke with the Trump administration over the opposition to the 'big and beautiful' tax bill (which eliminated subsidies for new energy vehicles) and fully returned to Tesla after stepping down from the White House 'Department of Government Efficiency'. This shift has brought significant market differentiation:
Tesla's strong rebound: Through capacity optimization and the launch of new models, Tesla's delivery volume reached 497,000 units in Q3 2025 (year-on-year + 7.4%), with revenue hitting a historic high of $28.1 billion, and the stock price rebounding 62% from the June low, returning to the historical high range;
Cryptocurrency concepts fail: During Tesla's stock price surge, Dogecoin and related concept coins showed no correlated reaction, with average daily volatility dropping to 1.8%, a significant decline from 12% during Musk's 'endorsement' period, confirming the market's collapse of confidence in 'Musk coins'.
3. Dogecoin's mainstream status is teetering.
Industry analysis points out that Dogecoin's identity as a 'mainstream coin' heavily relies on Musk's celebrity effect: When he acquired Twitter in 2022, Dogecoin's daily increase reached 62%; in January 2025, Musk changed his name to 'KekiusMaximus', still driving Dogecoin to soar by 20% in a single day. However, the current situation has undergone a qualitative change:
Exposure gap: Musk has not mentioned Dogecoin for 11 consecutive months, and the social media discussion volume about Dogecoin has decreased by 78% year-on-year;
Funding continues to flow out: In the last three months, institutional funds have net flowed out $1.4 billion, and the exchange's positions have increased to 27% of the circulating supply, accumulating selling pressure;
Compliance risks have increased: Since 2022, Musk has faced a total of 3 class-action lawsuits for 'manipulating Dogecoin prices', with the latest claim amount reaching $258 billion, further constraining his space for speculation.
If Musk remains silent, Dogecoin is likely to follow in the footsteps of Litecoin, gradually exiting the mainstream trading market and becoming a niche community token;
4. New moves to break the circle: Flying cars + cryptographic communication, X Chat may become the next wealth windfall;
Recently, Musk revealed two strategic-level projects in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, showing a clear intention of 'starting anew':
Flying cars: Prototype expected to be released by the end of 2025, using vertical take-off and landing technology, with a range of 300 kilometers, target price set at $99,000, currently has completed 5 rounds of testing;
Cryptographic communication application X Chat: Positioned as a 'privacy-first super app', core highlights include:
Point-to-point encrypted transmission, using a SHA-256 hash algorithm similar to Bitcoin, with data not uploaded to the cloud;
Supports cross-platform interoperability, integrating 560 million monthly active users of the X platform (formerly Twitter);
Built-in digital wallet function, suspected to reserve a coin issuance interface;
The market has strong expectations for X Chat's token issuance, referencing Telegram's TON coin (peak market value $20 billion), combined with Musk's technological appeal and user base, the industry generally predicts its token valuation could exceed $30 billion. For ordinary investors, the best participation timing may be during the project public testing phase (expected Q1 2026), acquiring airdrops through completing social tasks, inviting friends, etc., replicating the wealth effect of early TON and UNI.
Conclusion: From cryptocurrency hype to physical innovation, Musk's transformation insights.
Musk's strategic shift essentially marks a return from 'traffic hype' to 'hardcore technology'. The rise and fall of Dogecoin confirms the temporary nature of the 'celebrity effect', while the potential of new projects like X Chat lies in its dual support from technological barriers and user ecosystems. For investors, there is a need to be wary of crypto assets that rely solely on celebrity endorsements, while focusing on innovative projects with real application scenarios — after all, the true wealth code is always hidden in technological changes that solve real needs.
