📈 $BTC（2025-10-30 08:35）｜Bullish-Bearish Trend Index: 38 / 100（Phase Weakening, Bears in Control）
BTC is currently approximately 110,441 USD, down -1.7% in the past 24 hours, marking the third consecutive day of decline, breaking below the key support level of 111,000 USD. The market structure indicates bearish momentum dominating, short-term rebounds lack strength, and the medium-term trend is entering an adjustment period. If BTC cannot stabilize above 109,500 USD, it may further retest the 107,800 USD area. If a quick rebound breaks through 111,800 USD, it can be considered a short-term stop-loss signal.
🔹 Multi-Cycle K-Line Trend Judgment:
15-minute chart: MA7, MA25, MA99 all align bearishly; MACD death cross expands, green bars continue to grow; RSI ~41, weak rebound but insufficient momentum.
1-hour chart: MA7 crosses below MA25 and MA99, bearish patterns are evident; MACD double lines are descending and widening; RSI ~36.1, still on the edge of oversold.
4-hour chart: MA7 descends through MA25, bearish trend continues; MACD green bars amplify, momentum continues to release; RSI ~36.9, showing weak extension in the short to medium term.
Daily chart: MA7 continues to pressure down, MACD death cross signal strengthens, green bars increase; RSI ~45.7, entering the lower end of neutral, indicating confirmation of trend weakening.
Weekly chart: MA7 is above MA25 but the angle is flattening; MACD red bars noticeably shorten, fast line accelerates downward; RSI ~51.0, indicating long-term momentum slows but has not yet reversed.
📊 Technical Indicators Analysis:
MACD: Consistent death cross across all cycles (15m, 1H, 4H, Daily), indicating dominant bearish trend; weekly red bars shrink, signaling a decrease in mid-term upward momentum.
RSI: RSI distribution across cycles is in the range of 36-51, short-term oversold, medium-term weak, market momentum is clearly insufficient.
Moving Average System: Short-term moving averages are fully bearishly aligned, with MA99 (approximately 112,100 USD) becoming a key resistance level for rebounds.
Trading Volume: Increased by about 15% compared to the previous day, but is a volume increase on the decline, indicating that bearish funds dominate the market.
🌐 Macroeconomic News (last 48 hours):
1. 【Federal Reserve officials make hawkish statements】 reaffirming that “inflation is still above target,” the dollar index has risen to 106.2, putting pressure on risk assets.
2. 【BTC ETF has seen a net outflow for two consecutive days】 totaling approximately 380 million USD, the largest outflow this month.
3. 【On-chain capital flow is cooling】 with net inflows to exchanges increasing by 12,500 BTC, significant short-term selling pressure.
