There is a 99% chance on Polymarket that $ETH will hit a ne | Crypto PM on Binance Square

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There is a 99% chance on Polymarket that $ETH  will hit a new all time high before 2026.

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$POL is down 5.5% in the last 24h, underperforming the broader crypto market (-2.2%). Key drivers: Technical breakdown – Price broke below critical support at $0.203. Delayed upgrade impact – Recent throughput upgrades failed to sustain bullish momentum. Altcoin weakness – Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.3%, draining liquidity from mid-cap tokens. Deep Dive of @Polygon #Polygon 1. Technical Breakdown (Bearish Impact) Overview: POL broke below the $0.203 support level highlighted in multiple forecasts, triggering stop-losses. It now trades below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.195, 30-day SMA: $0.208). What this means: The 7-day RSI at 31.94 signals oversold conditions but hasn’t historically prevented further declines in POL’s bearish structure. Next support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ($0.175), aligning with October’s swing low. What to watch: A daily close above $0.195 (current pivot point) could signal short-term relief. 2. Upgrade Momentum Fades (Mixed Impact) Overview: Polygon’s October 28 partnership with Manifold Trading aimed to boost DeFi liquidity via institutional-grade market-making tools . However, POL fell 5.3% post-announcement. What this means: Markets likely priced in the upgrade pre-launch, reflecting a “sell the news” reaction. Sustained adoption of AggLayer’s new tools will be critical to reverse skepticism about Polygon’s scaling narrative. 3. Altcoin Liquidity Drain (Bearish Impact) Overview: Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 59.3% (up 0.44% in 24h), while the Altcoin Season Index fell to 28. Traders rotated to perceived safety amid market-wide fear (Fear & Greed Index: 31). What this means: POL’s 30-day correlation with BTC strengthened to 0.87, but its beta (volatility relative to BTC) remains high at 1.2x – amplifying downside during risk-off shifts. Spot volumes for POL fell 22% WoW, indicating fading retail interest. @Polygon #Polygon $POL

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