Ethereum has twice hit the $48,000 resistance level—Is ETH's $5,000 target under threat?
What is putting pressure on the liquidity supply for Ethereum?
Ethereum institutions' hoarding behavior and the 1.3 million ETH queued for staking are tightening the circulation, reinforcing $45,000 as a key support level.
Can ETH regain momentum in the fourth quarter?
If the bulls turn $45,000 into a strong foundation, it may lead to a rise to $47,000 by the end of the year, supported by Grayscale's 890k ETH lockup and ETF inflows, similar to July's surge.
Ethereum's [ETH] target of $5,000 seems increasingly out of reach.
Since reaching a high of $49,000 in mid-August, ETH has twice dropped below $48,000, creating a short-term resistance zone.
On-chain, the ETH/BTC ratio has been grinding sideways around 0.036, showing no relative strength compared to Bitcoin [BTC].
In short, the kind of momentum and rotation that drove ETH to rise over 70% and reach an all-time high from June to August is no longer present, resulting in a clear divergence. Does this mean that the upward momentum for Ethereum in the fourth quarter is weakening?
Ethereum's next move depends on solid fundamentals.
Ethereum's structural resilience is being tested.
In less than 72 hours, ETH dropped 2.7% from $4,756, marking its second breach of the $48,000 resistance level. Previously, ETH reached a high of $4,766 on September 13, triggering a 20% correction over two weeks.
In fact, this cycle is the weakest ETH has seen in three months. The bulls failed to push the price to a reliable bottom at $45,000, leading to a pullback to early August levels. To avoid a repeat of the fluctuations, ETH needs to rebound again like it did in July.
At that time, ETH broke through the $24,000 support level, driving its price up over 70% to reach an all-time high.
To replicate this cycle, the bulls now need to turn $45,000 into a strong support level to clear the way for a potential rise to $5,000. In fact, if similar rebound momentum continues, Ethereum could approach $4,700 by the end of the year.
Notably, institutions have been ahead of this setup.
Grayscale locked 857,000 ETH, enhancing support for the fourth quarter.
Essentially, large enterprises seem to be orchestrating a supply shock.
Ethereum ETF inflows have reached $1.3 billion this month alone. Approximately 5.38% flowed into Grayscale's ETH ETF, showing a clear difference from the cycle in September.
At that time, the outflow from ETH ETF reached $800 million, while ETH dropped 15% from $45,000 and fell below $4,000 during a sharp vertical correction in that cycle. This time, the bulls seem to be building a solid foundation.
Grayscale has reported supporting an additional 857,000 ETH (worth $3.8 billion) that has been staked.
In fact, in less than 72 hours, Grayscale locked up 890,000 ETH, pushing ETH's total staked value (TVS) to $36.17 million.
In addition, as shown in the above chart, Ethereum's entry queue surged by 1.19 million during the same period.
In short, there will be 1.3 million ETH queued for staking in the next three weeks.
With institutions hoarding, the liquidity supply of ETH is tightening, solidifying the support at $45,000 and laying a strong foundation for ETH to reach $47,000 by the end of the fourth quarter.
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