October Core Events Outlook: Data and System Dual-Drive, Rhythm Determines Market Direction
October is a critical window period, with Federal Reserve policy signals, core economic data, and Crypto regulatory dynamics jointly dominating market rhythm, centered around the core logic of 'data guiding policy, policy reshaping compliance'.
1. October 9: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Speech (First Stop for Policy Direction)
Key attention on two major signals that directly affect market expectations:
• Whether to frequently mention 'economic slowdown' or 'cooling labor market';
• Whether to reinforce 'data dependence' and 'meeting-by-meeting' decision-making principles.
• If releasing 'weak economic signals + dovish statements': the market may preemptively trade 'end-of-month easing' expectations, alleviating pressure on risk assets;
• If signals are ambiguous/contradictory + hawkish wording: volatility will intensify before the end-of-month interest rate decision, requiring subsequent data verification.
2. October 15: U.S. September CPI Data (End-of-Month Policy Tone Decider)
As the core economic data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the September CPI directly determines the 'possibility boundary' for policy easing at the end of October, which is a key basis for judging the rhythm of liquidity shifts.
3. October 18: U.S. Orthodox Church Crypto Affairs Roundtable (Crypto Regulatory Trends Observation)
The meeting focuses on 'financial regulation and privacy', serving as an important window for dialogue between the Crypto field and traditional financial systems, signaling the industry's compliance process.
4. October 21: Federal Reserve Payment Innovation Conference (Core Signal of Crypto Entering Mainstream)
Three major topics: stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization will be discussed together, marking that Crypto is officially being integrated into the mainstream financial framework, with the Federal Reserve's compliance system building for the crypto field entering an acceleration phase.
5. October 29: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (End of Month Event Grand Finale)
Whether the decision can shift from 'verbal easing' to 'substantial easing' depends on two major pre-release data points:
• October 3 U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data (not yet released)
• October 15 to be released U.S. September CPI Data.
Current market expectations indicate a 96% probability of a 25bp rate cut this month $BTC