1. Reflection: The Previous Altcoin Season – The Boom of Major Names

During the 2021–2022 cycle, the crypto market witnessed one of the strongest periods of excitement in history. Capital flooded into the market, and top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Binance Coin (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE)… all experienced increases of tens, even hundreds of times.
If calculated by the MAG7 Index (including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, DOGE, ADA), the performance of this basket during the 2021–2023 period outperformed Bitcoin by nearly 94%, especially during the peak bull run of 2021, with MAG7's increase "crushing" BTC in both profitability and speed.

At that time, Altseason will occur in the true sense — when Bitcoin rises sharply to pave the way, then capital spreads to large-cap altcoins, followed by mid-cap and low-cap. Virtually any token with an attractive narrative could x10, x50 in just a few weeks.

2. The 2024 phase: Bitcoin leads, Altcoins 'lag behind'

However, as we move into 2024, the picture is completely different.
For most of the time, MAG7 has been underperforming compared to BTC by 10%–20%, indicating that capital is primarily focused on Bitcoin — the asset considered the safest in the post-halving cycle. This caution stems from a macroeconomic context that remains unstable: high interest rates, global liquidity not truly abundant, along with the SEC maintaining a strict stance on many types of tokens.

Despite this, starting from Q4 2024, the trend begins to shift. MAG7 is starting to outperform BTC, reminiscent of the first signals of a true Altseason.

3. Policy turning point: Trump and the 'Crypto-friendly' era

The biggest changing factor lies in politics and policy.
During Donald Trump's term, the clear direction was to be more open to the crypto industry. The White House and SEC are expected to establish a transparent legal framework, helping businesses and investment funds participate in the market legally, safely, and more confidently.

In addition, the Trump family is directly investing in DeFi, NFT, and stablecoin projects – this is not only symbolic but also has the potential to create real capital flowing into 'blue-chip' DeFi or Layer 1 projects. As this large capital moves, the market will witness a top-down spreading effect — from the top assets in MAG7, down to mid-cap, and finally to smaller projects.

4. MAG7 – the new 'Blue-chip basket' of the market

If in 2021 investors could easily multiply their assets by randomly choosing altcoins, 2025 may be completely different.
The concentration of capital is now more evident than ever:

  • BTC & ETH remain the foundational asset classes, attracting institutional capital.

  • XRP benefits from an increasingly clear legal framework and acceptance by traditional financial institutions.

  • DOGE serves as a 'media play' thanks to the influence of the community and political factors.

  • SOL is the most prominent representative of the new, high-speed Layer 1 ecosystem, with outstanding performance, and is becoming the 'Ethereum of retail'.

As MAG7 has begun to outperform BTC in recent months, this indicates that capital is shifting from Bitcoin to leading altcoins, a clear signal of the early stage of Altseason.

5. Outlook for 2025: The Altcoin season will 'arrive', but differently than before

If 2021 was the 'Public Altseason' — where any token could soar, then 2025 may be the 'Selective Altseason':

  • Capital is concentrating on assets with solid foundations, backed by political or institutional support.

  • DeFi blue-chip (such as Aave, Uniswap, Curve, Lido…) may make a strong comeback as liquidity increases and DeFi yields become more attractive than traditional markets.

  • Layer 2, RWA, and AI x Blockchain could be the narratives that drive waves during the cycle.

Smaller projects, while still having breakout opportunities, will have to wait for the effect of capital flow transmission — from BTC → MAG7 → top DeFi → Mid-cap → Meme / Low-cap.

6. Conclusion

The biggest difference between the previous Altcoin season and the current Altcoin season lies in the quality of capital flow and the level of concentration.
Instead of the chaotic spread seen in 2021, the 2025 cycle may be led by top-tier assets, with policy support, and clearer fundamentals.

Altseason will still come — but it will be more orderly, more sustainable, and harder to catch the wave.

Investors who understand the structure of capital flow and the position of MAG7 will be the first to benefit in the new cycle of crypto.