As of October 3, 2025, the current period's 4-hour candlestick chart for Ethereum (ETH) presents a typical pattern of stabilization and weak rebound after a decline. From the recent price trajectory, the market has undergone a sharp downward adjustment: compared to the price benchmark of 00:00 on October 3, there was a significant plunge, during which it undoubtedly broke through the local low formed at 04:00 on October 3, while also showing a noticeable decline compared to the price level at 16:00 on October 2. However, after the continuous decline, the market has released short-term stabilization signals, with the last 4-hour candlestick forming a “hammer” pattern that suggests a bottom reversal, and it closed as a bullish candlestick with a closing price significantly higher than the opening price. The emergence of this pattern usually indicates that the selling pressure from the bears is nearing its end, and the bulls are beginning to gather strength to attempt a counterattack, although the rebound strength still needs subsequent volume verification.
In terms of the interaction between price and volume, the current market presents a divergence characteristic of 'price rising while volume declining.' The trading volume in the last 4 hours has significantly shrunk compared to the previous hours. Although the price has rebounded based on the 'hammer' pattern, the volume has not followed suit. This phenomenon of asynchronous volume and price clearly indicates that the current upward momentum is relatively weak, and the short-term rebound lacks solid financial support. Market participants are mostly in a wait-and-see state, and both bulls and bears have yet to form a consensus on the subsequent trend, making the sustainability of the rebound a test.
The combination of technical indicators conveys complex market signals, overall indicating that the market is at a critical stage of adjustment and the struggle between bulls and bears. In terms of the MACD indicator, there is currently no clear trend direction, and it remains in a volatile pattern; although the MACD histogram has been consistently in positive territory, the height of the bars is gradually shortening. This change directly reflects that the bullish forces that held the advantage earlier are gradually diminishing, and the upward driving force is continuously weakening. The KDJ indicator has no clear crossover signals, but the KDJ value has risen to the overbought area of 93, indicating that there is a strong technical correction pressure in the short term. On the moving average system, the MA10 (10-period moving average) values at the two key time points of 04:00 and 08:00 on October 3rd are both greater than the MA30 (30-period moving average). However, considering the overall price trend and trading volume performance, the market has not yet escaped the repair cycle following previous declines. Notably, the RSI value has surpassed 70, entering the overbought area, suggesting that prices are likely to face the risk of a pullback, compounded by the existence of volume-price divergence, and there are no fundamental signs of a fundamental trend reversal in the medium to long term.
Combining the 4-hour candlestick technical patterns, volume changes, and indicator signals, the old horse pointed out the core trading reference points under the current market conditions, providing clear guidance for bullish and bearish strategies. In terms of the bullish strategy, two tiered buying points are set to control risk: the first buying point is set at 4254.53, suitable for entry after a short-term correction; the second buying point is further lowered to 4046.7973, corresponding to the recent key support area, suitable for conservative investors to position. At the same time, the bullish stop-loss point is clearly defined at 4019.25, which is slightly lower than the recent lowest point of 4039.45. If the price effectively falls below this level, it means that the short-term rebound pattern is completely over, and decisive stop-loss actions should be taken to avoid greater risk. In terms of the bearish strategy, the first and second selling points are set at 4588.0 and 4537.04, respectively. Both of these points are close to the recent resistance level of 4588.0, where market selling pressure is concentrated, making it an ideal target area for short-selling in the short term; the short-selling stop-loss point is set at 4523.09, which is close to the recent highest point of 4500.59, effectively preventing the risk of prices breaking through resistance and forming unilateral upward movement.
From the perspective of market structure, ETH is currently in a clear range-bound state. The recent support level focuses on 4046.0, which is not only an important stabilization area for previous price corrections but also highly overlaps with the second buying point, having strong technical support significance. If prices continue to decline subsequently, this level will become the core defense point in the short term. The recent resistance level is 4588.0, which has been a pressure area that has been attacked multiple times without success, and it is also the main target for short-selling strategies, making it difficult to break through. In addition, the highest point formed in the recent market is 4500.59, and the lowest point is 4039.45, with the current price operating within this range. The key to the subsequent market lies in the breakout situation of the price against the upper and lower bounds of the range and the degree of volume cooperation: if the price stabilizes above the resistance level of 4588.0 with increased volume, it may open up further upward space; if it falls below the support level of 4046.0, it may trigger a new round of adjustments. Investors need to closely monitor the dynamics of attack and defense at these two key points to grasp the short-term trend direction.
Pay attention so that the old horse doesn't get lost; those who want to get on board should hurry up.
