The US government is about to shut down (probability 93%)! Is a black swan about to happen in the cryptocurrency market?
Now the deadline for the US Congress to finalize temporary funding is getting closer, and if an agreement can't be reached, some government departments will have to shut down—hundreds of thousands of civil servants will not receive their salaries, and US economic data will also be unable to be published normally.
Even betting on Polymarket, there are over $10 million betting on "government shutdown," and the market thinks there's a 93% probability that this will happen, causing a bit of panic among everyone.
Let's look at history: shutdowns don't have much impact on the market.
The US government has shut down before; to put it simply, it's just "politicians arguing," and it doesn't count as a major crisis:
- 1980s-90s: Shutdowns usually ended in a few days, with little impact on the market.
- 1995-96: It lasted 21 days, and the stock market actually rose by 1% because everyone knew an agreement would eventually be reached, and the economy itself was doing okay.
- 2013: It lasted 16 days, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, and still ended up gaining 30% for the year, as everyone felt this was just "politicians having fun."
- 2018-19: The longest shutdown in history lasted 35 days, and in fact, the stock market fell mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes; later, when the rate hikes stopped, the stock market rebounded again.
People in the cryptocurrency market should not act rashly!
Now the market has already anticipated that "the government will shut down," and it has little impact on the stock market, but the cryptocurrency market has a lot of leverage, and speculators are likely to use this situation to "wash out" leveraged traders.
- Those who directly bought cryptocurrencies (spot): Don't panic, after the shutdown ends, the price of cryptocurrencies will likely come back; those with money can take advantage of the current drop to buy a little bit.
- Those trading contracts with leverage: Be very careful! Manage your positions well and don't let your money disappear all at once.
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