The market enters a 'sensitive period': Ethereum must hold 3850, altcoin's main line surfaces.
The recent market increasingly tests one's mindset. Ethereum has already retraced to the EMA15 weekly support (about 3850), while the 120-day moving average (usually seen as the bull-bear boundary) is currently around 3540. In this round of adjustment, it has also made up a lot; if ETH's weekly line effectively breaks below 3850 before 8 AM next Monday, I will completely switch my mindset.
The overall strategy has not changed: only long, not short, continue to layout for the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and altcoin ETF trends.
Remember: opportunities come from declines, risks come from rises.
📉 ETH's trend is urgent, BTC pressure is increasing.
From a technical structure perspective, if Ethereum's monthly line can't recover by the end of the month, the short-term rhythm will become much more complicated. The market's energy has indeed picked up, but there are still not many big opportunities.
On the Bitcoin side, if it breaks below 110000, those who can't hold on shouldn't force it; preserving your capital is more important than anything.
In terms of short-term rhythm:
BTC if it can't rebound above 111500, we need to look at the support of 100000.
ETH if it can't stabilize at 4250, it may test the bottom at 3500.
🪙 Altcoins: Waiting for the big coin's aunt to pin, the main line has surfaced.
The rhythm of altcoins is now very evident: #UNI, #DOGE have all reached strong support zones, but actions will only happen after the big coin and Ethereum's 'pin' ends.
Next, Sister Meow has selected two main lines:
DEX track: The pattern is basically determined;
Stable track: Focus on digging into 'Dragon Two, Dragon Three, Dragon Four', among which the leading one is undoubtedly #XPL.
In terms of short-term strategy, I prefer coins that have had long decline cycles because they often lead the rebound. For example, $BONK and #PENGU have been adjusting for the past two months and may again lead the rise.
Additionally, some coins that just experienced a sharp decline may welcome a short-term rebound, such as $FORM and WLFI, but this rebound does not signify a trend reversal. It's best to first see if they can stabilize in fluctuations before considering any involvement.
It's not ruled out that in the latter half of Q4, large-cap Meme coins will become the market focus again. Because this round has been led by value coins and fundamental coins, while the Meme sector has been consolidating since the big surge in May. When it rotates back to them, the market may see a new explosion.
🪙 Track outlook: RWA has not picked up, SUI is at a key threshold.
In the RWA track, the strongest in terms of capital scale and market share is still #ONDO, but its price has not been able to rise. I believe this is mainly because the wind in this track has not truly arrived.
Another noteworthy point is #SUI, which has been consolidating in a range for almost half a year. Whichever side loosens first could lead to a major breakthrough. Hold on to your spot!
✅ Summary:
ETH's key support is at 3850, breaking below it requires a shift to a bearish mindset;
If BTC can't hold 111500, we need to guard against the 100000 mark;
The main line of altcoins is in DEX and Stable, Meme may rise again in the fourth quarter;
RWA has not yet picked up, SUI is worth focusing on.
At this stage, emotions need to be stable, positions should be light, and plans must be resolute.
Don't be led by market fluctuations; keep the green hills, and you won't worry about firewood.
The market is coming in waves; it's easy to get lost when going solo.
If you want to seize the next doubling opportunity, feel free to join my circle to exchange ideas with a group of old friends and buy the dip! Let's avoid detours and outperform the next bull market!#美SEC和CFTC加密监管合作
